NFL 2021: The Only Sit Start Advice to Win Week 3

We are three weeks in and patterns are starting to emerge.  Still too early to panic, but never too early to watch for trends and follow them. 

The games are listed by highest to lowest over/under.

LOS ANGELES CHARGERS @ KANSAS CITY CHIEFS, 55o/u, Chiefs -6.5

Let’s start off with the first no-brainer of the day.

START: TIGHT END, TRAVIS KELCE, KANSAS CITY

The Chargers have allowed tight ends to average 10.6 yards per reception.  They rank 28^th in Defensive DVOA (defense adjusted value over average) against tight ends.

But perhaps you wanted more?  Okay.  The Chargers are also ranked 21^st in defending wide receivers outside of the top two targets. 

Last week Patrick Mahomes targeted nine different receiving options.

SIT: CLYDE EDWARDS-HELAIRE, KANSAS CITY

This is one of the few times both start and sits options are from the same team.  Last week, the Chargers allowed the Dallas Cowboys combo to rush for 198 yards and two touchdowns.  But CEH isn’t currently in that stratosphere. 

CEH is currently RB47 in fantasy football, and he has had three red-zone touches and zero touchdowns. You are going to need more for CEH to become fantasy-relevant.

SEATTLE SEAHAWKS @MINNESOTA VIKINGS, 55 o/u, Seahawks -1

Did you know that Russell Wilson is just 16 games over .500 away from home? He is 40 games over .500 when playing at home.  (This would be a temper your expectation PSA)

START: ADAM THIELEN, WIDE RECEIVER, VIKINGS

We are all expecting it, and yes, Thielen at some point will inevitably have a touchdown regression from last year’s stats. 

But he currently is tied for second in receptions (15) and receiving touchdowns (3). 

SIT: GERALD EVERETT, TIGHT END, SEAHAWKS

This game should be a shoot-out.  Wilson also has DK Metcalf, Tyler Lockett, and Chris Carson to take targets. 

While Everett is on the field for 72.6% of the offensive snaps, he only sees a 7.7% target share (four targets in two games).

With Freddie Swain potentially out, he could see more of the targets, but there are 28 other tight ends (he is currently TE29) where you could put your fantasy hopes.

TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS @ LOS ANGELES RAMS, 54.5 o/u PK

Did you know that the Tampa Bay offense has 12 passes of 20 yards or more?  And the Rams defense has only allowed three passes for 20 yards or more?  Hmmm

START: TYLER HIGBEE, TIGHT END, RAMS

So far in LA, it appears to be the Cooper Kupp show, but maybe it isn’t as lopsided as it appears.  Kupp has 21 targets, Robert Woods has 13, and Higbee has seven. 

The Buccaneers’ defense has not only allowed the third-most passing yards per game, but they are 18^th in points allowed to the tight end position  (13).

This could be a good day for both tight ends.

SIT: MIKE EVANS, WIDE RECEIVER, BUCCANEERS

This is a Jalen Ramsey PSA. Ramsey has eight solo tackles, two stops, one interception, is allowing seven yards per reception, and quarterbacks have a 25.6 passer rating when looking his way. 

This ends your Ramsey PSA for today.

PHILADELPHIA EAGLES @ DALLAS COWBOYS, 51.5 o/u, Dallas -4

START: DeVONTA SMITH, WIDE RECEIVER, EAGLES

Smith is on the field for 83.6% of the offensive snaps.  He leads the Eagles wide receivers with 15 targets in two games.

The Dallas Cowboys’ defense ranks 31^st in passing yards allowed (346) and are 28^th in fantasy points to wide receivers.

SIT: DALTON SCHULTZ, TIGHT END, COWBOYS

The Eagles are 10^th in points allowed to the tight end position (6).  Their bend but don’t break defense has held Kyle Pitts to 31 receiving yards and George Kittle to 17 receiving yards.

ARIZONA CARDINALS @ JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS, 52 o/u, Cards -7.5

START: CHASE EDMONDS, RUNNING BACK, CARDINALS

Let’s start with the bad. James Conner has five more red zone attempts than Edmonds.  Now the good.  Edmonds has a 61% snap share and has out-touched Conner 29 to 24.  Edmonds is also averaging 5.45 yards per carry.  And now they will play Jacksonville, who are ranked 27^th in fantasy points allowed to the running back position.

Give your input, enter your number, and if you win…. earn free stuff!

SIT: DJ CHARK, WIDE RECEIVER, JACKSONVILLE

Quarterback Trevor Lawrence holds a 39% uncatchable pass rate per Football Outsiders, leading all quarterbacks.  Chark is third on the team in target share, behind both Marvin Jones and Laviska Shenault. 

BALTIMORE RAVENS @ DETROIT LIONS, 49.5 o/u, Ravens -9.5

START: TY’SON WILLIAMS, RUNNING BACK, RAVENS

It isn’t just that the Ravens rush the ball on 55.56% of their plays.  Or that Williams has 22 carries, six targets, and four red-zone touches in two games.  Or even that he is possibly the last man standing. 

The Detroit Lions rank 32^nd in points allowed to the running back position (32.9).  And, of course, Aaron Jones torched them last week for four touchdowns and 115 yards. 

Don’t worry about the timeshare. There should be plenty to go around.

SIT: JAMAAL WILLIAMS, RUNNING BACK, LIONS

Williams started off strong, averaging 6.6 yards per carry Week 1 against the San Francisco Niners.  But last week against Green Bay, Williams averaged 3.6 yards per carry.  He also only saw three targets (six less than week one).

The Ravens are ranked 20^th in fantasy points to the running back position (18.05).

ATLANTA FALCONS @ NEW YORK GIANTS, 48.5 o/u, Giants -3

START: DANIEL JONES, QUARTERBACK, GIANTS

Did you know that Jones is QB5? He has 516 passing yards and 122 rushing yards.   Now, remember that the Falcons have given up eight passing touchdowns in two games, including three touchdowns and 62 rushing yards week one to Jalen Hurts.

SIT: MIKE DAVIS, RUNNING BACK, FALCONS

Davis is averaging 3.63 yards per carry.  He has also been targeted 13 times for 10 receptions and 48 yards. 

The Falcons’ offense looks inept.  And unfortunately, on a team that passes the ball on 65.41% Davis has to be behind Calvin Ridley, Russell Gage, and Kyle Pitts for importance.

GREEN BAY PACKERS @ SAN FRANCISCO NINERS, 48o/u, Niners -3.5

START: ROBERT TONYAN, TIGHT END, PACKERS

So Tonyan saved your fantasy week two with his touchdown.  Tonyan is on the field for 46% of the offensive snaps and 11.7% target share. 

This should bode well as he goes against the Niners, who give up 10.45 fantasy points to the tight end position (24^th ranked).

SIT: ELIJAH MITCHELL, RUNNING BACK, NINERS

Mitchell left and returned in Week 2 with a shoulder injury.  He didn’t practice Wednesday, and head coach Kyle Shanahan said he “has a chance to go on Sunday.”

We all know what Shanahan thinks of our fantasy football teams, and this is too iffy to risk a position.

CHICAGO BEARS @ CLEVELAND BROWNS, 46.5o/u, Browns -7.5

START: JUSTIN FIELDS, QUARTERBACK, BEARS

This was a fence sitter.  But Fields running ability gives him a solid floor and a potentially high ceiling.

SIT: ODELL BECKHAM JR., WIDE RECEIVER, BROWNS

This should be a smash…right?  But OBJ still hasn’t cleared (as of this writing), and if he does clear, this will be his first time on the field in quite some time.

WASHINGTON FOOTBALL TEAM @ BUFFALO BILLS, 46o/u, Bills -9.5

START: COLE BEASLEY, WIDE RECEIVER, BILLS

Beasley is a monster when playing at home, and the trend appears to be continuing this season (but hey, it has only been two games).  At home against the Steelers, he had 13 targets, eight receptions, and 60 yards.  Away against Miami, he had four targets, four receptions, and 36 yards.

He is on the field for 76.8% offensive snaps and is second on the team with a 21.8% target share.  Look for him to get double-digit targets and a touchdown. 

SIT: TAYLOR HEINICKE, QUARTERBACK, WFT

The Bills have only given up a total of 18.58 fantasy points to the quarterback position.  The Dolphins’ quarterbacks combined for 182 passing yards, zero touchdowns, one interception, and four sacks. In week one, Ben Roethlisberger had a total of 188 passing yards.

CINCINNATI BENGALS @ PITTSBURGH STEELERS, 44.5o/u, Steelers -4.5 

START: NAJEE HARRIS, RUNNING BACK, STEELERS

The current health situation of quarterback Ben Roethlisberger is undecided.  The Bengals are decent against the running back, giving up only 13.05 fantasy points to the position (11^th). 

But Harris is on the field for 96.4% snap share, with 26 carries and four red-zone touches.  He also has an 11.1% target share. The volume alone should garnish fantasy value (especially with an injured Roethlisberger in or out).

SIT: JOE BURROW, QUARTERBACK, CINCINNATI

Burrow has been sacked nine times in two games.  Last week against the Chicago Bears, he also tossed in three interceptions.  In a divisional game with every team in division 1-1, look for the Steelers’ defense to make this a statement game. 

NEW ORLEANS SAINTS @ NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS, 43o/u, Patriots -3

START: SAINTS DEFENSE or PATRIOTS DEFENSE

With an o/u of 43, there isn’t much scoring on the horizon.  The Patriots’ defensive strength is in their secondary, and the Saints’ defensive strength is in the defensive line.  Play either defense with confidence.

SIT: JAMEIS WINSTON, QUARTERBACK, SAINTS

There is always the fear of which Winston will show up.  But this is more about the -3 turnover differential that the Patriots’ defense is currently touting.  And also, there are the five interceptions the secondary has made in two games. 

NEW YORK JETS @ DENVER BRONCOS, 41.5 o/u, Broncos -11

START: TEDDY BRIDGEWATER, QUARTERBACK, BRONCOS

Bridgewater will play his first home game with a 77.1% completion rate, having passed for 592 yards, four touchdowns, and zero interceptions in two games. 

The Jets, for their part, have given up 18 touchdown passes in two games.  This seems like an easy choice?

Did you know that he has attempted more passes over 20 yards than any other quarterback this season?

SIT: ZACH WILSON, QUARTERBACK, NEW YORK JETS

Wilson is currently the 31^st ranked quarterback.  He has two touchdowns, five interceptions, and one fumble.  He will march into Denver with a 55.7% completion rate. 

This, too, seems like an easy choice against a formidable Broncos’ defense.

MIAMI DOLPHINS @ LAS VEGAS RAIDERS, N/A, Raiders -3.5

START: DEREK CARR, QUARTERBACK, RAIDERS

Did you know that the Raiders are fifth in team passing plays percentage (68.06%)?

Carr has passed for 817 yards with 13 red zone attempts leading to four touchdowns and one interception.  Last week against the Steelers defense, he passed for 382 yards and two touchdowns.  Three different receivers were targeted seven times, and Kenyan Drake was targeted six times. 

SIT: JACOBY BRISSETT, QUARTERBACK, DOLPHINS

This will be Brissett’s first start since the last week of the 2019 season.  He has a career completion percentage south of 55%. 

In their two wins, the Raiders’ defense has five sacks, three fumbles, and one interception.  This just feels like a time to play the Raiders defense.

CONCLUSION

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