NFL 2020: Fantasy Football Week 7 Sit n Starts:

It is time for the Week 7 fantasy football players to give us some fantasy value.

The teams on a bye: Baltimore Ravens, Indianapolis Colts, Miami Dolphins, and Minnesota Vikings.

The injuries you have to consider: Philadelphia Eagles, Zach Ertz and Miles Sanders; Cleveland Browns, Baker Mayfield; Pittsburgh Steelers, Diontae Johnson; San Francisco 49ers running back Raheem Mostert

THURSDAY NIGHT GAMES

NEW YORK GIANTS @ PHILADELPHIA EAGLES, 44 O/U, EAGLES 3 FAVORITE

It is hard to believe but this game means something in the division.

START: RUNNING BACK, DEVONTA FREEMAN, NEW YORK GIANTS: Devontae Freeman leads the Giants backfield and it’s not even close.  In Week 6 he was on the field for 73% of the offensive snaps.  So far in his four games he has 51 rushing attempts for 164 yards, 3.22 average, and nine targets for seven receptions.  

With their quarterback play being so erratic, Freeman is the man the Giants should try and lean on for a Thursday Night win. 

SLEEPER: QUARTERBACK, CARSON WENTZ, PHILADELPHIA EAGLES:  Week 6 was the first week Carson Wentz did not throw an interception.  He was sacked six times, but still managed two passing touchdowns and one rushing touchdown.  

The Giants defense is surprisingly stingy to fantasy quarterbacks only giving up 18.3 fantasy points a game.  But if Wentz can eliminate the turnovers, he has the added bonus of getting fantasy points with his feet.

SIT: QUARTERBACK, DANIEL JONES, NEW YORK GIANTS: In 18 career starts, Daniel Jones has committed 17 turnovers.  This included last week’s win against the Washington Football Team where he threw both a touchdown and an interception.  

The Eagles’ defense is nothing to fear, but unfortunately neither is Jones at the moment. 

SUNDAY DAY GAMES

PITTSBURGH STEELERS @ TENNESSEE TITANS, 52.5 O/U, STEELERS 2 FAVORITE

START: QUARTERBACK, BEN ROETHLISBERGER, PITTSBURGH STEELERS: Roethlisberger will be rolling into Tennessee with a 109.1 QBR, 69.1% completion percentage and having tossed 11 touchdowns to one interception.  The Titans have just allowed Deshaun Watson to pass for 335 yards and four touchdowns on them with lesser weapons than Roethlisberger will be bringing to the game. 

SLEEPER: WIDE RECEIVER, JAMES WASHINGTON, PITTSBURGH STEELERS: With Diontae Johnson still out and Ju Ju Smith-Schuster missing in action, James Washington was WR2 for Pittsburgh in Week 6.  Washington led the team in targets with seven.  He finished 4-68-1, for the day.  It also helps that the Titans are giving up ab average of 26.2 fantasy points to the wide receiver position. 

SIT: QUARTERBACK, RYAN TANNEHILL, TENNESSEE TITANS: Ryan Tannehill has been good lately.  This will not be his week.  The Steelers’ defense creates pressure on the quarterback 48%, and they lead the league in sacks, and they are giving up the only 18 fantasy points a game to the quarterback position. 

DETROIT LIONS @ ATLANTA FALCONS, 57 O/U, FALCONS 3 FAVORITE

START: QUARTERBACK, MATTHEW STAFFORD, DETROIT LIONS: The Atlanta Falcons found their winning ways last week.  They are still giving up the most fantasy points to the quarterback position, which included Kirk Cousins 343 yards, three touchdown and three interception performance. 

Matthew Stafford has had at least one touchdown pass and at least 206 passing yards in every game.  This game has the highest over/under for the week and should propel Stafford into top five fantasy status.  

SLEEPER: RUNNING BACK, TODD GURLEY, ATLANTA FALCONS: Todd Gurley only managed 2.4 yards per carry last week.  He did however, have 20 carries double the next man up Brian Hill.   It also helps that his snap counts are increasing. last week he was targeted four times double that of Hill’s targets.  

The Lions are giving up the fourth most fantasy points to the running back position (23.4), Gurley should have a bounce back week. 

SIT: TIGHT END, HAYDEN HURST, ATLANTA FALCONS: Hayden Hurst was on the field for 85% of the offensive snaps in Week 6.  He was targeted four times, had four receptions for 57 yards and a touchdown.  This week he sees a Lions’ defense that is giving up 3.8 fantasy points to the tight end position, that’s fourth best in the NFL.  

CLEVELAND BROWNS @ CINCINNATI BENGALS, 51.5 O/U, BROWNS 3 FAVORITE

START: RUNNING BACK, KAREEM HUNT, CLEVELAND BROWNS: The Cincinnati Bengals have the third worst rushing defense, allowing 854 rushing yards in five games.  With Nick Chubb still out, Hunt is the man in the backfield.  This game is a rematch from Week 2, in which both Chubb and Hunt shared playing time.  In that game Hunt had 86 rushing yards, rushing touchdown, two targets, two receptions, 15 yards and receiving touchdown.  

With the backfield mainly to himself, there is no reason to believe it won’t be better. 

SLEEPER: WIDE RECEIVER, AJ GREEN, CINCINNATI BENGALS: Finally an AJ Green sighting can be confirmed.  Green led the team with 11 targets, but this time he managed to snap eight receptions for 96 yards.  The Browns are giving up the fifth most fantasy points to the wide receiver position.  There is no reason to believe that the most targeted wide receiver on the Bengals can’t reap some of that goodness. 

SIT: QUARTERBACK, BAKER MAYFIELD, CLEVELAND BROWNS: Mayfield was taken out of the game last week.  He is suffering from a rib injury sustained in Week 5.  Before he was removed he had one touchdown, two interceptions and was sacked four times.  It is hard to believe that his ribs are going to magically heal after that beating. 

CAROLINA PANTHERS @ NEW ORLEANS SAINTS, 51.5 O/U, SAINTS 7 FAVORITE

START: QUARTERBACK, TEDDY BRIDGEWATER, CAROLINA PANTHERS: This is a homecoming of sort for Teddy Bridgewater. Last season he led the Saints to a 5-0 record while Drew Brees was out.  Now Bridgewater gets to go against his old team whose defense ranks 24th in points allowed and 19th in passing yards allowed.

Last week Bridgewater had two interceptions.  He had more passing yards Week 5 in the first half against the Falcons than he did all Week 6 against the Chicago Bears.  That doesn’t bode well, except that Chicago is a top ten defense and well…the Saints are not. 

SLEEPER: TIGHT END, IAN THOMAS, CAROLINA PANTHERS: The Saints are allowing the most fantasy points to the tight end position.  Ian Thomas has not been a pivotal part of the Panthers’ offense only seeing 11 targets in six games.  This is the week for him. 

SIT: WIDE RECEIVER, TRE’QUAN SMITH, NEW ORLEANS SAINTS: With the expectation of the return of Michael Thomas, someone has got to be odd man out.  Smith only saw three targets last game and managed eight yards on two receptions.  

The Panthers although slightly porous against the run are sixth against the pass. 

BUFFALO BILLS @ NEW YORK JETS, 46.5 O/U, BILLS 13 FAVORITE

START: QUARTERBACK, JOSH ALLEN, BUFFALO BILLS: Josh Allen has had a difficult two week stretch.  He will now get to go up against the hapless New  York Jets who are giving up 30.8 points per game and 378.8 total yards.  This will be the game Allen gets back to that talk of MVP.

SLEEPER: RUNNING BACK, ZACH MOSS, BUFFALO BILLS: This will be Moss’ second game back.  The Jets are giving up the seventh most fantasy points to the running back position while also yielding 125.5 rushing yards a game and 1.5 rushing touchdowns.  That is more than enough room for Moss and Devin Singeltary to thrive.  

SIT: RUNNING BACK, FRANK GORE, NEW YORK JETS: Frank Gore deserves better.  He is now on a team that is 32nd in points per game, averaging 15.  He is also in a supposed time share with La’Mical Perine.  And oh yeah, Adam Gase is still the head coach. 

 

DALLAS COWBOYS @ WASHINGTON FOOTBALL TEAM, 46 O/U, DALLAS 1.5 FAVORITE

START: TIGHT END, DALTON SCHULTZ, DALLAS COWBOYS: It is a bit sad that the Dallas Cowboys will enter the game only favored by 1.5 points against a team that scores the third fewest points in the NFL.  The Washington Football Team’s front seven is better than advertised.  The team however is still giving up the eighth most fantasy points to the tight end position. In last week’s losing effort Schultz was targeted five times.  He hauled in four receptions and was one of the few Cowboys who did not have a turnover. 

SLEEPER: RUNNING BACK, ANTONIO GIBSON, WASHINGTON: Antonio Gibson has seemingly fallen off the fantasy radar.  Although he had one more carry than J.D. McKissic last week he had nine less rushing yards.  This week Gibson will go against the Cowboys’ defense who are giving up the eighth most fantasy points to the running back position.  He should thrive regardless of the quarterback position.

SIT: QUARTERBACK KYLE ALLEN, WASHINGTON: Kyle Allen isn’t a very good quarterback.  The expectation is that at any moment he will be relieved of his duties for Alex Smith.  Even against a generous Cowboys defense you cannot bank your fantasy week on that. 

GREEN BAY PACKERS @ HOUSTON TEXANS, 56.5 O/U, PACKERS 3.5 FAVORITE

START: RUNNING BACK, DAVID JOHNSON, HOUSTON TEXANS: This game has the second highest over/under for the week.  Both teams are looking to get back in the win column.  The Texans best chance is to keep Aaron Rodgers off the field.  David Johnson is averaging 4.02 yards per carry and he has 20 targets for 119 yards.  

The Packers are giving up the second most fantasy points to the running back position. 

SLEEPER: RUNNING BACK, JAMAAL WILLIAMS, GREEN BAY PACKERS: Everyone knows the Packers’ backfield belongs to Aaron Jones.  But last week in the loss to one of the best run defenses in the league, Jamaal Williams managed to lead the team in rushing yards, rushing average and was targeted once.  This will go far against the Texans who are giving up the most fantasy points to the running back position.  

SIT: WIDE RECEIVER, RANDALL COBB, HOUSTON TEXANS: Randall Cobb just isn’t seeing the targets to make him fantasy viable.  Even in the overtime game last week he was targeted four times for three receptions.  

SUNDAY PM GAMES

SEATTLE SEAHAWKS @ ARIZONA CARDINALS, 56 O/U, SEATTLE 4 FAVORITE

START: WIDE RECEIVER, CHRISTIAN KIRK, ARIZONA CARDINALS: The Seattle Seahawks are giving up the most fantasy points to the wide receiver position.  Kirk was only targeted two times in Monday Night Football game against the Cowboys. But against an equally porous defense he managed to grab both targets for 86 yards and two touchdowns.  

SLEEPER: RUNNING BACK, KENYAN DRAKE, ARIZONA CARDINALS: Oh my gosh…Kenyan Drake is ALIVE!!!! Yes, it was against a very bad Cowboys defense…but HE’s ALIVE.  Drake had 164 rushing yards and two touchdowns.  Come on now.  The Seahawks rushing defense is better, ranking in the top ten of rushing defenses…but HE’S ALIVE!!!

SIT: RUNNING BACK, CHRIS CARSON, SEATTLE SEAHAWKS: There is reason to believe that Carson will be a stud in this match-up.  The Cardinals’ defense is mid-range in their rushing defense, giving up 119.7 rushing yards per average.  And the Seahawks are coming off a bye week in which they could have decided that Russell Wilson is doing too much cooking.  Call it a hunch.  You aren’t going to sit Carson…you can’t.  Just temper your expectations.  

SAN FRANCISCO NINERS @ NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS, 45.5 O/U, PATRIOTS 3 FAVORITE

START: QUARTERBACK, CAM NEWTON, NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS: Newton had a rough day back from his Covid quarantine.  But he was just coming back from Covid quarantine.  The Niners are really good against the run, but they are without Nick Bosa and that hurts.  Look for Newton to use legs and arm to get the Patriots in the win column. 

SLEEPER: RUNNING BACK, JAMES WHITE, NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS: The Niners are good against the run, giving up the second fewest fantasy points to the running back position.  White however, will get his fantasy points in the receiving game.  Last week he was the most targeted player on the Patriots.  Newton looked his way nine times, for eight receptions and 65 yards.  

SIT: QUARTERBACK, JIMMY GARAPPOLO, SAN FRANCISCO NINERS: Not only are the Patriots giving up the seventh fewest fantasy points to the quarterback position, but Garoppolo hasn’t played well when going East this year.  Add to that he is going against a team and coach that know him and it doesn’t look good. 

KANSAS CITY CHIEFS @ DENVER BRONCOS, 48.5/U, CHIEFS 9.5 FAVORITE

START: QUARTERBACK, DREW LOCK, DENVER BRONCOS: Drew Lock played his first game back from shoulder injury last week in the win against the New England Patriots.  It wasn’t pretty.  It wasn’t pretty.  He was 10-of-24, for 189 yards, zero touchdowns, two interceptions, two sacks, and negative one rushing yards.  Yikes! The total points in the game was 30!  That isn’t going to happen this week against the Kanas City Chiefs. The Chiefs are ninth in team points averaging 29.2 a game.  The Broncos are 29th averaging 20. points a game.  Lock is going to have to toss the ball plenty to keep up with the Chiefs offense, and now that he has shaken the rust off it should happen. 

SLEEPER: RUNNING BACK, PHILLIP LINDSAY, DENVER BRONCOS: Melvin Gordon will most likely be back on the field this week after sitting out last week with strep.  This will mean a time share between the two, and as of right now Gordon has out targeted Lindsay 11-1.  It should also be noted that Gordon also has doubled the amount of games Lindsay has played.  Last season Lindsay finished the season with 48 targets (47 his rookie year) so Lock will throw to him when necessary.  In this game it will be necessary. 

Both Gordon and Lindsay have only played on the field at the same time in the first game of the season, where Lindsay got hurt.  In that game Gordon was on the field for 63% of the offensive snaps and Lindsay 32%.  But again, Lindsay was taken out of the game with the injury.  Look for the time share to be more equitable.  Biggest fear is Gordon will take over the goal-line carries. 

SIT: RUNNING BACK, LEVEON BELL, KANSAS CITY CHIEFS: This is a definite upgrade for the Chiefs and any fantasy player who held onto Leveon Bell.  Bell was most likely brought in to augment what is Clyde Edwards-Helaire’s negative one yard average in goal to go spots.  So Bell will once again be fantasy playable.  But this will be his first time on the field with the team if he plays, and after last week it is apparent Edwards-Helaire isn’t relinquishing his RB1 spot on the team anytime soon.

JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS @ LOS ANGELES CHARGERS, 49 O/U, CHARGERS 8 FAVORITE

START: RUNNING BACK, JUSTIN JACKSON, LOS ANGELES CHARGERS: Austin Ekeler will be out for some more time, and the Chargers are going to have to try something different than depending only on Justin Herbert’s arm to win games.  Joshua Kelley was supposed to be the man, but he is currently suffering from fumbling issues.  Besides in their Week 5 match-up against the New Orleans Saints, Jackson carried the ball five more times than Kelley and had 42 more yards.  He also out targeted Kelley 6-1.  

The Jacksonville Jaguars are giving up the sixth most fantasy points to the running back position.  They rank 28th in rushing yards allowed to opponents with 143.8, and with the Chargers being an eight point favorite at home they should take advantage and run the ball a lot. 

SLEEPER: QUARTERBACK, GARDNER MINSHEW, JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS: The predictive game scripts suggests the Jaguars will be behind.  Gardner Minshew has no problem with that although the Jaguars rank last in pass attempts per game 20.5, Minshew has only attempted less than 40 passes in a game once and that was Week 1.  He has hit 300 passing yards three times and thrown multiple touchdowns in four games.  There is the added bonus that he will take off and run with the ball.  With the Chargers’ secondary getting healthy and Joey Bosa having a week to heal up, Minshew will be running and passing to keep up with the Herbert and the Chargers. 

SIT: RUNNING BACK, JAMES ROBINSON, JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS: James Robinson made a comeback of sorts in Week 6.  It was also a game that went into overtime.  Robinson ran the ball 13 times for 48 yards.  He was also targeted seven times for five receptions and 22 yards.  The issue is he hasn’t been on the field for more than 70% of the offensive snaps in two weeks. Last week he received the same amount of targets as Chris Thompson.  Now the Jaguars will go into LA an underdog against a defense that is giving up the sixth fewest fantasy points to the running back position.  

You are probably still hopeful for Robinson and therefore will start him, just temper your expectations. 

TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS @ LAS VEGAS RAIDERS, 53.5 O/U, BUCCANEERS 3 FAVORITE

START: TIGHT END, ROB GRONKOWKSI, TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS: I know…. I know… Gronk is destined to be that man who constantly disappoints you…until he doesn’t.  And we have to remember just before this gig he was a wrestler and out of football for a year.  And now new system…new team…I’m making excuses aren’t I?  Nevertheless, he was the most targeted Buccaneer in Week 6.  He had 78 yards and a touchdown (should have been two touchdowns). And now he plays the Las Vegas Raiders, who in a winning effort got torched by Travis Kelce for 108 yards and a touchdown.  

SLEEPER: WIDE RECEIVER, HENRY RUGGS III, LAS VEGAS RAIDERS: Henry Ruggs is back from injury and showing just why the Raiders wee so high on him.  He is a burner and Derek Carr has managed to get him the ball on his way downfield.  Now the Buccaneers are really good on defense and they are actually giving up the fifth least amount of fantasy points to the wide receiver position.  This is a belief that Ruggs gets at least one touchdown of plus 65 yards for the day. 

SIT: QUARTERBACK, DEREK CARR, LAS VEGAS RAIDERS: Carr has been playing really good football. He will enter the game with a 73.1% completion percentage and a 115.9 QBR.  The problem is the Tampa Bay defense is also really good.  They just held Aaron Rodgers to 160 yards, zero touchdowns, two interceptions and four sacks.  It stands to reason they will keep Carr in check for the majority of the game (see Ruggs above).

MONDAY NIGHT GAME

CHICAGO BEARS @ LAS ANGELES RAMS, 46 O/U. RAMS 5 FAVORITE

START: RUNNING BACK, DARRELL HENDERSON, LOS ANGELES RAMS: The Rams backfield is a complete mess, in the sense that any given Sunday one of three running backs could lead in touches.  It just so happens that for two consecutive Sunday’s it has been Darrell Henderson.  This is a good thing because the Bears secondary is no joke and something that Jared Goff should shy away from.  

Henderson is averaging 4.83 yards per carry and has been targeted 11 times.  

SLEEPER: RUNNING BACK, DAVID MONTGOMERY, CHICAGO BEARS: So far David Montgomery has been meh, in fantasy football.  The Rams Aaron Donald will be around to cause havoc for the Bears offensive line and Nick Foles.  Their only hope is to get a running game going, and since Montgomery is the only game in town he should see lots of opportunity.  It is a bit disheartening that he only mustered 58 yards against the Carolina Panthers defense that is allowing 121.7 rushing yards a game.  Montgomery will now have to get traction against the Rams defense that is allowing 109 rushing yards per game.  The added bonus is that he is targeted in the passing game. 

SIT: QUARTERBACK, JARED GOFF, LOS ANGELES RAMS: The Chicago Bears pass defense is 10th in passing yards allowed per game and eighth in completions allowed per game (20.8).  As far as fantasy goes, they are first in allowing the fewest fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks (12.5).  This simply is not a good match-up for Goff.  

 

Good Luck and come talk at me on Twitter @neverenoughglt and come Listen to the GoingFor2Live crew: Sunday sit n start/dfs advice; Monday recap and MNF betting advice with @SenraSay and @TheBleagueSays: Tuesday Waiver Wire advice from @TheFantasyGPod; Wednesday Armchair Fantasy Show with @GeoffLambert77 and guests; Thursday you get the TNF game info and @GMenJay 

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