Can You Trust a Cardinals Running Back in Week One?
Chase Edmonds is the top running back for the Arizona Cardinals according to average draft position (ADP) data. On average, Edmonds was selected as the 24th overall running back for the season, while teammate James Conner was selected 35th. Similarly, Edmonds ranks 28th among running backs for Week 1. Conner meanwhile clocks in at RB36. Given that ranking, can Edmonds be trusted as a fantasy football starter in Week 1?
Furthermore, is either player a running back you can trust going forward? Well, trust is a strong word, and the more I look into this backfield the more I see a situation that is cloudy at best. Another reason why this Cardinal’s game will have more eyes, is due to that fact that online sports betting went live in Arizona yesterday. The timing works out just in time for Week 1. In terms of point spreads The Cardinals are ranging from +2.5 to +3 underdogs away to the Titans, depending on the site.
Embed from Getty ImagesDistribution of Touches
First, let’s examine how the running back touches could be divided. Up to this point in his career, Edmonds has not seen a consistent workload of touches. In fact, he has never cracked 100 carries in a season. In 2020, Edmonds reached only 150 touches total, averaging just under 10 touches a game. Examing the game logs further, Edmonds cracked 10 carries only twice all season.
This season the Cardinals backfield looks a bit different. As noted, the Cardinals signed Conner in the offseason. Kenyan Drake, Edmonds’ running mate from a year ago, is now a Las Vegas Raider. Interestingly, Conner fits the role Drake commanded last season. Conner proved to be a capable runner and pass-catcher during his years with the Pittsburgh Steelers. In 2020, he had 169 rush attempts and 35 receptions. Now, Edmonds represents the more dangerous pass-catching option for the Cardinals. However, Conner could see significant opportunities on first and second down, and still receive the occasional third-down assignment.
Red Zone Work
Another interesting role to parse out is red-zone usage. Conner saw significant usage in the red zone for the Steelers in 2020. In total, Conner had 27 red zone carries including 10 carries inside the five-yard line. Overall, he converted five touchdowns from inside the five. In contrast, Edmonds has one, yes one, carry inside the five in his entire career. Drake led the team in red zone opportunities by a wide margin last season. Drake had 56 red zone carries and 22 attempts inside the five. Logic would suggest that Conner will handle the majority of the goal-line work this season.
Embed from Getty ImagesThe Mobile QB
A committee between two running backs can certainly cap fantasy value. Adding in a rushing quarterback only adds to the ceiling. It is well known that quarterback Kyler Murray is a fantastic rushing threat at the position. In 2020, Murray had 162 rushing attempts for 832 yards and 11 touchdowns. Murray himself received 8 carries inside the five-yard line. In 2021, not much should change. Murray will continue to get numerous carries and have his number called at the goal line. Additionally, Arizona ranked in the top half of the league in pass attempts. Overall, this means less opportunity for Conner and Edmonds.
Enter Rondale Moore
There is one more Cardinal that will certainly factor into the rushing game this year. That is the 2021 2nd round draft pick, Rondale Moore. Moore is electric with the ball in his hands and specializes in the short passing game. Look for the Cardinals to call designed wide receiver runs for Moore a couple of times per game. Furthermore, the short passing game to Moore could replace some rushing plays on the playsheet.
The Titans in Week 1
The Titans present a favorable matchup up for running backs in fantasy. They ranked 24th in rush defense last season. Additionally, they gave up an average of 20.9 fantasy points to opposing running backs. The only problem could be the game script. The Titans’ defense was dreadful versus the pass last season. Combine that with a potent Titans offense against a questionable Arizona defense, and we could be in store for a high-scoring affair. While opportunities will be there for the running backs, I favor the pass catchers on both teams in fantasy.
The duo of Edmonds and Conner is one to watch in Week 1. How they are used could be a big sign of what’s to come this season. If I had to choose one of the two this week, I would lean Edmonds due to his advantage in the passing game, but view him as a flex play. Ideally, I would try to avoid both this week if you have better options. Until we see how they are utilized both runnings backs will be difficult to trust week to week. Fantasy managers could be in store for a similar situation to Zack Moss and Devin Singletary from a season ago.
