Week 15: Best Bets To Win Against The Spread
Week 15 is already here and I am here to give you my best bets to win against the spread in Week 15. With Christmas almost here I hope to give you the gift of victory this week. And don’t forget there are two games to watch this Saturday. In Week 14 my picks 3-2 and I look to continue that success this week.
My Week 15 Picks
Buffalo Bills vs. Denver Broncos (+6)
The Buffalo Bills are coming off their biggest win of the year against the Steelers in Week 14. The Denver Broncos are also coming off a win against the Panthers in Week 14. The Bills are looking towards the playoffs, and the Broncos are just waiting for next season.
The Buffalo backfield consists of Zach Moss and Devin Singletary. But their most efficient runner might be quarterback Josh Allen. Moss and Singletary have four rushing touchdowns combined, but Allen has six rushing touchdowns himself. The Broncos have struggled in all phases of football this season, and run defense is no different. The Broncos run defense is ranked 27th in the NFL, which could become a problem trying to stop Buffalo even though Buffalo is only ranked 22nd in rushing.
But for the Buffalo offense, the key is the passing game. Allen is having a breakout season, and he finally has the offensive weapons to help him out. Like I have said in previous weeks, the key will be Stefon Diggs and Cole Beasley. Against the Steelers, the Bills started clicking once Diggs started getting involved. Why does that matter? Because that is exactly what will need to happen against the Broncos. The Bills will feed to use their 3rd ranked pass offense to be successful on Saturday night. The Denver defense is ranked 10th against the pass, but I do not know if that will matter much against Buffalo.
The Broncos offense as a whole has been very underwhelming this season. The running game has been a two head monster with Phillip Lindsay and Melvin Gordon. Unfortunately, they have been the successful duo that I thought they would be at the beginning of the season. They are in the middle of the NFL rankings, but I still think the team was expecting more. Now let’s talk quickly about Drew Lock and the Broncos passing game. The Broncos are ranked 27th in the NFL, which is not good at all. The Bills will look to shutdown Lock and the passing game. The Broncos will need the passing game to be successful if there is any chance of pulling off the upset.
The Bills are 8-5 against the spread and 3-3 ATS on the road. The Broncos are 8-5 against the spread and are 3-3 ATS at home. I don’t think the Broncos can pull off the upset, but can they keep it close enough to cover on Saturday night. The Broncos will have some success on defense throughout the game. But I don’t see how the offense does enough to keep it close at the end. MY PICK: Buffalo Bills -6.
Seattle Seahawks vs. Washington Football Team (+6)
Both the Seattle Seahawks and the Washington Football Team are coming off victories in Week 14 and will look to continue that trend in Week 15. The Seahawks have been playing inconsistently as of late and need to turn it around quickly if they have any chance of succeeding the rest of the season. They need to win against teams that they are expected to, and Washington is one of those teams. Washington has been on a hot streak and is the current division leaders in the NFC East.
The Seahawks offense is the strength of the team offense. More specifically, it is the passing game that is ranked 3rd in the NFL. Quarterback Russell Wilson is the leader of the offense but has two major targets to help him out. D.K. Metcalf and Tyler Lockett are ranked 2nd and 15th respectively in receiving yards and have 18 touchdowns combined. Wilson himself is the 8th ranked quarterback in passing yards and has 36 touchdowns. Wilson has thrown for 12 interceptions this season, and unfortunately for the Seahawks, they have come at the most inopportune moments of the year. The Washington defense will be a tough test for Seattle since they are ranked 3rd against the pass. Washington has the 5th most sacks in the NFL and will look to put pressure on Wilson all day long.
The rushing game is a battle of the 11th ranked rushing offense versus the 9th ranked rushing defense. Running backs Chris Carson and Carlos Hyde has been a successful tandem this season. Carson has been decent since he has come back from injury, but this will be a difficult game for him to be successful. Washington has players like Chase Young and Montez Sweat on the defensive line.
Washington has the 26th ranked passing offense in the NFL. But they have been a different team since Week 10 when Alex Smith became the starter. Tight end Logan Thomas has come out of nowhere to be a relevant pass catcher in this offense. They have the up and coming Terry Mclaurin at wide receiver, but they do not have much besides him. The Seahawks are the worst in the entire NFL against the pass. But will Washington have enough firepower in the passing game to take advantage of the Seahawks ineptitude? In Week 14, Smith did have to exit the game with a strained calf in the second half. There is a chance that he will not be able to play Sunday, but Washington is optimistic that he will play.
The Washington Football Team finally started figuring out the run game when they started getting rookie Antonio Gibson involved consistently. Unfortunately for him and the team, Gibson went down with a toe injury, and it looks like there is a good chance he will miss the game on Sunday. If he is out Sunday, it will be up to J.D. McKissic and Peyton Barber to run the ball. Unfortunately for Washington, the one part of Seattle’s defense that is successful is the 4th ranked rush defense in the NFL. For Washington to have a chance at victory, they will have to run the ball enough to keep the defense off-balance. Smith will look to his running backs in the passing game as well.
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Seattle is 7-6 against the spread and is only 2-4 ATS on the road. Washington is 8-5 against the spread and is 4-2 ATS at home. The last time Seattle traveled to the eastern time zone to play an NFC East opponent, they were upset by the New York Giants. I am not sure if Washington will pull off the upset, but I do expect their defense to come up big at times. With Seattle having a weak passing defense, I think it will be close throughout. MY PICK: Washington Football Team +6.
The Tampa Buccaneers are coming off a Week 14 win against the Vikings and are looking to stay in the playoff hunt. The Atlanta Falcons are coming off another loss against the Chargers and are overall having a very disappointing season. The Buccaneers Week 13 bye week came at the perfect time after losing four out of five before the break. But to stay in playoff contention Tampa Bay must finish the year off strong.
The Buccaneers have one of the most clutch quarterbacks in Tom Brady, but something has not been clicking this season. Brady has struggled at times to make the simple plays that he has in the past. But fortunately, he is facing a pass defense that is ranked 30th out of the NFL’s 32 teams. For a quarterback who is normally very accurate with the football, going against a Falcons defense that allows 69.6 percent pass completion will be a great spot for success. With weapons like Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, Antonio Brown, and Rob Gronkowski, I expect Brady to have a productive game. With having the late bye week, I think that was a blessing in disguise for this Buccaneers offense. Evans and Godwin will look to get back on track against a rival that they have both had a lot of success against in the past.
The Buccaneers running game has been up and down all season with Leonard Fournetter and Ronald Jones. Jones has had 4 100 plus yard games this season, but he will be sidelined for the rest of the season. He had a pin put in his fractured finger and was put on the Covid-19/reserve list. Fournette will look to be the main running back while Jones is out. But will Fournette be able to handle the workload? He has not shown it yet, but he will look to do so against a defense that is 10th against the run.
It is no secret that the Falcons offense is lead by their passing game. Quarterback Matt Ryan needs to be successful for the Falcons to win any game this season. But obviously, Ryan cannot do it all on his own. With weapons like Julio Jones, Calvin Ridley, and Hayden Hurst, the Falcons will try to attack the Buccaneer defensive backs. So far this season, the Falcons are the 6th ranked passing offense. The Buccaneers pass defense is ranked 21st in the NFL, and if the Falcons want to win, they must win that matchup. The Falcons will look to throw the ball early and often on Sunday.
Todd Gurley was brought in to be the workhorse running back for the Falcons. He showed signs of that earlier in the season, but lately, his performance has started to fall flat. Gurley has not had a touchdown in his last three games and has not even gone over 50 yards in his last 4 games. They also have Ito Smith, who has played more in the past few weeks. Unfortunately for the two of them, the Buccaneers are the best against the run in the entire NFL. The Buccaneers have Shaq Barret, Jason Pierre-Paul, and Ndamukong Suh on the defensive line and are ready to stop the running game. The Falcons will need to run the ball to keep the defense off-balance, but I do not know if that will happen or not.
The Buccaneers are 7-6 against the spread and 3-3 ATS on the road. The Falcons are 5-8 against the spread and 2-5 AATS at home. These two teams play each other twice in the last three weeks of the season, and for the Falcons to have any chance, all phases of their offense will have to be successful against the tough Buccaneers defense. I don’t see that happening, and I also don’t think the Falcons will stop Tom Brady. MY PICK: Tampa Buccaneers -6.
New England Patriots vs. Miami Dolphins (-1.5)
Both the New England Patriots and the Miami Dolphins are both coming over major losses against the Rams and Chiefs respectively. The Patriots playoff chances are almost gone but they hope to tarnish the record of their divisional foe. The Dolphins will lean heavily on the rookie Tua Tagovailoa to make a playoff run.
The Patriots will look to run the ball because it will be difficult for Cam Newton to throw the ball against this Dolphins defense led by head coach Brian Flores. And don’t forget that Flores is part of the Patriots coaching tree. Damien Harris has come out strong in a handful of games and was trying to have a breakout sophomore season. He has not had many touchdowns, mainly because it becomes Newton Time when the Patriots get near the endzone. But with Rex Burkhead out for the season, Harris must perform well for the Patriots to have a chance. The Dolphins defense, which is 21st in the league against the run, will slow down Newton and HArris. The running game will be one of the ways that I think the Patriots can be successful.
The Dolphins run game as of late has, in all honestly, been in shambles. Because of injuries and Covid-19, the Dolphins have used Jordan Howard, Matt Brieda, Miles Gaskin, Salved Ahmad, and Deandre Washington. They hope to have Ahmed, Gaskin, and Washington available against the Patriots. The Patriots are ranked 23rd in the NFL against the run. Usually, the Patriots defense is better than they are this year, and the Dolphins will need to exploit that.
Tua and the Dolphins passing game will be the key to victory against the Patriots. Tua has averaged 200 yards per game as a starter this season, and he doesn’t need to go and win games for the Dolphins, but he needs to keep them in the game. As of late, his top target has been tight end Mike Gesicki; however, he is out with a shoulder injury. Adam Shaheen will look to take his targets at tightens. But wide receivers Devante Parker, Malcolm Perry, and Jakeem Grant will look to help Tua and the Dolphins beat their arch-nemesis.
The Patriots are 6-7 against the spread and 2-5 ATS on the road. The Dolphins are 10-3 against the spread and are 6-1 ATS at home. Bill Belichick has not lost to a rookie QB since 2013, and he will try to continue that this Sunday. But will his offense do enough against his protege Flores and the Dolphins defense to get the win? MY PICK: Miami Dolphins -1.5.
Philadelphia Eagles vs. Arizona Cardinals (-6)
The Philadelphia Eagles are coming off their most impressive win against the Saints in Week 14. The Arizona Cardinals are going home after a road win versus the Giants. The Eagles have been one of the most inconsistent teams in the entire NFL and they look to change that with back to back wins. But the playoff aspiring Cardinals will have something to say.
The Eagles are starting rookie quarterback Jalen Hurts for the 2nd straight week after benching Carson Wentz. The Eagles game overall this season is ranked 28th in the NFL but to me that doesn’t matter anymore. With Hurts at quarterback, the Eagles are going to run a different style offense than they did with Wentz. In Week 14 Hurts threw for only 167 yards and had a touchdown. But they will not expect him to be the type of player to throw 400 yards. They will expect Hurts to complete short passes and every once in a while take a shot down the field. The Cardinals pass defense is 11th in the league but I still think Hurts will do better than he did last week. With not many weapons Hurts will look to get the running backs involved in the passing game.
Speaking of the running backs the Eagles got from Miles Sanders in Week 14 what they were hoping to see all year long. Look for the Eagles to run the ball early and often with Sanders. Sander ran the ball for 100 plus yards for only the 2nd time this season. And no I don’t believe it was just a coincidence that Hurts was his quarterback. Hurts will also be active with his legs, in Week 14 Hurts had 106 yards on the ground. I don’t expect him to have that type of performance but he will be active and successful on the ground. For the Eagles to win they will need to run the ball and control the clock against a defense that is ranked 18th against the run in the NFL.
Kyler Murray has not been as successful as of late as he was earlier but the Cardinals passing game is still dangerous. Kyler Murray will look to get the ball on the outside to DeAndre Hopkins, who should be shadowed by Darius Slay. So far, Hopkins has 94 receptions on 127 targets. The problem for the Eagles is their secondary besides Slay is super thin and inexperienced. The Eagles have the 9th overall pass defense and will need to step up their performance if they have any chance of slowing down Murray. Cardinals will look to get Christian Kirk involved as well. Dan Arnold will look to continue his recent success. My opinion is Murray is looking for Arnold as an outlet receiver partly because his shoulder is still not 100 percent.
Where do we begin with the Arizona running game? Kenyan Drakes rushing yards have been inconsistent all season long but they use him in the red zone frequently And because of that workload, he has had touchdowns in the past four games. They also have Chase Edmonds who they have only been using as a change of pace back as of late. They will be facing a defense that is 19th against the run. But the biggest factor in the running game by the legs of quarterback Murray. He is going to have to be successful to get his team back in the playoff hunt.
The Eagles are 5-8 against the spread and 1-5 ATS on the road. The Cardinals are 6-7 against the spread and 2-4 ATS at home. This game will come down to a few different matchups, in my opinion. The biggest deciders will be the run game of Philadelphia and the passing game of Arizona. I believe both will be successful. But The Eagles should do enough to keep it close throughout, and it’s not like the Cardinals are great at home. MY PICK: Philadelphia Eagles -6.
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