NFL 2020: Week 9 Fantasy Football Start n Sits

So what did we learn from Week 8? First, there is no such thing as a lock, smash start, sure thing, but it is 2020 and we probably already suspected that. Second, death, taxes, and the Los Angeles Chargers will blow a double-digit lead; and finally, the Pittsburgh Steelers might be for real.

But we keep playing ’cause that’s what we do.

The teams on a bye this week: Cincinnati Bengals, Cleveland Browns, Los Angeles Rams, and Philadelphia Eagles

THURSDAY NIGHT GAME

GREEN BAY PACKERS v SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS, 50.5 O/U, PACKERS 5.5

This game opened at 4.0 and has now risen to 5.5. The Niners will limp into Thursday night with no George Kittle, Jimmy Garoppolo, Raheem Mostert or Jeff Wilson Jr. The status of Tevin Coleman (at the time of this writing) remains uncertain.

START: RUNNING BACK, JAMYCAL HASTY, NINERS: Tevin Coleman would be the obvious start here if he were healthy. The Packers come into the game given up the third-most fantasy points to the running back position (25.13). Last week Dalvin Cook torched them for 163 yards and three touchdowns.

Hasty trailed Jerick McKinnon in snap counts last week 41% to 50% but out produced him with 12 rushing attempts for 29 yards and one touchdown. McKinnon had three rushing attempts for -1 yards.

SLEEPER: QUARTERBACK, NICK MULLENS, NINERS: The over/under suggests that this is a game where the Niners will have to be viable in the passing game to keep up. Mullens for his part last week showed that he is capable when he entered the game in the second half for Garoppolo. Mullens finished the game with 18 completions on 25 attempts for 238 yards and two touchdowns.

SIT: RUNNING BACKS, DEXTER WILLIAMS/TYLER ERVIN, PACKERS: AJ Dillion is out with Covid, Jamaal Williams is designated as high-risk close contact with Dillion and the status of Aaron Jones with his calf injury is uncertain.

It appears Dexter Williams and Ervin are the two remaining running backs on the team healthy enough to suit up. This is a game you want to prioritize your wide receiver, Davante Adams, and tight end Robert Tonyan. If there is a contrarian play for your DFS lineup: Williams was put on the active roster last Saturday. Last season he was on the field for 10 offensive snaps and carried the ball five times for 11 yards. While Ervin has been mostly limited to duties as a returner on special teams he has played this season with four rushing attempts for 43 yards. He was also on the receiving end of nine targets. In Week 8, Erving was on the field for 27% of the offensive snaps.

SUNDAY MAIN SLATE

DENVER BRONCOS @ ATLANTA FALCONS, 49.5 O/U, FALCONS 4

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After looking absolutely impotent for the first half of the game, the Denver Broncos managed to come alive in the fourth quarter, overcoming a double-digit deficit and beat the Los Angeles Chargers.

START: QUARTERBACK, DREW LOCK, BRONCOS: Lock looked absolutely abysmal in the first three-quarters of last Sunday’s game. The Broncos had a total of 60 yards for the first half of the game.  And then… Lock found his footing just as the Chargers defense lost theirs.  Lock finished the game 26-of-41, for 248 yards, three touchdowns, and one interception. 

The Falcons are 32nd in allowing fantasy points to the quarterback position (Teddy Bridgewater notwithstanding) and they have allowed more than 300 passing yards to opposing quarterbacks. Lock has the skill players around him to make it happen again. 

SLEEPER: TIGHT END, NOAH FANT, BRONCOS: Fanta has not had less than five targets in a game.  Last week he had nine targets, with seven receptions and 47 yards.  The Falcons defense is surrendering the most fantasy points to the tight end position (14) this season.  

The emergence of Albert Okwuegbunam is intriguing but last week he was only on the field for 25% of the offensive snaps while Fant was on for 78%.  Okwuegbunam had one target.

SIT: RUNNING BACK, BRIAN HILL, FALCONS: Hill carried the ball 11 times for 55 yards and three targets in Week 8.  He was on the field for 37% of the offensive snaps to Todd Gurley‘s 56%.  While he outproduced Gurley, the Broncos are allowing the second-fewest fantasy points allowed to the running back position.  

The upside to Hill is that he was on the receiving end of three targets to zero for Gurley, but that was an anomaly.  While Hill has seen no more than three targets in any game, he has consistently been on the receiving end of targets.  Gurley on the other hand has more targets than Hill but it has been erratic, including last week’s zero targets.   

SEATTLE SEAHAWKS @ BUFFALO BILLS, 54O/U, SEAHAWKS 2.5

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The Seahawks much-maligned defense looked like a different animal last week limiting Jimmy Garoppolo to 84 passing yards and holding all Niners rushers to a combined 53 yards.  

START: QUARTERBACK, JOSH ALLEN, BILLS: The Seahawks may have severely limited the fantasy smash spot of production that was supposed to be Jimmy Garoppolo but make no mistake they are still giving up the second most points fantasy points to the quarterback position.  Case in point, Nick Mullens comes in the second half to relieve Garoppolo and he just throws for 238 yards and two touchdowns. 

Allen has been struggling lately, even last week in the win against the New England Patriots where he only attempted 18 passes, completing 11 for 154 yards, zero touchdowns, one interception, and one sack.  He did rush for 23 yards on 10 carries for one touchdown, so there was that.  This is a game however, he will have to pass to keep up, and should be his “get right ” game. 

SLEEPER: WIDE RECEIVER, COLE BEASLEY, BILLS: This is an “all hands on deck” kind of game for the Bills, right.  Here are some stats for Beasley (thanks NFL.com): when the Bills are behind, Beasley has 20 receptions; most of his receptions came in the second half of the game, and there he has double-digit receptions, and 20 of his 41 receptions come when the Bills are on their own 21-50 yards line.  

The Seahawks defense has allowed 18 wide receivers to have six-plus targets.  Ugo Amadi has given up 20-or-27 passes and 194 in his slot coverage. 

You want high-ceiling yes you are going Stefon Diggs, but you want the solid steady floor it is Beasley. 

SIT: RUNNING BACK, DEEJAY DALLAS, SEAHAWKS: Chris Carson and Carlos Hyde‘s status for Week 9 is uncertain.  Same as last week when Dallas was on the field for 79% of the offensive snaps. He had 18 carries for 41 yards and five targets for 17 yards.  Dallas’ 2.3 yards per carry is slightly worrisome, especially in a game with the highest over/under for the week.  

On a ‘glass half full note’, the Bills did just allow Damien Harris to rush for 102 yards and a touchdown on 16 carries. And in fact, no running back averaged less than 4.3 yards per carry against them last week. 

BALTIMORE RAVENS @ INDIANAPOLIS COLTS  46 O/U, RAVENS 2.5

The Ravens are looking to get back in the “W” column and the Colts are trying to stay there. 

START: WIDE RECEIVER, WILLIE SNEAD, RAVENS: It appears that Snead will remain a Ravens after they could not come to an agreement with the Green Bay Packers.  Last week against the Colts allowed Marvin Jones to score two touchdowns and Marvin Hall to have four receptions on seven targets for 113 yards.  

Snead was on the field for 72% of the offensive snaps and was targeted seven times last week.  Marquise Brown was targeted twice while being on the field for 94% of the offensive snaps.  

SLEEPER: RUNNING BACK, JK DOBBINS, RAVENS: The Ravens backfield is a three-headed monster.  However, Mark Ingram is dealing with an ankle injury and his status for Week 9 is unclear.  He didn’t play last week.  With Ingram out, Dobbins was on the field for 65% of the offensive snaps.  He finished the game with 113 yards on 15 carries and two targets for eight yards.  

That was against the Pittsburgh Steelers defense.  This week he will go against the Colts defense a defense that is giving up the fifth fewest points to the running back position but allowed Joe Mixon, Giovanni Bernard both to get a rushing touchdown on them while allowing the Cleveland rushers to amass over 100 yards. 

SIT: TIGHT END, MARK ANDREWS, RAVENS: This hurts if only because Andrews was drafted so high in fantasy.  But for whatever reason last week Nick Boyle was listed ahead of Andrews on the depth chart.  Andrews was on the field for 62% of the offensive snaps, Boyle 61%.  Andrews saw six targets, Boyle one.  Andrews caught half of his targets for 32 yards.  In their match-up before their bye week with the Philadelphia Eagles, Andrews was targeted four times, caught half for 21 yards.  

You should also note that the Lions are giving up the fourth-fewest fantasy points to the tight end position (4.73).

So while it is true that the Lions are giving up the fourth-fewest fantasy points to the tight end position…on this match-up you should be concerned that the Colts are giving up the fewest points to the tight end position (2.23).  

HOUSTON TEXANS @ JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS, 50.5 O/U, TEXANS 7

Both teams are coming off their bye week. 

START: RUNNING BACK, JAMES ROBINSON, JAGUARS: As my colleague @TheFantasyGPod says, teams usually use the bye week to get right what went wrong.  Here that would be a call to utilize James Robinson more.  So under center will most likely be sixth-round rookie Jake Luton.  And oh yeah, the Texans are giving up the most fantasy points to the running back position (27.14).

SLEEPER: TIGHT END, DARREN FELLS, TEXANS: In the two weeks before the bye, Fells was on the field for 78% and 88% of the offensive snaps.  In Week 7 no tight end on the Texans received a target against the Green Bay Packers, but in Week 6, against the Titans, Fells was targeted seven times for six receptions, 85 yards, and a touchdown. The interim head coach has explained that Fells was not targeted in Week 7 because of the scheme the Packers were using.  The Packers’ scheme allowed for open wide receivers while keeping the tight end in check. Apparently, the Jaguars do not utilize that scheme as they are allowing the fourth-most fantasy points to the tight end position. 

SIT: WIDE RECEIVER, DJ CHARK, JAGUARS: Chark has had a chaotic fantasy football outing so far and that was with Minshew who he had some chemistry.  In Week 7, Chark was WR78.  He was targeted seven times, had one catch for 26 yards.  

New quarterback against a Texans defense who while not great against the pass (251.7 passing yards allowed) is coming off their bye week also.  I think JJ Watt may have something to say about that. 

CAROLINA PANTHERS @ KANSAS CITY CHIEFS, 52.5 O/U, CHIEFS 11

This will be the second home game in a row where the Chiefs are a double-digit favorite.  It may also be the return of Christian McCaffrey for the Panthers.  

START: RUNNING BACK, LE’VEON BELL, CHIEFS: The Panthers defense is actually pretty good except for their run defense.  They are allowing the fifth-most fantasy points to the running back position.  Last week’s “Bell’s revenge game” did not materialize, instead, Patrick Mahomes and the receiving corps decided to torch the New York Jets.  It is time to mix-it-up, the only problem is this running back by committee development in KC.  Both Clyde Edwards-Helaire and Bell had six rushing attempts.  Edwards-Helaire was more productive averaging 3.5 yards per carry to Bell’s 1.2.  Bell is still getting acclimated to the offense and there is no better way than to feed him the ball. 

SLEEPER: WIDE RECEIVER, DJ MOORE, PANTHERS: Moore kinda sucked up the field last week, but in his defense most of the Panthers did.  This week they will go against a Chiefs offense that will demand they stay competitive by passing the ball.  With the probable return of McCaffrey, it opens the offense up for everyone else.  Moore has 59 targets in eight games and has been seeing more passes underneath.  This should help his production against a Chiefs team that has to be wary of the other options the Panthers bring. 

SIT: WIDE RECEIVER, MECOLE HARDMAN, CHIEFS: Against the Jets in Week 8, Hardman was on the field for 68% of the offensive snaps.  He made the most of his time, he was targeted nine times for seven receptions, 96 yards, and one touchdown.  Which was good enough for third-best on the team.  The main concern is not only the mouths to feed in KC, but that the last two weeks Hardman was on the field for 40% and 43% of the offensive snaps respectively.  Before his nine targets, he was targeted one time in Week 6 and two times in Week 7. 

The Panthers are also allowing the fourth-fewest points to the wide receiver position. 

DETROIT LIONS @ MINNESOTA VIKINGS  52.5 O/U, VIKINGS 4

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The Lions are on the rebound and the Vikings are on a surprising one-game win streak. 

START: WIDE RECEIVER, MARVIN JONES JR., LIONS: Kenny Golladay is expected to miss this match-up with a hip injury.  Last week Jones was tied for second on the team in targets with seven.  He finished with three receptions, 39 yards, and two touchdowns.  This week against a Vikings team that is giving up the second-most fantasy points to the wide receiver position.  Jones in the last two weeks has also racked up 119 yards.  The Vikings secondary is porous and Jones will take advantage of that. 

SLEEPER: TIGHT END, TJ HOCKENSON, LIONS: Minnesota has allowed Robert Tonyan 79 yards and Hayden Hurst 57 yards and a touchdown; in their last two meetings of tight ends.  Add to that Golladay is out and Hockenson was the most targeted Lion in Week 8 and it looks pretty good for him. 

SIT: TIGHT END, IRV SMITH, VIKINGS: As likely as the Vikings are in allowing a tight end to get some traction, the Lions are not.  The Lions’ defense is giving up the fourth-fewest fantasy points to the tight end position.  And Smith was only targeted once last week in the surprise victory over the Packers. 

CHICAGO BEARS @ TENNESSEE TITANS, 46.5 O/U, TITANS 6

It is hard to look at the Bears and see a realistic plan.  The Titans meanwhile have problems of their own after their loss to the Cincinnati Bengals last week. 

START: WIDE RECEIVER, DARNELL MOONEY, BEARS: Mooney ended up on the field the same time as Allen Robinson last week.  Mooney was targeted six times, Robinson was targeted seven.  While Robinson was on the field for 97% of the offensive snaps, Mooney wasn’t far behind with 96%.  For his part, Mooney finished with five receptions for 69 yards and a touchdown.  

The Titans are currently 27th in passing yards allowed to opponents with 268.7.  The Bears are third in the league in passing attempts per game at 39.9.  Now I know this means you have to depend on Nick Foles who hasn’t been very good, but at least Mooney is on his radar. 

SLEEPER: RUNNING BACK, D’ONTA FOREMAN, TITANS: Everyone knows that it is Derrick Henry‘s backfield.  The Bears secondary is really good.  Their front seven is also pretty good and a little bit banged up.  Foreman only saw the field for 10% of the offensive snaps last week.  However, he had five carries for 37 yards and he has skills catching passes out of the backfield.  This is in no way suggesting that he will overcome Henry, he is just a nice piece to have around that could make some noise in DFS. 

SIT: WIDE RECEIVER, COREY DAVIS, TITANS: Davis is an excellent add off the waiver wire as he has had 10 targets in back-to-back games.  The problem is the Bears defense is only allowing a 58.9% completion rate and only two receiving touchdowns.  They are allowing the third-fewest fantasy points to the wide receiver position. 

NEW YORK GIANTS @ WASHINGTON, 41.5 O/U, WASHINGTON 3

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This is a game you most definitely want to target the defenses. 

START: WIDE RECEIVER, TERRY MCLAURIN, WASHINGTON: In all honesty, this is a game you might want to pivot from unless you have either defense.  As it is McLaurin has the safest floor, averaging 9.6 fantasy points per game.  Washington is 12th in pass percentage passing the ball on 59.91% of the time.  McLaurin has accounted for 45.4% of the air yards in Washington.  

The Giants defense while good on quarterback pressure is mid-range in passing yards allowed per game giving up 252.8. 

SLEEPER: QUARTERBACK, KYLE ALLEN, WASHINGTON: Allen was 15-of-25 for 194 yards and two touchdowns before the bye week.  Of course, it was the hapless Dallas Cowboys defense, but nevertheless, he also ran for 11 yards.  

The Giants defense is fifth in pressure rate, but 13th in sacks.  This should give Allen a little upside in rushing yards.  

SIT: WIDE RECEIVER, GOLDEN TATE, GIANTS: At this point, Tate is touchdown-dependent.  In the game against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers he was targeted only three times, he had two receptions for 31 yards and a touchdown.  The Washington Football Team is allowing the fewest fantasy points to the wide receiver position. 

SUNDAY AFTERNOON GAMES

LAS VEGAS RAIDERS @ LOS ANGLES CHARGERS, 53.5 O/U, CHARGERS 1

The Chargers are coming yet another blown double-digit lead, while the Raiders put a 16-6 win over the Cleveland Browns in Week 8.

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START: QUARTERBACK, JUSTIN HERBERT, CHARGERS: Whatever the bad mojo that is causing the Chargers to give up double-digit leads in the latter part of games, it isn’t the fault of the quarterback.  Herbert is still rocking a 67.4% completion rate while attempting 227 passes for the season.  

The Raiders are giving up the sixth-most fantasy points to the quarterback position. 

SLEEPER: QUARTERBACK, DEREK CARR, RAIDERS: Not only will Carr be forced to keep up with the Chargers points but he himself is unnervingly efficient.  Carr will come into the game with a 71.1% completion rate, having tossed 14 touchdowns to two interceptions.  The Chargers are also giving up the third-most fantasy points to the quarterback position. 

SIT: TIGHT END, HUNTER HENRY, CHARGERS: With the injury to George Kittle and the four teams on a bye you may have to roster Henry, just temper your expectations.  Henry should be more reliable being as his quarterback is averaging just a shade over 300 passing yards per game.  However, Henry has yet to reap the rewards from that.  Last week he saw four targets, four receptions for 33 yards.  

The upside of course is that the Chargers attempt 37 passes a game ( 8th) so Henry should reap the rewards soon…right?

MIAMI DOLPHINS @ ARIZONA CARDINALS, 48 O/U, CARDINALS 4.5

The Cardinals are coming off a bye week.  The Dolphins are recovering from the surprise win against the Los Angeles Rams. 

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START: RUNNING BACK, MATT BREIDA, DOLPHINS: Myles Gaskin will be out for this game. So it is all about Breida.  The Dolphins attempted 27.1 rushes per game, which ranked them 11th in the NFL, rushing on 45.02% of their plays.  That was pre-Tagovailoa.  Last week before injury Gaskin attempted 18 carries to Breida’s four.  This week the Dolphins play the Cardinals who are 25th against the run allowing 131.1 rushing yards a game.  

SLEEPER: RUNNING BACK, CHASE EDMONDS, CARDINALS: Edmonds is in ‘sleeper status’ because you may have forgotten that Kenyan Drake is out with an injured ankle.  The Dolphins defense is giving up the seventh-most fantasy points to the running back position.  Edmonds was good when he shared the space with Drake.  He should be even better now. 

SIT: QUARTERBACK, TUA TAGOVAILOA, DOLPHINS: Tagovailoa has his first game and first win under his belt.  But keep in mind it was a lot of defense and a little Tagovailoa that contributed to that win.  Tagovailoa attempted 22 passes, completed 12, for 93 yards, and one touchdown.  This week he plays the Cardinals who have been a sneaky good defense when not playing Russell Wilson.  The Cardinals have five interceptions in their last two games and haven’t given an opposing quarterback more than 13. fantasy points (unless he was named Russell Wilson).

PITTSBURGH STEELERS @ DALLAS COWBOYS, 42 O/U, STEELERS 13.5

This game has the biggest spread for the week. 

START: RUNNING BACK, JAMES CONNER, STEELERS: There is little argument that the Cowboys are in a free fall.  Their rushing defense is ranked 32nd in the league giving up 170.9 rushing yards a game.  They are allowing the sixth-most fantasy points to the running back position.  Conner is averaging 4.53 yards per carry. 

SLEEPER: WIDE RECEIVER, MICHAEL GALLUP, COWBOYS: The Steelers have been known to give up a touchdown or two to the wide receiver position.  Gallup was the most targeted Cowboy last week with Ben DiNucci under center.  

SIT: TIGHT END, DALTON SCHULTZ, COWBOYS: While the Steelers have been given up fantasy points to the wide receiver position, they have been pretty stout against the tight end position.  They are giving up the fifth-fewest fantasy points to the tight ends. 

SUNDAY NIGHT GAME

NEW ORLEANS SAINTS @ TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS, 51.5 O/U, BUCCANEERS 5

The Buccaneers are first in the NFC South with a 6-2 record.  The Saints are right behind them with a 5-2 record. 

START: TIGHT END, ROB GRONKOWSKI, BUCCANEERS: The bright Sunday night lights against a divisional foe feels like Tom Brady to Rob Gronkowski.  Gronkowski has only been on the field for less than 69% of the snaps once and that was Week 2.  Other than that he is on the field for at least 71% of the offensive snaps.  He has scored a touchdown in their last three games and most importantly the Saints are giving up the third-most fantasy points to the tight end position. 

SLEEPER: WIDE RECEIVER, ANTONIO BROWN, BUCCANEERS: What would this be without an Antonio Brown mention?  Head coach Bruce Arians have stated that Brown has “looked fantastic” when asked how much he will play in Week 9, ” it could be 10 plays, it could be 35 plays.” Thanks, coach.  Brown has familiarity with Brady, and it wouldn’t be out of character for Brady to try and get him the ball as much as possible.  This is a high ceiling low floor kind of option. 

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SIT: QUARTERBACK, DREW BREES, SAINTS: This is a rematch of Week 1, but everything seems oh so different.  There is a chance Brees gets both Emmanuel Sanders and Michael Thomas back this week.  He also had them both in the Week 1 match-up.  In that meeting, Brees had two touchdowns and 160 yards against the Bucs.  The Bucs are giving up the third-fewest fantasy points to the quarterback position (14.93), there isn’t any reason to think Brees will do much better on the road this time. 

MONDAY NIGHT GAME

NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS @ NEW YORK JETS, 42.5 O/U, PATRIOTS 7

Neither team is good right now.

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START: QUARTERBACK, CAM NEWTON, PATRIOTS: The Jets are where players go to feel better about themselves and this is no different.  The Jets’ defense ranks 29th against the pass. They have given up rushing touchdowns to Kyler Murray and Josh Allen.  Although Newton has not passed for more than 175 yards yet this season, his ability to get yards and touchdowns on the ground should salvage his fantasy week. 

SLEEPER: RUNNING BACK, DAMIEN HARRIS, PATRIOTS: If the Patriots have anything good going for them right now it is Harris.  Harris is averaging 5.7 yards per carry and because well of the Patriots situation he has been doing when facing stacked defenses 34.69% of the time.  Last week he carried the 10 times more than any other Patriot with 16 carries.  And oh yeah, they are playing the New York Jets. 

SIT: QUARTERBACK, SAM DARNOLD, JETS: I don’t know who needs to hear this but do not put Sam Darnold in your starting line-up.  First, it is a Monday Night game and he is going to attempt “to play through” a shoulder injury.  Second, it is Darnold who has a 58.6% completion percentage and has thrown three touchdowns and twice as many interceptions. This has been a public service announcement.  You are welcome. 

 

Good Luck! Come Talk to me on Twitter @neverenoughglt

 

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