Here Is The Deal: You’re Too Low on Nick Chubb
Nick Chubb is criminally undervalued right now at his current RB8 average draft position (ADP).
What’s that I hear? It’s everyone saying, “but Erik, he doesn’t get enough work in the passing game!”
That is an excellent point and I’m so glad you brought it up! He finished as the RB9 in points per reception (PPR) per game scoring in 2020 despite being 67th in targets at the position and missing four games in the middle of the season due to injury.
It is a fact that carries are not as valuable in fantasy football as targets or receptions; however, Chubb is such a good runner it doesn’t affect his fantasy output as much as his peers.
| 2020 (rank among RBs) | 2019 (rank among RBs) | |
| True yards per carry | 5.1 (3rd) | 4.6 (11th) |
| Yards per touch | 5.9 (4th) | 5.3 (18th) |
| Breakaway runs | 14 (2nd) | 17 (1st) |
| Breakaway run rate | 7.4% (3rd) | 5.7% (10th) |
| Evaded tackles | 78 (6th) | 96 (2nd) |
| Juke rate | 37.9% (1st) | 28.7% (10th) |
| Yards created per touch | 3.15 (1st) | 1.72 (16th) |
He is the best runner in the NFL and the metrics reflect it.
Another fell voice on the wind cries, “what about when Cleveland is down and they only use Kareem Hunt?”
That is a fair point and one with which I initially agree; however, this is not the Browns team of the 2010s. This team looks like a Super Bowl contender on paper.
A negative game script is traditionally a concern for any RB who isn’t the primary receiver out of the backfield. Chubb’s 2020 splits in wins vs in losses continue to buck traditional thinking.
In wins, he averaged 17.8 PPR points. In losses, he averaged 16.5 PPR points.
Austin Ekeler, who finished as the RB12 in 2020 averaged 16.5 PPR points per game.
This team is not going to be behind on the scoreboard often. In fact, their run-first offense will be strengthened by their ability to slow down the game in the second half and pound the rock.
Chubb has a nose for the end zone evidenced by his 0.64 rushing TDs per game in his career. This offense is going to move the ball and he is the benefactor in goal-line situations.
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Do not be surprised to see him flirt with the 20 TD mark this season.
I am always a process over results fantasy manager, but every blue moon a player comes along that defies conventional thought. Either we adapt to that player’s unique efficiency or we miss out on a juggernaut fantasy asset.
Luckily for fantasy managers, Nick Chubb is a perfect marriage of process and results. Managers are getting a league-winning player with the upside of the RB1 at his current ADP.
We just have to hope the ADP does as William Wallace from Braveheart once said, “HOOOOOOOLD!”.
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