Fantasy Football Breakout Candidate: Brandon Aiyuk

WR Brandon Aiyuk (SF)

2020 Stats: 60 receptions for 748 yards, 5 TD; 77 rushing yards, 2 TD

The San Francisco 49ers liked Brandon Aiyuk enough to trade up and get him at No. 25 overall in the 2020 draft. He wound up playing in 12 games as a rookie, with team-highs in catches, yards and targets (96). Injuries to Deebo Samuel and George Kittle opened up an opportunity, and the Arizona State product delivered. In fantasy terms, he finished at WR35 in full PPR (WR18 by points per game in PPR).

Aiyuk also succeeded in spite of below-average quarterback play. Jimmy Garoppolo was injured again, as he only played six games and did not play after Week 8. From Week 7-15, regardless of scoring format, only Davante Adams and Tyreek Hill averaged more fantasy points per game among wide receivers than Aiyuk. In six straight games over that stretch (the ones he played in), he had at least 73 yards with more than 20 full PPR points five times and double-digit targets four times. Overall, he posted at least 15 PPR points seven times as a rookie.

Samuel missed nine games last season. In games he missed or left early, Aiyuk had double-digit targets four times. Kittle missed eight games, and with a h/t to CBS Sports, Aiyuk’s targets dropped nearly 2.5 per game in games with and without the 49ers’ star tight end.

Aiyuk targets per game (without Kittle): 7.9
Aiyuk targets per game (with Kittle): 5.5

Samuel had by far the lowest average depth of target among qualified wide receivers last year. By comparison Aiyuk had 12 targets 20 or more yards downfield, catching five for 165 yards.

Garoppolo is in line to open the season as the 49ers’ starting quarterback. But it may only be a matter of time before rookie Trey Lance takes over. Lance starting would naturally reduce the target volume to go around for the team’s pass catchers, and it’s not as if Kyle Shanahan will air it out like under normal circumstances with Garoppolo under center.

There’s a lot working against a breakout for Aiyuk this year. But Samuel looks like a pure gadget player, whereas Aiyuk is more than that. Kittle is the obvious bigger threat to target share, all the way around.

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Via Fantasy Football Calculator, Aiyuk is coming in at WR26 (pick 6.06) in full PPR and WR27 (pick 6.10) in standard scoring. That feels about right, on the WR2/WR3 border. Any higher would stretch toward his ceiling.

My projection may wind up looking like an underestimation when it’s all said and done, but week-to-week Aiyuk is lined up to be a volatile fantasy option if Kittle and Samuel are healthy. A full breakout, into the top-15-20 fantasy wide receivers, is a coin-flip proposition for 2021.

2021 Projection: 72 receptions for 920 yards, 7 TD; 75 rushing yards, 1 TD

Breakout Confidence Level: 50%

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