The 10 Things You Need to Know for Week 6
1. George Pickens is emerging as the second option for the Steelers
It’s been a slow start for the Pittsburgh Steelers’ offense in their first year without Ben Roethlisberger. They’re yet to exceed 23 points in a game and have lost four straight since winning their week 1 matchup against the Bengals. Although the start to the season isn’t ideal, the benching of Mitch Trubisky might have unlocked another young weapon for the already youthful Steelers offense.
Over the last two games, rookie George Pickens has been the most productive wideout for Pittsburgh. In that span, Pickens trails Diontae Johnson in targets (17-16) but is 1st on the team in receptions (12), yards (185), ADOT (15.2), and air yards (243). He is still the second option behind Diontae Johnson, but with fellow rookie Kenny Pickett running the offense, he has clearly surpassed Chase Claypool on the depth chart.
Johnson and Pickens should be great fantasy options moving forward, with Johnson being a safer WR1-WR2 floor play and Pickens being a fringe WR3/flex play with a bit more volatility. The main comparison that comes to mind is Chargers WRs Keenan Allen and Mike Williams.
Embed from Getty Images2. The gap between Tee Higgins and Jamarr Chase is narrowing
According to ADP (average draft position) coming into the season, there’s a substantial gap between where Jamarr Chase and teammate Tee Higgins were being drafted. According to FantasyPros ADP, Chase was a consensus 1st round pick going 9th overall and the WR3 overall, while Higgins was going 34th overall and the 13th WR off the board. I have Higgins ranked much higher than his ADP and here’s why.
Before week 5 of the 2022 season, they ran 591 routes simultaneously. Tee Higgins leads Jamarr Chase in targets (136-116), catches (92-71), yards (1,378 – 1,215), and PPR points (277.8-243.1). Touchdowns still favor Chase, but there is probable cause to believe regression is coming in that category for Chase. These stats were provided by Jacob Gibbs of Sportsline and CBS.
Chase has already shown the propensity to be more of a boom or bust option in comparison to Higgins, as he has never tallied 20 PPR points in back-to-back weeks in his career. As the 3rd receiver overall, you’d like to see more consistency. Given their costs, I’d prefer Higgins at a discount in the 3rd round and get similar production as Chase, who was going 9th overall on average. This is something to monitor and act on moving forward.
3. Geno Smith is legit
One of the bigger surprises early in the 2022 season is the Seattle Seahawks offense. There was a QB battle in the preseason between Drew Lock and Geno Smith, with Smith winning the job. This was the perfect choice for Seattle. Geno Smith is playing like a top-10 quarterback and the numbers back it up.
Geno ranks 12th in passing yards (1,305) which is impressive given the Seahawks are a run-first offense. He ranks 7th in touchdowns while his rate stats are phenomenal as well, ranking 1st in the league in rating (113.1) and 4th in QBR (74.8). Being a veteran in the league, Smith is also showing maturity and accuracy that Lock lacks, as he leads the league in On Target % and Bad Throw %.
The offensive line has also improved leaving a clean pocket for Smith and massive running lanes for both Rashaad Penny and Ken Walker III, who both average over 6 yards per carry. Combining these improvements with one of the more underrated WR duos in Tyler Lockett and DK Metcalf set the Seahawks in a good position to win more games than expected coming into the year. If you have Stafford or Russell Wilson, I would try and trade for Geno Smith.
Embed from Getty Images4. Drop Allen Robinson
When you think of disappointments this early in the season, Allen Robinson tops the list. He was being drafted on average as the 24th WR thus making him a fringe WR2. He has rewarded those who were banking on a bounceback by ranking as the 76th WR in PPR scoring. Ouch. I was not very high on Robinson coming in, but I did put a lot of blame on his subpar 2021 on Matt Nagy and expect him to improve. Maybe it’s not a Nagy problem, because he is just as bad with a much-improved coaching staff.
Robinson has fallen to 4th as far as pass-catching options on the Rams’ offense behind Ben Skowronek. Through 5 games, Robinson has only managed 12 catches on 23 targets for only 107 yards. Given the fact that he’s buried on a struggling offense, you can do much better with guys on the waiver wire than what Robinson is giving you week after week. Drop him now, but monitor him moving forward in case he turns it around.
5. David Njoku is a must-start tight end moving forward
The connection between David Njoku and QB Jacoby Brissett got off to a slow start, which was somewhat expected. Through weeks 1 and 2 Njoku was only able to muster 4 receptions on 6 targets, for 39 yards. Through weeks 3 and 5 however, Njoku ranks 1st on the team in snaps, receptions, and yards. In that span, he has 20 receptions on 23 targets, for 250 yards and a touchdown.
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He is arguably the top option for a run-heavy Browns team moving forward and given the bleak landscape at tight end, Njoku could be an oasis on your fantasy team. He is also the main red zone threat in the passing game as well, as he leads the Browns in target share and targets per route ran in the red zone. David Njoku is a must-start TE moving forward, and you should go trade for him if you’re struggling at the position.
6. Rondale Moore is back from injury and in a new role
In his rookie campaign, Rondale Moore was mainly used as an extension to the run game. He had an abysmal ADOT of 1.7 yards, which shows that he mainly caught passes at or around the line of scrimmage. Even given the lack of deeper targets, he still managed to put together a respectable 435 yards in this role, showing that he has the ability to provide YAC (yards after catch).
Christian Kirk was traded to the Jaguars in the offseason leaving a void for a slot receiver with big play ability. Through his first two games from injury, Moore seems to have already stepped into that role gaining 79 yards on 10 catches. His ADOT is still below 5, but it is still a vast improvement from last year and should keep creeping up as the season and his health progress.
Even when DeAndre Hopkins returns from suspension, there should still be plenty of opportunities for Moore to shine in this offense as a slot option. I wouldn’t worry too much about losing playing time, as Kirk was still fantasy relevant with AJ Green and Hopkins healthy and on the field last season. He’s a great addition if available as bye weeks approach.
Embed from Getty Images7. Stash Jameson Williams
If you have a roster spot to spare, go add Lions rookie WR Jameson Williams right now. He is walking in to one of the best offenses for WR fantasy production. The Lions’ offense ranks 3rd in total yards per game, 3rd in points scored, and 6th in passing yards. You pair this with having one of the worst defenses in the league, and you have the perfect formula for fantasy points from WRs.
Amon-Ra St. Brown has firmly cemented himself as the WR1 in the offense, but whoever is in the WR2 role can still have massive fantasy upside, especially given Williams’ elite speed and ability to stretch defenses. Josh Reynolds in a similar role in two games was able to muster 13 receptions on 17 targets, for 173 yards and a touchdown.
Williams is a much better player than Reynolds, with all due respect, and should be fantasy relevant immediately as soon as he touches the field. With bye weeks approaching, it is more important than ever to stay a week or two ahead of your competition.
8. The Patriots didn’t skip a beat with rookie Bailey Zappe at QB
Bailey Zappe started his NFL career as a third-string QB on the Patriots’ depth chart. Two injuries in two weeks to starter Mac Jones and backup Brian Hoyer have boosted him into a starting role. Through two games he has taken the role and ran with it.
In that span, he is completing 75% of his passes and is showing the ability to take care of the football, which a lot of rookies struggle with. The one interception he is responsible for was a dropped pass by Nelson Agholor that fell right into the defender’s hands. One other thing I noticed was in week 5, the Patriots didn’t punt until there were 10 minutes remaining in the 4th quarter.
Mac Jones will return as the starter when he’s healthy, but Zappe’s solid play might urge them to ease him back as opposed to rushing Jones back before he’s fully healthy. This is a situation to monitor.
Embed from Getty Images9. Ken Walker III is an immediate RB2 with potential RB1 upside
Right as Rashaad Penny and the Seahawks’ run game was gaining momentum, Penny endured a season-ending injury. Before the injury, Penny was ultra-efficient rushing for 6.1 YPC (yards per carry) and 2 touchdowns through 4 games. Most teams would be in a world of trouble after losing their starting RB, but the Seahawks will not be one of those teams.
It’s time for rookie Ken Walker III to show why the Seahawks drafted him in the 2nd round and to repay fantasy managers who drafted him above Rashaad Penny in drafts. He already showed the ability to make big plays last week, as he took 8 carries for 88 yards, including a 69-yard touchdown run to give his team a lead.
Hopefully, Walker will carve out a bigger role in the passing game than Penny was able to, which would only boost his fantasy stock even higher. I doubt he is available in many leagues but if he is, or if you can trade for him, you should immediately.
10. Don’t be fooled – Gabe Davis is still a boom-or-bust WR3
If you follow me on Twitter or have heard me on podcasts, you’ll know I’m not a huge fan of Gabe Davis as a fantasy asset. That being said, everything I have said is backed up by numbers. There is also still plenty of room to grow as a player since he is still young.
In his early career, Gabe Davis has never shown to have the ability to be a consistent WR2 or even WR3. He has never caught more than 5 passes in a game in his career and has also never surpassed 600 yards in a season. His route running is limited as well. In 2021, he ranked in the 33rd percentile against man, 27th percentile against zone, and 36th percentile against press, per ReceptionPerception.
He does have big play ability and has strong hands, but limited his routes to deep routes and curls with limited ability to separate make him an extremely volatile player. Yes, he is on a top-3 offense in the league, but he is yet to show the ability to be targeted at the rate needed to be a top-24 WR in the league, which is where he was being drafted on average.
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