NFL Conference Championship: Best Bets To Win Against The Spread

It is time to see who will go to Super Bowl 55. Both AFC and NFC Championship Games are matchups between the top two seeds, making for some great games. My Divisional Round picks were 3-1. Since there are only two games, I am giving you my picks against the spread and the over/under. As a bonus, I have also picked six props from Thrive Fantasy.

My Conference Championship Picks

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Green Bay Packers (-3.5), O/U 51

Tampa Bay

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers are coming into the NFC Conference Championship after beating the Saints 30-20. They won both of their playoff games so far on the road and will need one more road wi0n to get to the Super Bowl. Quarterback Tom Brady will try to get to his 10th Super Bowl.

In the Divisional Playoffs, the Buccaneers rushed for 127 yards and 1 touchdown. The Buccaneers are led by running backs Leonard Fournette and Ronald Jones. After missing the first playoff game, Jones rushed for 62 yards. After one week back from injury Jones should get a few more carries than the 13 he had against the Saints. They will need to take advantage of the Packers defense that is only 23rd against the run. The run game will also need to help out Brady and the passing game in the red zone because the Packers have the 10th best red zone defense in the NFL.

Brady will need to have a good game if the Buccaneers want to go to the Super Bowl. In the Divisional Playoffs, Brady threw for 199, but I believe to beat the Packers, he will need to throw for at least 275 yards. As of late, Brady has been spreading out his passes to all of his pass catchers. He will look to get Antonio Brown, and Chris Godwin involved everywhere on the field. In the red zone, Brady’s main targets in the red zone are Mike Evans and Rob Gronkowski. Evans has been used this year as a big endzone target, and I don’t see that changing on Sunday. But it will be tough against the Packers tough red zone defense. The Packers pass rush has lacked at times this season, but if they get to Brady, look for him to get Fournette involved in the passing game.

Green Bay

The Green Bay Packers earned their spot in the NFC Conference Championship game with an impressive win against the Los Angeles Rams. Late in his career, quarterback Aaron Rodgers is looking to win his second Super Bowl. This season’s Packers team might give Rodgers his best chance at another Super Bowl.

This season the Green Bay Packers were ranked 9th in the NFL in rushing offense. The Packers were led by running back Aaron Rodgers. In last week’s win, the Packers ran for 188 yards, and Jones accounted for 99 yards. The Packers have also used Jamaal Williams and AJ Dillon in the running game. Unfortunately, it will be a difficult task on Sunday since the Buccaneers are the best team against the run in the NFL.

Rodgers undoubtedly leads the Packers passing game. Rodgers threw for 296 yards, and 2 touchdowns in the Packers win last week. They face a Buccaneers defense with only three sacks in the last three games. Rodgers has wide receiver Devante Adams on the outside, which ended the regular season with an NFL leading 18 touchdowns. Besides Adams, his main target has been upstart tight end Robert Tonyan. The Packers will try to exploit the good but young Buccaneers secondary. This game could end up being a high scoring game, which means Rodgers will need to have a great game.

My Picks

This will be a completely different game than these two teams played in Week 16. Rodgers had three interceptions in Week 6, but he has only thrown one interception in the last seven games. I don’t believe that he will have the type of game he had in Week 6. The game will be a high level quarterback battle that will turn into a high scoring shoot out. Both teams will try to get the running game going, and I don’t believe the Buccaneers will be as successful as the Packers running game. Rodgers has had an NFL MVP caliber season and will continue that success on Sunday. It will be back and forth game that both teams will score a decent amount of points.

Green Bay Packers -3.5, Over 51.

Buffalo Bills vs. Kansas City Chiefs (-3), O/U 54

Buffalo Bills

The Buffalo Bills are playing in their first AFC Championship game since 1994. The Bills are led by no other than quarterback Josh Allen. This is his first real run at a Super Bowl, so we will see first hand if he can handle the pressure. In the Bills playoff appearance last, season the Bills underperformed and were bounced in the first round. This is their chance to show they belong amongst the AFC elite.

The Bills running game will be without Zach Moss, so they will be led by Devin Singletary. In their playoff win against the Ravens, the Bills only ran for 32 yards. They will need to have more success in the running game if they want to win against the Chiefs. Singeltary has had zero 100 yard games this season. The Bills also have Allen, who can run the ball well even though he is a quarterback. In their Week 6 matchup against the Chiefs, he ran for 42 yards. He will look to have another good rushing performance, and I wouldn’t be surprised if he ended up being the Bills leading rusher.

Allen has shown tremendous progress as a quarterback this season and will need to have a great game if the Bills want to go to the Super Bowl. Stefon Diggs leads a wide receiving group that has performed very well all season long. Diggs led the league in the regular season in receptions and yards with 127 and 1,535, respectively. It will be a battle of the Bills 3rd ranked passing offense versus the Chiefs 8th ranked pass defense. Allen will also look to target Cole Beasley and Gabriel Davis.

Kansas City Chiefs

The Kansas City Chiefs are hosting the AFC Championship Game for the third consecutive year. But more importantly, they hope they have a chance to win the Super Bowl in back to back seasons. The biggest question mark is the health of quarterback Patrick Mahomes. But I do believe he will play.

In the game versus the Bills in Week 6, the Chiefs offense ran for 245 yards. I highly doubt they will have the type of performance this week. Running back, Clyde Edwards-Helaire is still listed as questionable. Obviously, if he plays, he is a great addition to the running game, but even if he doesn’t look for Darrell Williams to have a strong performance. Against the Browns last week, the Chiefs ran for 123 yards, and 78 of those were from Williams. The Chiefs will need to run the ball well to keep the stress and pressure off quarterback Mahomes. Usually, Mahomes gets out of the pocket a few times each game to extend a play and get a first down. If he can play, I don’t think he will be doing much of that this week.

Mahomes is the obvious leader of the top ranked Chiefs passing game. This week’s production will partly depend on how much he recovers from the injuries he had in the game against the Browns. I think he will look to get the ball early before the Bills 4th ranked pass defense can get pressure. That means watch out for Tyreek Hill, Travis Kelce, and even Mecole Hardman to have good games if the Chiefs hope to go to the Super Bowl. With Mahomes more than likely, not 100 percent, watch out for the Chiefs screen game to get back on track. Mahomes will need to get the running backs involved in the passing game to be successful.

My Picks

A lot of this game will be dependant on the health of Mahomes. I am assuming he will be able to play, but I am not sure how healthy he will be. I look for both teams to have good games in the passing game because of how hot their quarterbacks and wide receivers have been as of late. The Chiefs defense has stepped up as of late but will it be enough? The Chiefs are known for high scoring games, but I honestly don’t see that happening this week as much as others. With a low spread and high over/under, something has to give.

Kansas City Chiefs -3, Under 54.

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Prop Bets

Mike Evans O/U .5 Rec TD: OVER

Tom Brady O/U 288 Pass Yards: OVER

Davante Adams O/U 94.5 Rec Yards: Under

Stefon Diggs O/U 4.5 Receptions: OVER

Patrick Mahomes O/U 331.5 Pass + Run Yards: Under

Mecole Hardman O/U .5 Rec TD: OVER

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