Will Nick Chubb’s Contract Extension Hurt his Fantasy Value?

The Cleveland Browns committed to running back Nick Chubb this offseason by signing him to a three-year contract extension worth $36.6 million. Chubb has been one of the most productive runners in the league over the last three seasons. In 44 career games, Chubb has averaged 5.2 yards per carry and over 80 rushing yards per game. With the NFL expanding to a 17th regular-season game in 2021, he has a very realistic chance to eclipse 1,200 rushing yards.

Much of Chubb’s success as a runner can be attributed to an elite offensive line. Pro Football Focus graded them as the second-best run-blocking line in 2020 and they return all five starters this season. The Browns’ offensive identity is built on running the ball and controlling the time of possession. Additionally, Odell Beckham Jr.’s return from injury should help keep defenses honest and benefit the run game. Chubb established himself as the best closer in the league last year by averaging 10 yards per carry in the fourth quarter.

Chubb is a breakout candidate who is already an elite running back, making him a paradox in the best way. He finished seventh in the league in total rushing yards last season, yet was second on his own team in carries. This suggests Chubb is nowhere near the ceiling of his potential. Chubb could take his game to an entirely new level in 2021.

Doubters will point to the timeshare with Kareem Hunt as a knock on Chubb. However, Chubb averaged over 17 carries per game over the last two seasons despite sharing the workload. Splitting time is an advantage because it allows him to stay fresh and maintain the elite efficiency that makes him so effective. Chubb also has less injury risk than other feature backs in the league since he plays fewer snaps. Less time on the field means fewer collisions and fewer opportunities for a non-contact injury. Predicting health for any NFL player is futile, but there is no reason to be concerned with Chubb. On the other hand, Chubb would see an enormous increase in workload if Hunt misses time.

Expect Chubb to produce at a high level this season. I project over 1,400 rushing yards and 10 TDs.

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