Fantasy Football Breakout Candidate: Jalen Hurts
QB Jalen Hurts (PHI)
2020 Stats: 1,061 passing yards, 6 TD, 4 INT; 354 rushing yards, 3 TD
As the Philadelphia Eagles moved through a bad season and Carson Wentz struggled, the calls for Jalen Hurts to play more ramped up. After only getting stray snaps to that point, Hurts took over during Week 13 against the Green Bay Packers. He didn’t leave the field again until the Eagles clearly tanked Week 17 by going with Nate Sudfeld.
In his three full games as rookie, Hurts threw for 847 yards with five touchdown passes and two interceptions. But that’s only part of the equation, as he also ran for 238 yards and a touchdown over that stretch (including 106 rushing yards against the New Orleans Saints in his first start).
The Eagles signed Joe Flacco as hypothetical competition for Hurts, and the front office stuck with their typical narrative regarding being a “quarterback factory.” But after the draft now, Hurts is clearly the guy for 2021.
Over his three-start stretch from Week 14-16, Hurts was QB3 in fantasy. Over 76 total snaps in his other two appearances (one start) from Week 13-17, he had 25.54 fantasy points (one point per 25 passing yards, -2 for interceptions).
Hurts’ 52 percent completion rate last year is a legit concern. But according to Pro Football Focus, 46 percent of his pass attempts traveled 10 or more yards in the air (the highest such rate in the league). So an adjustment in play-calling under new head coach Nick Sirianni is in order, along with matching Hurts with more ideal talent. In other words, the Eagles need to succeed where they roundly failed Wentz in recent years.
Nine fumbles for Hurts in such limited action overall last year shouldn’t be forgotten, including six in his three full games. But the Eagles only lost two of them.
The Eagles played keep-away from the division rival New York Giants by trading up in the draft for wide receiver DeVonta Smith. PFF graded Smith out as the best wide receiver in college football on targets of 10-plus yards last year (97.4). He also led all receivers in targets with at least two yards of separation (88), while Hurts had the lowest percentage of pass attempts delivered to “open” receivers in the NFL in 2020 (54 percent). Hurts and Smith know each other from time together at Alabama, before Hurts transferred to Oklahoma as a grad transfer to finish his college career. That familiarity should help foster instant rapport.
Hurts running ability naturally raises his fantasy ceiling. ESPN’s early-May projections have him as the 10th-ranked fantasy quarterback. By ADP, via Fantasy Football Calculator, he’s QB11 or QB13 depending on 12-team full PPR or standard scoring right now. Fantasy Pros has him ranked as QB9 in their most current rankings.
The breakout success/fail line for Hurts is a finish as a top-10 fantasy quarterback in his first full season as the starter. There’s a hint of “Lamar Jackson-light” here, but that’s the highest end of possible outcomes for Hurts this year and not very likely.
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Projection: 3,775 passing yards, 23 touchdowns, 10 interceptions; 725 rushing yards, 6 TD
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Breakout Confidence Level: 69%
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