Where’s The Love For This Mystery Player?
What if I told you there’s an RB2 you can draft in the late third to early fourth round and be virtually guaranteed RB2 numbers with the RB1 upside we’re always looking for? That’s basically every fantasy football manager’s dream, right? Sign me up. Point me to the dotted line, am I right? There is such a player. For some reason, however, way too many people in the fantasy community are sleeping on this guy. Not even sleeping. Blatantly overlooking him. Disrespecting him. There are several reasons for that, although almost none of them hold much water.
The first part that might unconsciously play a role in this player’s value being lower than it should be is the round in which he was drafted. We, as fantasy managers all flock to the first and second-round running backs. We get so fixated on them we become blind to the fact there are other running backs who can provide us with the same value at a cheaper cost.
The injury-prone label has attached itself to our mystery player. However, this is exaggerated. This may happen because he doesn’t have the high draft capital associated with his name where other players get passes. I’m looking at you, Dalvin Cook and Saquon Barkley. Despite their injury concerns, we’re racing to the gate to draft them again and again. The same with Joe Mixon. Even though all of these running backs have missed more games than the mystery player. However, all of these guys have the first and second-round draft capital backing them up and giving them second chances.
Before we get to the big reveal and dive a little bit deeper into why you need to stop looking past this guy, we’re going to look at a very interesting table. In the table below, you’re going to see our mystery player on top. There will also be some other big-name running backs we drool over as fantasy managers. You’re also going to see five different columns.
The first one will be the percentage of games the player has finished as an RB1 on any given week in the past three years in the games they’ve been active. The second one will be how often they finished as an RB2 and the third will be how often the player has given you at least RB2 or better numbers. How often they have finished as an RB3 or worse will be the fourth column. The fifth column will be the percentage of games they’ve missed over the past three seasons. For the sake of showing more than one season, the table will not include any second-year running backs.
| RB1 Finish | RB2 Finish | RB2 or Better | RB3 or Worse | Games Missed | |
| Mystery Player | 37% | 37% | 74% | 27% | 15% |
| Christian McCaffrey | 80% | 14% | 94% | 6% | 15% |
| Dalvin Cook | 54% | 36% | 90% | 10% | 17% |
| Saquon Barkley | 58% | 23% | 81% | 19% | 35% |
| Aaron Jones | 38% | 36% | 74% | 26% | 12% |
| Alvin Kamara | 66% | 18% | 84% | 16% | 6% |
| Derrick Henry | 43% | 21% | 64% | 36% | 2% |
| Joe Mixon | 42% | 14% | 56% | 44% | 25% |
| Ezekiel Elliott | 54% | 30% | 84% | 15% | 4% |
| Austin Ekeler | 32% | 30% | 62% | 38% | 17% |
| David Montgomery | 39% | 23% | 52% | 48% | 3% |
| Miles Sanders | 32% | 21% | 53% | 46% | 12% |
| Nick Chubb | 39% | 23% | 62% | 39% | 8% |
| Josh Jacobs | 36% | 21% | 57% | 43% | 12% |
Out of 14 running backs, our mystery player is tied for 6th with Aaron Jones for having the best rate of RB2 finishes or better. In fact, our mystery running back lines up almost identically with Aaron Jones across the board. Where our mystery player barely cracks the top-20, Aaron Jones is routinely drafted among the top-10 of running backs. Here’s another interesting nugget, our mystery player finishes as an RB2 or better at a higher rate than Nick Chubb. Be sure to check out games missed too and you’ll find our mystery guy doesn’t actually miss any more games than the majority of these other running backs.
If you haven’t figured it out yet, our mystery player is none other than Chris Carson of the Seattle Seahawks.
Where is the Love for Chris Carson
Running backs with the most fantasy points per rushing attempt (Min. 100 attempts):
1) Alvin Kamara 2.02
2) D’Andre Swift 1.66
3) Austin Ekeler 1.42
4) Chris Carson 1.33
5) Aaron Jones 1.28#FantasyFootball #NFL pic.twitter.com/1vEKBvZdXw— FantasyData (@FantasyDataNFL) June 11, 2021
FantasyPros currently has Chris Carson as their 18th best running back for the 2021 season. David Montgomery and Josh Jacobs are the only two ranked behind him. Aaron Jones, who has the same averages across the board comes in at RB9. It’s hard to know why Carson does not get the appreciation he deserves.
The table below shows the rushing totals since 2018. You’ll notice some names not included from the previous tables as those only have two seasons, as opposed to the three we are looking at.
| Name | Games Played | Rushing Yards | YPC |
| Derrick Henry | 47 | 4,626 | 5.2 |
| Ezekiel Elliott | 46 | 3,770 | 4.4 |
| Nick Chubb | 44 | 3,557 | 5.2 |
| Dalvin Cook | 39 | 3,307 | 4.8 |
| Chris Carson | 41 | 3,062 | 4.6 |
| Aaron Jones | 42 | 2,916 | 5.1 |
| Joe Mixon | 36 | 2,733 | 4.3 |
| Christian McCaffrey | 35 | 2,710 | 4.8 |
| Alvin Kamara | 44 | 2,612 | 4.7 |
| Saquon Barkley | 31 | 2,344 | 4.7 |
Chris Carson has the 5th most rushing yards in the NFL since 2018. I know what you’re thinking, those stats are all great, but where does he finish in fantasy football? In 2020, Chris Carson finished as the RB20 in Full-PPR scoring despite missing four games. On a PPG basis, Carson was RB12. He was also the RB12 in overall and PPG scoring in 2019 and in 2018, he finished as the RB14 overall and RB12 in terms of PPG. Every year Chris Carson is disrespected in the fantasy rankings. Every year he produces. Three straight years of being a top-20 running back and three straight years of averaging RB12 numbers.
What’s even better as it relates to 2021 is last year we saw the most involved Carson has ever been in the passing game. He had more receiving yards and touchdowns last year in just 12 games and showcased an improving skill set. He set career highs in targets, catches, yards, and receiving touchdowns per game in 2020.
What to Expect from Chris Carson in 2021
Pete Carroll said the primary focus going into 2021 will be to run the football more often and more effectively. (via @710ESPNSeattle)
— Joe Fann (@Joe_Fann) January 11, 2021
Seattle Seahawks Head Coach Pete Carroll has an offensive philosophy. He doesn’t care about letting Russell Wilson cook. He just doesn’t. Pete Carroll wants to establish the run and pound the football down the defense’s throat. Every year fantasy managers make the mistake of expecting Wilson to air it out and in the process, Carson gets downgraded for a belief that has never come to fruition. The craziest part about all of this? Pete Carroll tells us, every year, he wants to run the football. It isn’t a mystery.
The Seahawks ran the ball 534 times in 2018, second only to the Baltimore Ravens at 547. In 2019, they were third in the NFL with 481 rushes. As their defense struggled in 2020, the Seahawks didn’t have a choice. They only had 411 rushes last season, but Pete Carroll has already emphasized this off-season the need of running the football on a more regular basis. As long as the Seahawks’ defense can make some strides in 2021, we should expect Pete Carroll to lean on Chris Carson and the running back just as much as he leans on Russell Wilson.
Chris Carson’s Volume and Defined Role
Chris Carson averages in games with a 50+% snap rate over the last 3 seasons:
— Jared Smola (@SmolaDS) June 9, 2021
18.9 carries
86.1 rushing yards
.62 rushing TDs
3.2 targets
2.6 catches
18.6 receiving yards
.14 TDs
Since 2018, Carson has averaged 18.5 touches per game. This comes out to 296 touches across 16-games. Fantasy football history is very, very friendly to running backs who eclipse the 300-touch mark. Since 2012, there have been 58 running backs to have 300 or more touches. Out of that 58, only nine failed to finish RB10 or higher. Carson’s three-year touch average just falls short of that 300 number, but he’s eclipsed that number once in 2019 and was on pace to pass it in 2018 too.
The Seattle backfield is as bare as it has ever been since 2018. Behind Carson lies Rashaad Penny and Deejay Dallas. Since being drafted in the first round, Penny has been a major disappointment. Dallas struggled mightily last year when he was provided an opportunity. He averaged only 3.2 yards per carry. Penny has shown some burst at times, but this is overshadowed by his bouts of inconsistency and his inability to stay on the field. Penny only played 38 snaps in 2020 after recovering from a significant knee injury that happened at the end of the 2019 season. Pete Carroll has never trusted Penny. The most snaps he’s ever played in a season is 17%. This is Chris Carson’s backfield.
We cannot forget Fumble-Gate of 2019. Chris Carson came down with a bad case of Fumblitis. Everyone worried he was going to lose his job. This was Penny’s chance. The changing of the guard. It never happened. It never even remotely happened. Pete Carroll loves him some Chris Carson. He has made that crystal clear over the last three seasons. There’s no reason to expect anything differently in 2021.
Final Piece of Advice – Draft Chris Carson
With the lack of competition behind him and the increased role we saw from Chris in the passing game last season, no one should be surprised if he finishes as an RB1 to end the 2021 season. He’s done it before. Actually, on a point per game basis, he’s done it every year since 2018.
There is so much to love about Carson and his situations. His low ranking is absurd. The fifth-year pro has everything we look for when trying to identify an RB1. He plays on an explosive offense with a great quarterback, which provides ample scoring opportunities. He commands a workhorse-type role and rarely comes off the field. The offensive scheme he’s playing in largely favors the running game. And on top of all that, he’s been incredibly effective the past three seasons.
Why are we not drafting Chris Carson again?
I appreciate you reading my work! You can find more of it @RobFFAddict. Please give me a follow and never be afraid to DM me if you have any fantasy football questions or just want to talk shop. Thanks again for reading!
