The Only Sit/Start Advice You Need to Win Week 1

It is finally here…football season has started, and fantasy hopes are still universally high. 

The “problems” with week one are: 1) we are going off of last season’s stats and 2) preseason provided little to no direction.  But that’s okay. We still got this.

So let’s call week one start or temper your expectations:

PHILADELPHIA EAGLES v ATLANTA FALCONS, 48 o/u, Falcons favored by 3.5

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START: QUARTERBACK, JALEN HURTS, EAGLES

Last season the Atlanta Falcons gave up a total of 34 passing touchdowns and the league’s worst 293.6 average yards per game through the air.  They are also projected to have the second-worst defensive line in the NFL.

Am I sure you didn’t draft Hurts to be your QB1 (or did you)? But this is week one, and the matchup is delicious. 

SIT: RUNNING BACK, MIKE DAVIS, FALCONS

There will be a time when Davis’ truthers can take their victory lap…maybe.  The Falcons’ offensive line is problematic as they lost both center Alex Mack and left guard James Carpenter. 

This offense is built for the passing game with Calvin Ridley, Russell Gage, and Kyle Pitts looking for targets. Davis may be the odd man out.

New York Jets @ Carolina Panthers, 45 o/u, Panthers favored by 5

START: QUARTERBACK, SAM DARNOLD, PANTHERS

There is something to be said for the revenge motif.  Darnold gets to go up against a rebuilding team that dismissed him for the next new shiny toy. 

Add to that the Jets defense gave up the third-most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks, and there is potential for some tasty goodness. 

RUNNING BACK, MICHAEL CARTER, JETS

Carter’s value seemingly gained steamed during the preseason.  But remember, the Jets still have Tevin Coleman and Ty Johnson also seeking time in the backfield. 

Until we determine who the top dog is, it is best to try and employ a running back with less competition in a game that looks like a blowout.

LOS ANGELES CHARGERS @ WFT, 44.5 O/U, CHARGERS favored by 1

START: TIGHT END, LOGAN THOMAS, WFT

Thomas will be playing with a quarterback who will continuously sling the ball.  An obvious upgrade from last season where Thomas still managed to finish third in fantasy points to tight ends.

Now he gets to play the Chargers, who have allowed the sixth-most fantasy points to tight ends when the Chargers are on the road.

SIT: QUARTERBACK, JUSTIN HERBERT, CHARGERS

This is more of a “temper your expectations” unless your QB2 has a better matchup (Hurts anyone).  The WFT has the murders row of defensive players led by Chase Young, Montez Sweat, and Kendall Fuller.

This group had 47 sacks last season while holding opposing quarterbacks to under 15 fantasy points per game. 

Herbert is a stud, but this is his first game with a new head coach and offensive coordinator against a formidable foe. 

SAN FRANCISCO NINERS @ DETROIT LIONS, 45.5 o/u, Niners favored by 7.5

START: RUNNING BACK, RAHEEM MOSTERT, NINERS

Last season, the Detroit Lions gave up the most fantasy points to the running back position (opposing running backs averaged 139 yards/game).  They also were the worst in the NFL in stopping the running back in the passing game (giving up 10 total touchdowns).

SIT: RUNNING BACK, D’ANDRE SWIFT, LIONS

Swift has been nursing a groin injury all preseason.  He will also go up against a defense (although depleted last season) that gave up only 12 total rushing touchdowns while holding opposing running backs to 106 rushing yards/game.

PITTSBURGH STEELERS @ BUFFALO BILLS, 49 o/u, Bills favored by 6.5

START: RUNNING BACK, NAJEE HARRIS, STEELERS

It isn’t just that the Bills run defense was ranked 20^th giving up an average of 123.2 rushing yards/game in 2020.  Nor will I mention that the Steelers had the worse run offense in the NFL last season, averaging 82.5 rushing yards per game.

It is Harris and the propensity of Mike Tomlin and the Steelers to utilize a good running back in every conceivable way.  Look for Harris to not only gain rushing yards but have a healthy receiving yards stat.

SIT: RUNNING BACK, DEVIN SINGLETARY, BILLS

This is really sit any running back for the Bills.  The Steelers may be without the services of TJ Watt for this game, but considering Buffalo only rushed an average of 24.5 times a game last season (26^th in the league), gaining fantasy points on the backs of their backs is not an option.

SEATTLE SEAHAWKS @ INDIANAPOLIS COLTS, 49.5 o/u, Seahawks favored by 2.5

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START: WIDE RECEIVER, MICHAEL PITTMAN, COLTS

TY Hilton is out with an injury.  IF Carson Wentz goes, game one, Pittman is your man.  Pittman fits Wentz’s ideal target.  This game should be all about the pass with a 49.5 prediction and less than a field goal win prediction.

The Seahawks were 30^th passing defense in yards allowed last season, surrendering 278.2 passing yards per game.

SIT: RUNNING BACK, CHRIS CARSON, SEAHAWKS

I, for one, believe Carson will be a fantasy standout this season, just not this game.  The Colts’ rushing defense held Minnesota’s Dalvin Cook to 63 rushing yards in their 2020 matchup. And it wasn’t a fluke.  For the entire 2020 NFL season, the Colts gave up a total of 16 rushing touchdowns while allowing opposing running backs to gain a miserly 90.8 yards/game (second in the NFL).

MINNESOTA VIKINGS @ CINCINNATI BENGALS, 47.5 o/u, Vikings favored by 3.5

START: WIDE RECEIVER, TYLER BOYD, BENGALS

Chances are you got Boyd at a discount in your 2021 fantasy football draft.  Valid, since there are plenty of mouths to feed in this receiving corps.

However, in week one, they go against a Vikings defense that should be improved from the 2020 defense that gave up the sixth-most fantasy points to the wide receiver position.  That improvement isn’t going to happen in week one. 

The rookie Ja’Marr Chase is an option, as is Tee Higgins.  But in game one, I am trying to play the stats:

Chase: Rookie

Boyd: 2020, 15 games played, 110 targets, 79 receptions, 841 yards

Higgins: 2020, 16 games played, 108 targets, 67 receptions, 908 yards

SIT: TIGHT END, CHRISTOPHER HERNDON, VIKINGS

After the season-ending injury to Irv Smith Jr., Herndon became a darling in a very shallow tight end pool. Don’t jump in just yet. 

The Vikings will still run their offense through Dalvin Cook and, when necessary (as this game projects), will willingly pass to Justin Jefferson and Adam Thielen.

JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS @ HOUSTON TEXANS 44.5 o/u, Jaguars favored by 3

START: RUNNING BACK, JAMES ROBINSON, JAGUARS

The Texans are projected to be one of the worst teams in the NFL this season, and really there is no reason to think otherwise. 

Good news for those who grabbed Robinson in their fantasy leagues.  The Texans were the worst team in the NFL against the run last season, allowing an average of 160 rushing yards/game while giving up 24 rushing touchdowns. 

Trevor Lawrence is the attraction here but look for Robinson to be the fantasy darling of this game.

SIT: QUARTERBACK, TYROD TAYLOR, TEXANS

This is not a knock on Taylor.  Neither team was good against the run.  The Jaguars, for their part, gave up the fourth most rushing touchdowns to the running back position, so this should be all about the ground game. 

ARIZONA CARDINALS @ TENNESSEE TITANS, 52 o/u, Titans favored by 3

START: QUARTERBACK, KYLER MURRAY, CARDINALS

The Titans have a new secondary this year.  Most likely because their secondary last year gave up 36 passing touchdowns and had the fourth-worst passing yards to opposing quarterbacks (277).

The new secondary should be an improvement, but not in the first game of the season.

SIT: TIGHT END, ANTHONY FIRKSER, TITANS

This is by no means an attempt to quiet the hype of Firkser.  With Jonnu Smith gone, he is the man in the tight end room. It is just that the Titans’ offense runs through Derrick Henry.  When they need to pass, they will go to AJ Brown or Julio Jones, leaving Firkser as the third option in a run-first offense. 

Not usually a calculation for good fantasy scoring.

MIAMI DOLPHINS @ NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS, 43.5 o/u, Patriots favored by 3

START: RUNNING BACK, DAMIEN HARRIS, PATRIOTS

The Patriots will start rookie quarterback Mac Jones.  The Dolphins tied for the league lead in interceptions last season with 18.  It doesn’t seem likely that this will be a game that relies on either quarterbacks’ arm.

SIT: QUARTERBACK, TUA TAGOVAILOA, DOLPHINS

The Patriots will return several defensive players who opted out in the 2020 season.  Even without them, they managed to tie for the league lead in interceptions in the 2020 season with 18. 

Last season in 10 games, Tagovailoa had 11 touchdowns and five interceptions, three of which came when playoff hopes were on the line.  Has he improved? The Belichick defense is going to test him out.  Better them than your fantasy team. 

DENVER BRONCOS @ NEW YORK GIANTS, 41.5 o/u, Broncos favored by 3

START: RUNNING BACK, MELVIN GORDON, BRONCOS

This game has the lowest projected total of any game for week one of the 2021 NFL Season. 

There is a concern because rookie Javonte Williams is going to be sharing touches with Gordon.  But look for that to happen later rather than sooner, making Gordon the leader in backfield touches for the time being. 

The Giants defense gave up 4.23 yards per carry last season.  That should be enough to sustain Gordon’s value for this week.

SIT: QUARTERBACK, DANIEL JONES, GIANTS

There is no confidence in the Giants’ offensive line.  There is confidence in the return of Von Miller and Bradley Chubb.  With Jones’s propensity to turn the ball over, this is truly one of the worst ways to start his season.

GREEN BAY PACKERS @ NEW ORLEANS SAINTS, 50 o/u, Packers favored by 4.5

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START: RUNNING BACK, ALVIN KAMARA, SAINTS

This may seem like a “Thank you, Captain Obvious” moment, but it is also a “temper your expectations” moment. 

This game will be played at a neutral site because of Hurricane Ida.  The Saints will also be without the services of Michael Thomas. 

Look for the Packers to test out Jameis Winston while Sean Payton attempts to minimize the potential damage Winston is capable of.  Everyone knows that Kamara is pivotal in both. 

SIT: RUNNING BACK, AARON JONES, PACKERS

Last season the Saints’ defense gave up the least fantasy points to opposing running backs (in standard formats).  They also, however, only allowed 11 total rushing touchdowns and surrendered 93.9 average rushing yards.

CLEVELAND BROWNS @ KANSAS CITY CHIEFS, 54.5 o/u, Chiefs favored by 6

START: RUNNING BACK, NICK CHUBB, BROWNS

Chubb is somehow the forgotten man at the beginning of the fantasy season.  No matter, he will remind people of why he is an elite running back. 

The Browns will attempt to keep Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs off the field.  Chubb is the man.  The Chiefs’ defense gave up 4.59 yards per carry last season.  Chubb can work with that.

SIT: RUNNING BACK, CLYDE EDWARDS-HELAIRE, CHIEFS

The Browns’ defense got a little better with the acquisition of Jadeveon Clowney.  CEH is nursing an injured ankle.  He is in an explosive offense that was third in passing attempts per game in 2020 (39.7).

There is also the problem that CEH has not shown an ability to get the ball past the goal line consistently.  In 2020 he had 32 red zone touches that culminated in four rushing touchdowns. 

CHICAGO BEARS @ LOS ANGELES RAMS, 46 o/u, Rams favored by 7.5

START: TIGHT END, TYLER HIGBEE, RAMS

Matthew Stafford is in.  Gerald Everett is out.  The Bears also gave up the second-most fantasy points to tight ends last season. 

SIT: QUARTERBACK, ANDY DALTON, BEARS

The Bears and Matt Nagy may have confidence in starting Dalton that doesn’t mean you have to. 

The Rams’ defense may look slightly different, but Aaron Donald and Jalen Ramsey are still there.  This defense ended the 2020 season second in sacks (53) and held opposing quarterbacks to an average of 15 points per game.

BALTIMORE RAVENS @ LAS VEGAS RAIDERS, 51.5 o/u, Ravens favored by 4.5

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START: RUNNING BACK, GUS EDWARDS, RAVENS

The Ravens may say they will pass the ball more, but why would they against the Raiders? 

The Raiders gave up 125.8 average rushing yards per game.  They also surrendered 24 total rushing touchdowns in the 2020 season (1.5 per game). 

Meanwhile, the Ravens averaged 192.1 rushing yards per game on 34.6 rushing attempts (both first in the NFL). 

Look for much to stay the same in this game.

SIT: RUNNING BACK, JOSH JACOBS, RAIDERS

This is less about Jacobs and more about Jon Gruden.  Why is Kenyan Drake there?  Why is their offensive line suddenly in question?

It will be hard to depend on Jacobs until more is learned, especially in an MNF game.

WEEK 1 PROP BET

If you are wanting to add a little spice to your fantasy day, don’t forget about prop bets that you can dive into:

Herbert’s passing yards over/under 257.5 (-114)

Jameis Winston passing yards over/under 259.5 (-114)

THAT SAID

Hey, it is week one!  Be thankful that football is back.  Be happy that you have the opportunity to dominate your league. And as always, stay with GoingFor2 for all your fantasy needs this season.

For DFS advice, remember there are few better than @FantasyGDFS.

Come talk at me on Twitter @gladysLtyler

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