Fantasy Football Bounceback Candidate: Cam Newton

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QB Cam Newton (NE)

2020 Stats: 2,657 passing yards, 8 TD, 10 INT; 592 rushing yards, 12 TD

Starting with the Carolina Panthers waiting to cut him, and COVID-19 restrictions preventing traditional physicals to address questions about his throwing shoulder at team facilities , Cam Newton remained available last offseason until the New England Patriots signed him in late-June 2020. He had to learn a notably complex Patriots’ offense without a typical training camp or any preseason games. Then he got COVID-19 early in the season, and seemed to never quite be the same after. New England re-signed him anyway this offseason, to another one-year deal.

Leaving out 2019 when he only played two games, Newton had his worst passing season in 2020. A lot was working against him, with a lack of weapons in the passing game to go with the aforementioned issues. He was also a little banged up at times, with neck and abdomen issues coming up after a couple midseason games.

Newton’s lone multiple passing touchdown game of last season game in Week 17 against the New York Jets, so a lot of fantasy owners didn’t reap the benefit. His third-highest yardage game of the season also came against the Jets (274 yards in Week 9). His two 300-yard games came in Week 2 against a Seattle Seahawks’ defense that was abysmal at that point in the season, and in Week 11 against the feeble Houston Texans’ defense.

Newton was top-three among quarterbacks in carries (137; third), rushing yards (592; third) and rushing touchdowns (12; first) last year. He wound up finishing as QB16 in fantasy-QB20 if you take out Week 17.

Speaking to the media on Thursday this week, here’s what Patriots offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels said about Newton.

McDaniels on Newton: "He's worked really hard. He worked hard all of last year… He came back this year at a much different position. He has a different grasp of the offense, a different understanding of the terminology. Now we're working on refining the precision, the details."

— Phil Perry (@PhilAPerry) June 3, 2021

Newton has worked on his passing mechanics this offseason. At times last year, it frankly looked like it hurt to throw the ball. The Patriots also overhauled their group of pass catchers this offseason in a spending binge. Hunter Henry and Jonnu Smith will give them a nice tight end duo, with Nelson Agholor and Kendrick Bourne joining the mix at wide receiver. Rumors of their interest in Julio Jones will linger until the Falcons’ wide receiver is traded.

The Patriots took Alabama quarterback Mac Jones 15th overall in April’s draft. That makes him the team’s plan for the future. But Newton seems to have a legit shot at winning the starting job, and his experience in the system will give him an early edge.

Two weeks into last season, spurred by four rushing touchdowns, Newton was QB3 in fantasy. From Week 8-13, after totaling five interceptions without a touchdown pass in Week 6 and 7, he was QB12. All told, seven of his 10 interceptions came in three of his 15 game. After the third (Week 12 against Arizona) is when the previously mentioned abdomen issue surfaced.

The specter of Jones taking over at the first sign of trouble automatically lowers Newton’s fantasy ceiling. Any projection for the former league MVP has to assume he doesn’t start every game, and he may not start more games than Jones. And barring the addition of Julio Jones, the Patriots’ wide receiver corps still isn’t that great. 

But as fliers in the QB2 ADP range go, even with all that may go against him, there are worse ways to go than Newton. The ceiling is a QB1 finish, with nowhere to go but up as a passer and a nice baseline for production on the ground if he wins and holds onto the starting job. A QB1 finish is the bounceback threshold here.

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2021 Projection: 2,450 passing yards, 14 TD, 7 INT; 456 rushing yards, 6 TD

Bounceback Confidence Level: 38%

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