Hot or Not Fantasy for Week 8 in the NFL
I don’t have anything prophetic or funny to start us off with this week. I must be losing my edge. Maybe I never was funny. Maybe this is a lame attempt at a joke about not being funny.
As always, this column is not a start/sit column but will give you my opinion’s on players based on their ranks on Goingfor2.com. If you would like to yell at me for my awful takes, you can find me on Twitter @KyleTheCommish.
HOT: QUARTERBACKS
Embed from Getty ImagesJosh Allen, BUF vs MIA (Consensus Rank: QB1, My Rank: QB1)
Heckler: “Hey you stupid writer. I already know Josh Allen is gonna be good. Having him as QB1 when everyone else has him as QB1 is BORING! Tell me something I don’t know!”
If you are a first-time Josh Allen owner, you may be confused that Josh Allen is QB1 this week, above Mahomes and Kyler. When he played the Dolphins back in Week 2, he only scored 17 fantasy points and didn’t even reach 200 yards passing. He was missing some passes that he normally hits and had one of his bottom-half rushing performances. All of that is true. So why is everyone so high on him?
Well, what is also true is they won that game 35-0 because Jacoby Brissett (not Tua) gave short fields to the Bills on multiple occasions. Devin Singletary broke a 46-yard touchdown run on the first drive of the game. Zack Moss finished the game off with 2 goal-to-go rushing touchdowns himself. This was not a favorable script for Josh Allen and he was not needed to do typical Josh Allen things. That being said, I don’t expect Josh will need to become Superman in this game either. But the game will be more competitive with Tua at the helm and the play-calling issues somewhat figured out in Miami.
Last year, Josh Allen put up over 30 fantasy points five times. In the two games against Miami, he scored 34.5 points and 20.2 points. The funny thing is that he scored 20.2 points in just one half because they benched him in the second half of their Week 17 matchup. Anything under 30 points this week would be a surprise.
Carson Wentz, IND vs TEN (Consensus Rank: QB15, My Rank: QB12)
I stan Carson Wentz. Not so much in fantasy football, but in real life. The guy has a bit of a decision-making problem, but so did some of the greatest QBs to ever do it. When Carson has some healthy options around him, he is able to deal the ball and be aggressive without being risky. That has shown in 2021. 12 (total) Touchdowns. 1 Interception. Yes, he has 3 fumbles lost as well, but that passing touchdown to interception ratio of 11:1 is elite.
Since this is a fantasy column, maybe I should talk about his fantasy outlook. Carson is QB17 on the season but has only one week above 20 fantasy points. 20 points are my personal threshold of what a good week for a QB is. The Titans defense has given up 20 points to QBs four different times. The three QBs that did not reach that plateau: Patrick Mahomes (last week’s game which was weird), Zach Wilson, and… Carson Wentz.
Now I sound like the crazy guy on the corner because why would you start Wentz when not only did he not score 20 in their first meeting, but he didn’t even score 10?! In that game, Jonathan Taylor didn’t play half the snaps and only received 11 touches. The Colts could not convert in the red zone, kicking two FGs from inside the 10-yard line. They were not as aggressive because they were in a close game. This game should be different. The Colts need to win if they want to keep themselves alive in the division. That first matchup was the only game that Wentz did not have a single touchdown and since then has scored at least 2 touchdowns in every game.
If you need a safe 18 points this week from the QB position with Lamar or Carr on a bye, Wentz should be viable as a streamer. Oh, and did I mention the Titans are averaging almost 300 passing yards against them? Carson has only hit that mark once. Calling my shot on a second such game.
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NOT: QUARTERBACKS
Embed from Getty ImagesMatthew Stafford, LAR @ HOU (Consensus Rank: QB4, My Rank: QB8)
I hate having to choose a quarterback to not like in a given week. The top 10 or so guys are all set-it and forget-it players. You’d never bench them unless you had another equally elite quarterback but why would you have that issue? Just trade one. So I guess what I am saying is you should trade Matthew Stafford for the week so you don’t have to deal with having him on the bench. Now that is some sound fantasy advice.
The Texans are not good at football. Their offense may get Tyrod Taylor back this week, which should help their scoring woes (and help Stafford’s game script), but their defense is abysmal, especially against the pass. They are 8th worst against the quarterback position and if you are a weekly reader you know they are one of the worst against the tight end position as well. So why would Stafford be on the Not list?
Houston has three games this year in which they have lost by more than 15 points. That number is not pulled out of thin air. The spread this week for Rams-Texans is LAR -14.5. Here are the quarterbacks and fantasy point totals for each of those games.
Josh Allen: 20.02
Carson Wentz: 17.02
Kyler Murray: 22.44
In each of those games, those offenses scored more than 30 points and their QBs averaged around 20 points per game. He will have a good game, but I do have other QBs like Dak, Hurts, and Brady ranked above him this week.
HOT: RUNNING BACKS
Najee Harris, PIT @ CLE (Consensus Rank: RB12, My Rank: RB7)
This is a tough matchup on paper so I understand the hesitation from our rankers to put Najee inside the top 10, but I’m all the way in for PPR leagues. Since Week 2, Najee has had a minimum of 5 targets in every game. In his last 2 games, Najee has received an RB1 workload with over 20 rushing attempts in each game. And finally, Najee is on an exclusive list of players that have scored in each of their last three games: Damien Harris, Leonard Fournette, Jonathan Taylor, Derrick Henry, Joe Mixon, Josh Jacobs, DeAndre Hopkins, D’Andre Swift, Hunter Henry, Najee Harris.
So we know the carries and targets are there. We also know the Steelers trust Najee to run the ball when they get in close. How is he not in the top 5 this week and every week going forward? Well, the Browns defense has not been kind to running backs this year. They are giving up only 3.6 yards per carry, which is 2nd best in the NFL. It is such an issue that teams have decided against running the ball on them altogether. They are tied for the 5th fewest carries to running backs, with 18 on average. They held Dalvin Cook/Alexander Mattison and David Montgomery to under 10 points in their respective games. But there is a beacon of hope. Austin Ekeler went bananas against the Browns.
30.9 fantasy points. Yes, he had three touchdowns, but HE HAD THREE TOUCHDOWNS. One of them was a fluke because he was trying to run out the clock. But the two others show me that they aren’t impenetrable on halfback screens (he had one receiving/one rushing) or just running it up the gut on the goal line. Austin got 5 catches in this game in total and 17 rushing attempts. Sound familiar?
Najee’s game reminds me a lot of Ekelers’, or at least in what each team asks of the running back position. Alignments all over the field, a focal point in goal-line work, and very busy catching the ball. I think his point total will be closer to Ekeler’s than Cook/Mattison/Montgomery’s.
Leonard Fournette, TB @ NO (Consensus Rank: RB18, My Rank: RB10)
Do you know what is worse than trying to run on the Browns? Trying to run on the Saints. An average of TWO POINT EIGHT yards per carry. That number doesn’t even make sense as a fan of the delirious Dolphins. The Saints have played some pretty good running backs already too. Aaron Jones, Saquon Barkley, Christian McCaffrey were all healthy in their matchups against the Saints. Like those players, there is a lot more to their game than just running the football. Fournette has become Brady’s most reliable check-down option since Julian Edelman.
Averaging just shy of 4 catches per game (on 5 targets), Leonard Fournette has completely changed his game since his days in Jacksonville. You still don’t want to go downhill against Lenny, but now you have to watch him in space too. Oh, and he is still a trusted touchdown scorer with 4 scores in his last three contests. In the second matchup against the Saints last year, Lenny played over half of the snaps and wasn’t used as a runner but instead got 6 catches out of the backfield.
Antonio Brown is hampered and doesn’t look like he will be playing this game. Marshon Lattimore and Mike Evans will be having a heavyweight bout on the perimeter. Gronk may be returning this week (which I will discuss further), but Godwin is the only option this week with a plus matchup on paper. Brady doesn’t force the ball too often so I think they will try to work the run game to open up play-action so they can access more of the field.
One more thing I want to touch on. If this call goes bad, I think it will have to do with Gronk returning and having a good game. Brady knows where Gronk is going to be at all times and is his most reliable option on any given play. Leonard has been receiving a steady stream of targets going back to when Gronk was healthy, but I have a weird suspicion that there could be some cause and effect if Gronk returns.
D’Ernest Johnson, CLE vs PIT (Consensus Rank: RB40, My Rank: RB20)
Nick Chubb is expected to return to the lineup this weekend against the Steelers, but don’t write off D’Ernest Johnson quite yet. The Browns have always rotated their running backs under Kevin Stefanski. The most snaps Nick Chubb has played in a game going back to last year was 62%. If you’re telling me D’Ernest gets around 40% of the snaps, then he is high on my flex radar until Kareem Hunt returns.
I don’t expect Hunt-like efficiency for Johnson. That would be unreasonable. I also don’t expect him to steal goal-line work from Chubb as Hunt did. But Hunt’s workload of around 10 carries and 5 targets per game should bank us over 10 points based on what we have seen from D’Ernest in the past. In his three games with enough snaps, he has averaged 6.6, 7, and 4 yards per carry. The Steelers defense has been good at limiting TDs to running backs but I don’t think that will affect D’Ernest as much as it will Chubb. They have given up over 4 yards per carry and almost 9 yards per catch in open play. A modest stat line of 40 rushing yards, 4 catches, and 40 receiving yards will get us to 12 fantasy points. I’ll take those numbers.
Cute Running Backs (Others Receiving Votes):
I already mentioned Zack Moss having 2 goal-to-go touchdowns against the Dolphins in their first meeting this year. Honestly, I expect more production this week. If you remember, Moss was a healthy scratch in Week 1. They played in Miami in Week 2 and he only played 28% of the snaps, had a fumble lost… and still scored twice. Since that game, he has not had less than 50% snaps or less than 10 touches.
I faded Khalil Herbert last week against a stout Bucs rush defense. So of course, he just needed to go drop 100 yards on them. I am honestly shocked at that performance. Not just because he ran so well, but because the Bears kept running the ball regardless of the score. Take your collar off the young QB or put Dalton back in, Nagy. Even with Damien Williams back last week, Khalil earned his 77% snap share and will dominate the touches once again against modest 49ers rush defense. I feel safe with him as my RB2 until Montgomery returns to action.
As of this writing, Miles Sanders has logged two DNP’s on the injury report so I suspect he will be out against the lowly Lions. Enter, Kenneth Gainwell. The snap leader at 53% over Boston Scott and Co., Kenneth is mainly a pass-catcher for the Eagles and was targeted 8 times against the Raiders. Hurts looked to him out of the backfield prior to the Sanders injury, so this won’t be an unfamiliar situation for either player. Boston Scott did steal a rushing touchdown last week, but Gainwell found the end zone on a receiving touchdown.
NOT: RUNNING BACKS
Embed from Getty ImagesDamien Harris, NE @ LAC (Consensus Rank: RB17, My Rank: RB25)
Harris has played twice against the Jets. In those games, he has 176 yards and 3 TDs. In the other five games, he has 321 yards and 2 TDs. The Patriots do not play the Jets this week.
Yes, Damien does have a three-game touchdown streak going right now. Yes, he is playing the Chargers, who are god awful against the run. Yes, the Patriots will need to try to run the ball to keep the ball out of Herbert’s hands. No, I don’t think they will be in a run-script for very long. If the Patriots get in goal-to-go the ball is going to either Hunter Henry (see more on him later) or Damien Harris. But if they don’t get there?
Damien Harris hasn’t played above 50% of the snaps since Week 4 against Tampa. JJ Tayor, Brandon Bolden, and Rhamondre Stevenson are all getting touches and snaps the last few weeks. I would start him as a flex player but I don’t trust him as my RB2. Try to trade him while you can.
Antonio Gibson, WSH @ DEN (Consensus Rank: RB20, My Rank: RB33)
Gibson is getting out-snapped by JD McKissic. How much of it is due to Antonio’s injury? How much is due to GB and KC being able to score at will? How much is due to Antonio fumbling in back-to-back weeks?
Remember the preseason hype on Gibson? That he would be the McCaffrey of the Washington Football Team. Ahh, those were good times. The present is so depressing, let’s just go back to that.
Washington is basically playing all-time running back and all-pass catcher with Gibson and McKissic, limiting both of their fantasy upsides. Gibson would be the goal-line back if they were getting down there with consistency and running the ball in close. They seem to be putting the ball in Heinicke’s hands down there and telling him to make something happen.
Denver did not do a grand job last week against D’Ernest Johnson or any of Cleveland’s backs. I just can’t trust Gibson when he is playing injured, fumbling, not getting the snaps, and not getting any passing work. I trust McKissic more this week… again. *sigh*
HOT: PASS CATCHERS
Embed from Getty ImagesStefon Diggs, BUF vs MIA (Consensus Rank: WR5, My Rank: WR2)
I know I predicted his breakout game against the Chiefs a few weeks back and it didn’t exactly work out as I planned. Well, this time I’m back and I’m doubling down. And by doubling down I mean doing the same exact thing which is not what doubling down means.
Diggs targets against Miami since joining Buffalo: 13, 8, 8. Touchdowns: 1, 0, 1. Yards: 153, 76, 60. It looks like he is going in the wrong direction. But here is some context. Week 2, 2020 was a back and forth game where Miami actually had a few chances to win. Week 17, 2020, Josh Allen was benched at halftime of a blowout. Week 2, 2021, the Dolphins shot themselves in the foot and Josh Allen did not need to throw but when he did still targeted Diggs 8 times and found him in the end zone. Now I’m not saying Miami is going to be competitive. But I do think it’ll be somewhere in between Week 2 and 17 last year.
I am not worried about Xavien Howard’s shadow. He is not playing up to the elite level he was last year and when they have shadowed X on Diggs, the Buffalo WR has still won most of the time.
Adam Thielen, MIN vs DAL (Consensus Rank: WR20, My Rank: WR14)
Speaking of Diggs. Trevon Diggs has been a revelation for the Cowboys but has been susceptible to giving up big plays. I don’t know if he shadows Thielen or Jefferson, or if he covers both. But I think this Sunday Night game may have some fireworks.
The Vikings’ passing offense went kinda quiet when Dalvin Cook went down in Week 3 and Mattison and Cook swapped games there. Thielen seemed to take the biggest hit with only one game above 10 points in that span. But with Cook fully healthy and the Vikings offense back on track, Thielen brought in another touchdown and hit the century mark in Week 6. Jefferson has received more targets in 4/6 games, but Thielen is the more efficient end zone WR with Jefferson scoring 3 times and Thielen with 5.
The Cowboys are averaging over 200 yards and a gaudy 15 yards per catch to opposing wide receivers this year. I like both Justin and Thielen to have big games, but Thielen should be ranked higher than 20th.
Jerry Jeudy, DEN vs WSH (Consensus Rank: WR38, My Rank: WR17)
Jerry Jeudy should be returning to action this week against the piss poor Washington defense. He was activated off of IR last week and probably would have played if not for a Thursday night game. With another week of practice under his belt, I like his chances to come out quick and make an impact in his first game back.
In Week One, prior to his injury, Jerry received 6 catches (7 targets) and 72 yards. He only ended up with 47% of the snaps with that stat line. Teddy B seemed to have a connection with him and the reports out of training camp said just the same. Jerry could be due for a sophomore breakout campaign the rest of the way if he stays healthy.
There are other mouths to feed in Denver with both running backs, Noah Fant, and Courtland Sutton. But just like 2020 in Carolina, Teddy clearly favorited Robby Anderson (Jerry Jeudy) even though DJ Moore (Courtland Sutton) was more than capable of turning the game on its head with one play.
Logan Thomas, WSH @ DEN (Consensus Rank: Unranked, My Rank: TE8)
Logan Thomas may not play so keep that in mind. If he doesn’t, I have some tight-end fliers in the cute pass-catchers part of your program.
Denver is actually quite good this year at defending the tight-end position. Part of that is due to the fact that none of them have scored against them. Is that luck, or them being good at defending it? Their linebackers have been decimated by injury this year and are starting, fellow East Lake Eagle alum, Justin Strnad & Co. Is Justin Simmons or Kareem Jackson shutting down the position? They have played Mark Andrews (5 for 67) and Darren Waller (5 for 59) this year. Those stat lines aren’t game-shattering.
In the three games Logan Thomas has played, he has 12, 9.7, and 11.2 points. Touchdowns are a big part of that with two so far this year, but that is part of his and Heinicke’s game. He likes to throw to TEs in the red zone. Logan Thomas likes to score them. Just keep an eye on his status this week because if he plays I can’t imagine you have a better option.
Cute Pass Catchers (Others Receiving Votes):
Jarvis Landry looks like he will be playing this week after picking up more bruises in his return game against the Broncos last week. He only played 54% of the snaps but he was targeted 8 times when he was in there, which is good news if Keenum ends up getting the start. If not, the pass catchers for the Browns have been hard to predict with Baker in the lineup. But a dependable option in Landry, in what will be a rough ’em up game against the Steelers, could be crucial.
Stop me if you’ve heard this one before. Evan Engram has a chance to break out this week. I reserve the right to change this call if any of Toney, Shephard, or Saquon play in this game. I don’t care if the Chiefs are giving up the most receiving yards to the tight end or not. I refuse to be in this camp without stipulations. Yeah, I did just go all diva on you. Deal with it.
Maybe you have Darren Waller or Mark Andrews. And maybe you didn’t have a backup tight end because why would you ever bench Andrews or Waller? Maybe you just looked at the waiver wire this week and realized you had to choose between Dan Arnold and Mo Allie-Cox. Well if you are now triggered then you have either read every word of these columns expecting good content for some reason, or I just described you. In either scenario, Tommy Sweeney may be the super deep flier you need at the tight end position. Buffalo’s backup to Dawson Knox has two great things going for him this week. He is playing against Miami, and Josh Allen is his QB. That is a recipe for success. I apologize for placing Kyle Pitts on the Not list last week going against Miami. I am a sad and biased fan. Also, did I mention sad? Eric Rowe is our TE-eraser but we forgot… to refill… the eraser??? I feel like there is a mechanical pencil joke in there somewhere. Eric Rowe is bad. How about that? Sweeney is a big-time dart throw but I think Buffalo is going to drop 40 on us so.
Remember that stuff I said about Dan Arnold. I didn’t mean it! I swear! Two first names! It’s great, I love you! You’re so much better than someone named Mo Allie-Cox. Well I mean he does have Cox in his name… kinda like having 69 in your gamertag. What were we talking about? Oh yeah, Dan Arnold has 8 and 5 targets in his two games since joining the Jaguars on a midseason (not counting the short-week Bengals game) trade. With a bye week to get up to speed with Trevor, I think Dan has some value going forward as a TE2/bye week fill-in.
NOT: PASS CATCHERS
Embed from Getty ImagesJa’Marr Chase, CIN @ NYJ (Consensus Rank: WR3, My Rank: WR9)
It seems like Chase has this thing where he breaks a 50-yard touchdown every other week. So that means this week is a down week. #analysis
I love Ja’Marr Chase. He is super talented and obviously was going to do well with Joe Burrow. I just don’t think anyone expected this type of production in year 1. His floor is insanely high for a rookie with his lowest outings all being at 13 points. He has six touchdowns through sevens weeks and is averaging an absurd 21 yards per catch. That is where I get tripped up a little bit though. Yes, some players are just that good and I think Ja’Marr is… but these long touchdowns are beginning to look fluky. It reminds me of the year where Derrick Henry had like six 50+ yard touchdown runs. This type of production is unsustainable.
The targets are there and the catches too. I just think we shouldn’t expect these long touchdowns too often. Especially in a game against the Jets that the Bengals should be comfortably winning in and have shown that they will take out their starters in a bloodbath (ex: Detroit game).
Michael Pittman Jr, IND vs TEN (Consensus Rank: WR21, My Rank: WR33)
I have Wentz on the Hot list so you would assume I’d like Pittman as well. I love him as a player, but his targets are concerning. In his last two games, he has 7 targets combined. Wentz didn’t reach 30 pass attempts in either game but they didn’t need to. They finally got Jonathan Taylor working.
Pittman has an excellent matchup and good chemistry with Wentz. But I worry that this game may be decided on the running backs and playing good defense. Wentz will take a few shots to Pittman, there is no doubt in my mind. But in what Vegas expects will be a close game, I wonder if Reich takes the deep ball out of the playbook to make sure Wentz continues to not make mistakes. That will affect Pittman the most.
TY Hilton returned in Week 6 but was absent in Week 7 due to a calf injury. His status is up in the air for Week 8, but if he plays I think he will be more involved than Pittman in terms of targets.
Hunter Henry, NE @ LAC (Consensus Rank: TE8, My Rank: TE18)
Another Patriot mentioned in my Najee Harris blurb. Touchdowns in 3 consecutive games. Well… Henry actually has it in 4. Touchdowns are super fluky for tight ends because most of their scores come from inside the red zone. The Patriots have been able to move the ball and score against the Texans, Cowboys, and Jets. However, the Chargers are 2nd toughest against the QB and I worry that Mac may struggle to move the ball into the red area.
This is actually a great matchup too. The Chargers are giving up the most points to tight ends this year. But I fear that lends more to Jonnu Smith and not Hunter Henry. Hunter has more targets but it seems like Mac has almost favored them by availability. Jonnu started off the year with a good amount of snaps then Hunter began to turn those numbers in his favor. This is when his touchdown streak started. Prior to Jonnu’s injury last week, Jonnu was beginning to out-snap or at least get the same amount of snaps as Hunter. In games in which Jonnu had more snaps, he has out-targeted Hunter.
As always, thank you for taking the time to not only click on my article but read a few words and hopefully learn something or share a laugh. Yeesh… I sound like I’m 80.
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