2021 Player Outlook: David Montgomery, Running Back, Chicago Bears
RB David Montgomery (Chicago Bears)
2020 PPR Ranking: 4
Offseason Changes
- Drafted QB Justin Fields 12th overall in the NFL Draft
- Signed QB Andy Dalton
- Signed RB Damien Williams
- RB Tarik Cohen returns from injury
- Drafted RB Khalil Herbert in the 6th round of the NFL Draft
- Drafted OT Teven Jenkins in the 2nd Round of the NFL Draft
- Re-signed OL Germain Ifedi
- Drafted OT Larry Borom in the 5th Round of the NFL Draft
- Cut OT Bobby Massie and lost OT Charles Leno Jr. in free agency
Projected Stats: 1,040 Rush Yards, 40-45 Receptions, 8-10 TDs
2021 PPR Projected Ranking: 16
Embed from Getty ImagesOverall Outlook
Which David Montgomery will we see in 2021? Is it the running back we saw in his first 25 NFL games? Or the one we saw in the final six of 2020? It’s been the tale of two Montgomerys. In those first 25 NFL games, Montgomery averaged a meager 3.67 yards-per-carry and notched only nine total touchdowns. Furthermore, he was used inconsistently in the passing game. His average receptions per game were right around two. As of Week 11 in 2020, Montgomery had only broken 100 yards twice in his career.
Let’s be clear, it wasn’t all Montgomery’s fault. The Bears’ offensive line was inconsistent, and the offense under Mitch Trubisky was a bit of a roller coaster. The lone bright spot for Montgomery was overall volume. Montgomery saw 267 touches his rookie season and has averaged between 15 and 20 touches per game.
Then came the final six games of 2020 and everything changed. After the bye, Montgomery looked like a different running back. He exploded for 598 yards on 116 carries. Adding eight total touchdowns, 24 receptions, and an additional 226 yards receiving. His average yards-per-carry rose to 5.1 during that span. In fantasy terms, Montgomery, the RB31 in average fantasy points-per-game (PPG) in 2019, was RB25 in average PPG after Week 10 in 2020. Those final six games vaulted Montgomery all the way to RB8 in average PPG by year’s end.
It was a stark contrast and turned Montgomery’s fantasy outlook around completely. While those six games were extremely encouraging, fantasy managers are left with a conundrum. How should we value Montgomery heading into 2021? For me, the answer lies somewhere in between. Let’s dive deeper into three factors influencing Montgomery’s value and production ahead of the season.
First, what type of volume we should expect for Montgomery going forward? He is undeniably the lead back in Chicago. However, the backfield looks significantly different this year. Montgomery’s running mates in 2020 were (wide receiver) Cordarrelle Patterson, Artavis Pierce, and Ryan Nall. Patterson led all backup running backs in rush attempts with 64. In fact, all non-Montgomery rushers only totaled 146 carries. After Tarik Cohen was injured early in 2020, the Bears were left with little depth at the position. Thus, it’s easy to understand why all volume went to Montgomery.
This season Cohen returns. In addition, Chicago added veteran running back Damien Williams and sixth-round rookie Khalil Herbert. Don’t get me wrong, I don’t expect huge fantasy production from Williams, Cohen, or Herbert. However, all three are capable running backs, particularly in the passing game. It’s hard to see Montgomery maintaining that passing game volume with a trio of able pass catchers to offset him. I expect Montgomery’s rushing attempts to hold steady but I’d put total receptions closer to 40 than 60 this season.
Embed from Getty ImagesNext, let’s focus on that offensive line. The line was fantastic during Montgomery’s run to end 2020. Can this year’s unit match that effort? Pro Football Focus (PFF) currently ranks Chicago’s offensive line 28th overall. Simply put, that is not ideal. Chicago is once again mixing in new faces on a line that has lacked stability and consistency in recent years. Out are Offensive Tackles Bobby Massie and Charles Leno Jr., in are rookies Teven Jenkins and Larry Borom. This unit’s performance will be one to monitor early on. Montgomery’s production will certainly be capped if the offensive line’s run blocking regresses.
Finally, how will Chicago’s overall offense and quarterback situation play into Montgomery’s fortunes? At the quarterback position, the situation is vastly different entering 2021. Former QB Mitch Trubisky is in Buffalo now, and Chicago drafted Ohio State standout Justin Fields 12th overall in the NFL Draft. Additionally, they signed veteran Andy Dalton.
As of now, coach Matt Nagy has insisted that Dalton will be the starting QB Week 1. However, I expect Fields to take over rather quickly. This could be both a positive and negative for Montgomery. A running quarterback like Fields threatens to take opportunities away. Particularly if designed runs are called for Fields at the goal line. On the flip side, the offense as a whole has a much higher ceiling with Fields at the helm. As a result, scoring opportunities and offensive efficiency should increase.
So, what does this all mean for Montgomery’s fantasy outlook? The offensive line and depth at running back are enough for me to exclude Montgomery from my top 12 at RB. That being said, he should maintain an ample workload on the ground. If he can remain efficient and convert his touchdown opportunities Montgomery has a solid RB2 floor. If you can draft him at that range in drafts this season Montgomery represents a nice value.
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