Fantasy Football Breakout Candidate: J.K. Dobbins
RB J.K. Dobbins (BALT)
2020 Stats: 134 carries for 805 yards, 9 TD; 18 receptions for 120 yards
The Baltimore Ravens added J.K. Dobbins to their backfield in the second round of the 2020 draft. However predictably, with two other backs (Mark Ingram, Gus Edwards) to share work with and a quarterback (Lamar Jackson) would takes a share of the rushing attack, he didn’t get double-digit carries in a game until Week 8. That was also his first career 100-yard game (15 carries for 113 yards against the Pittsburgh Steelers).
In nine of his last 11 games (including playoffs), Dobbins had double-digit carries. Expand the criteria to at least nine carries or a touchdown and it’s 10 of 11. In eight of those 11 contests, he had more than 50 rushing yards or a touchdown (including seven straight from Week 11-Wild Card Round, with more than 50 yards and a touchdown in the first six).
From Week 11-17, Dobbins was RB6 in standard fantasy scoring. Trim off Week 17, and his big game against the Cincinnati Bengals (160 yards and two touchdowns), and he was still RB10 in standard from Week 11-16.
Dobbins averaged a robust 6.0 yards per carry last year. According to Pro Football Focus, he gained 43 percent of his yards on yards of 15-plus yards. I did the calculation, that’s 346 of his 805 yards. He had eight runs of 20-plus yards.
In NFL history, only six running backs have averaged six yards per carry at least 200 carries in a season. including Jim Brown, Adrian Peterson and Barry Sanders. Dobbins didn’t reach the 200-carry mark, but Chris Towers of CBS Sports dove in and tells us those six backs collectively averaged 4.7 yards per carry the following season. So let’s assume Dobbins’ yards per carry settles in at less than 5.0 in 2021.
It’s not a big difference, but depending on the source Dobbins had a different number of red zone carries last year. But one thing everything agrees on is his efficiency from very close. Eight of his nine touchdowns came from five yards out of less. With Jackson siphoning carries and red zone totes the way he does, Dobbins matched volume (once he started getting more work) with proficiency in the red zone.
As expected with a running quarterback like Jackson and the run-heaviest offense in the league, there’s not much room for Ravens’ running backs to eat in the passing game. Baltimore’s 62 running back targets last year were the second-fewest in the league, and Dobbins led the way with 24.Â
Another fly in Dobbins’ ointment is Edwards. Edwards averaged 5.0 yards per carry himself last year, and was better or at least not significantly worse than Dobbins (including playoffs) in PFF grade, missed tackles forced per rush, yards per carry, yards after contact per carry and percentage of carries resulting in a first down or a touchdown. At least Ingram is out of the way, but he was a non-factor for most of last season anyway.
Dobbins should lead Ravens’ running backs in carries this year. That puts 200 carries within range, and Jackson’s presence assures he’ll stay efficient.
Dobbins clearly gets bumped down the running back pecking order in PPR formats, but maybe not as much as we think. By current ADP, via Fantasy Football Calculator, Dobbins is RB17 (pick 3.03) in 12-team full PPR and RB16 (pick 3.01) in 12-team standard scoring.
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RotoWire has an RB1-esque projection for Dobbins this year (270 carries for 1,283 yards, 10 TD; 44 catches for 329 yards, 1 TD). More specifically, those numbers would have yielded RB4 in standard and full PPR scoring last year. A top-5 finish is easy to see as his ceiling, but 44 catches feels aggressive.
Set the mark for a breakout at the RB1/RB2 line though, maybe even RB10, and now we’re talking. Dobbins can get there, with more work all season to offset a bit of touchdown efficiency correction.
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2021 Projection: 220 carries for 1,035 yards, 10 TD; 30 receptions for 229 yards, 1 TD
Breakout Confidence Level: 53%
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