Learn from Past Mistakes and Become Better Fantasy Players

Luck is the most important aspect of fantasy football. Bad luck can negate hours of preparation and decimate the strongest teams. Good luck can overcome any blunder and bring a championship to the most inexperienced manager. Want to win? Get better luck. It’s generally smart to avoid walking under ladders and breaking mirrors, but acquiring good luck can be tricky. Unless you are willing to experiment with witchcraft or sign a blood pact, I recommend focusing your efforts on preparation. The second best way to win more at fantasy football is to learn from the past. Draft season is upon us and now is the time to review our mistakes from last season.

First, it is important to differentiate a mistake from simple bad luck. If you drafted Christian McCaffrey or Saquon Barkley last season you likely didn’t win your league championship. Those were not mistakes. Both players were ranked top five based on talent, recent performance history and projected workload. Their injuries were unfortunate, but not something we should look to control. So knock on wood and leave that in the past.

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The biggest mistake we can make as drafters is to misevaluate players. As a community, players like Stefon Diggs, Calvin Ridley and CeeDee Lamb were criminally underrated in 2020. Diggs was ranked outside the top-24 but finished as the third overall WR in PPR. Ridley never sniffed a top-12 ranking but finished fourth. Rookie CeeDee Lamb was available in the last few rounds but averaged over 13 points per game in 2020. Finding that much value in the draft is how leagues are won.

So how do we identify undervalued players and find value in the draft? The rabbit’s foot clipped to your keychain might help, but I have a better way. The key is to see through popular narratives. Diggs was faded in 2020 for reasons unrelated to his talent. He was portrayed as a disgruntled WR who forced his way onto a new team. His new QB Josh Allen was perceived as an inaccurate passer who ran too much to support a top WR. The fantasy football community ignored Diggs’ elite athletic profile and flashes of brilliance in Minnesota. Nobody gave Allen a chance to improve as a passer. We wrote off Allen too quickly and ignored Diggs’ talent. That was a mistake.

Can we identify parallel situations this year? Yes. Kenny Golladay with Daniel Jones and Will Fuller with Tua Tagovailoa. If you’re already cringing at the sound of these names you could be making the same mistake you did last year with Diggs. Talented WRs on new teams? Check. Young QBs who aren’t known for exceptional arm talent? Check. Being faded because of the narrative? Check. Both WRs have the tools to dominate; Golladay with size and physicality and Fuller with speed. Focus on the WR talent and give these QBs a chance to improve in 2021.

Let’s look at another example. Last season, CeeDee Lamb was a rookie joining a Dallas offense with an already established WR1 and WR2 in Amari Cooper and Michael Gallup. Everyone knew Lamb was a stud in college but nobody liked the fit because there were “too many mouths to feed.” Lamb was available near the end of your draft but was a solid fantasy option all season. Imagine his numbers if starting QB Dak Prescott were healthy all season. Talent found a way.

Jamar Chase is rightfully being pegged as this year’s Lamb. But are we missing the mark on anyone else? Davonta Smith and Rashod Bateman are names to consider. Popular narratives will have you believe they landed in bad situations. “Hurts is a bad passer” or “Jackson doesn’t throw enough to support a WR1.” Don’t repeat your mistakes. QBs can improve and offenses can evolve. Talent finds a way.

Calvin Ridley had major breakout potential last season but nobody realized just how high his ceiling was. He consistently produced alongside Julio Jones early in his career. He was an ascending talent on a pass-happy offense with a strong-armed QB. People knew he was good but underestimated his ceiling because he was the sidekick to an alpha WR. Was that wrong? No. But it’s important to understand that good offenses can support multiple high scoring fantasy options.

Recent data suggests it is common to have multiple fantasy-relevant WRs from the same NFL team. Last year, 11 NFL teams had at least two WRs average over 13 PPR points per game (with a minimum of 8 games played). Three teams had three receivers do it. Put another way, over 71 percent (25 out of 35) of WRs who scored over 13 fantasy points per game had a teammate do it too. This does not even include Travis Kelce and Tyreek Hill who are teammates that have simultaneously produced multiple dominant receiving seasons. This data suggests having multiple legitimate receiving threats on the same team makes it more likely for a WR to be fantasy relevant. The “too many mouths to feed” narrative is bogus.

One player who replicates the Ridley situation very closely is Mike Williams. Everyone knows Williams is second fiddle to Keenan Allen. But don’t make the same mistake that you did with Ridley. There will be plenty of passing volume from the Chargers’ strong-arm QB Justin Herbert. Williams has been great when on the field, his only knock has been health. But the funny thing about being “injury-prone” is that you are until you’re not. And the switch can flip that quickly. Keenan Allen was “injury prone” once upon a time and now his injury history is never talked about.

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Do any other players come to mind when thinking of narratives like “too many mouths to feed” or “low passing volume?” Consider players like Tee Higgins, Brandin Cooks and Jakobi Meyers. Do you feel a certain type of way about any of these players? Why do you like or dislike them? If the answers involve anything other than talent, I challenge you to rethink your evaluation process.

When drafting this season remember to invest in talent, ignore the narrative and clutch that four-leaf clover tightly. Good luck this season and don’t forget, your first-round pick says a lot about you…

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