NFL 2022 Week 17 The Better Than A “Start/Sit Article” Start/Sit Article
NFL 2022 Week 17 Better Than a Start Sit Article Start Sit Article
Week 17 is better than the fantasy football semi; it is the fantasy football playoffs! Congratulations if you made it. There were some major unexpected disappointing performances you preserved, congratulations.
Let’s see what this final Week 17 holds for you. It is going to be exciting.
We know that Tua Tagovailoa is out (or should be), Jalen Hurts is most likely out, Derek Carr is out, and Nathaniel Hackett is gone.
So here are the best and worst matchups for Week 17 by position. Good luck in your championship game; remember you made it this far. Do your research and trust your instincts. They can’t be that bad, right?
Quarterbacks
Best Matchup
Justin Fields @ Detroit Lions, 52 o/u, Lions-6
The Lions are giving up an average of 23 fantasy points, 25 DraftKings points, and 23.6 FanDuel points to the quarterback position.
The Lions have allowed 24 passing touchdowns, but what is most important for this matchup, they have allowed an average of 6.41 rushing yards per attempt to the position and seven rushing touchdowns.
Fields isn’t going to WOW you with his passing prowess, although he has passed for over 100 yards in his last two games. But he will amaze you with his passing and his rushing ability.
Fields are averaging 6.7 yards per attempt, 72.2 yards per game, with eight rushing touchdowns.
Should Be The Next Best Thing
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Mac Jones v Miami Dolphins, 41.5 o/u, Patriots -3
The Dolphins are giving up an average of 20.7 fantasy points, 22.9 DraftKings points, and 21.3 FanDuel points to the quarterback position. The Dolphins’ defense has surrendered 25 passing touchdowns to eight interceptions to the position.
That’s the good news. The bad news is that Matt Patricia is still the “offensive coordinator.” Their last meeting equaled seven total points for the Patriots against the Dolphins.
Jones was 21-of-30 for 213 passing yards, one touchdown, and one interception.
Play Him
Dax Prescott v Tennessee Titans, 39.5 o/u, Cowboys -12
The line for this game keeps moving in favor of the Cowboys. The Titans have nothing to play for this weekend. All their playoff hopes hang on their Week 18.
The Titans (when they had skin in the game) were giving up the third most fantasy points per game (19.9) to the quarterback position. They have allowed 26 passing touchdowns, and although the implied total for this game is painfully low, just look at it as probably 30 of those points will come from the Cowboys’ side (not even kidding).
Long Shot
Russell Wilson @ Kansas City Chiefs, 45 o/u, Chiefs -12.5
Do you believe in the “bounce back” narrative, that little extra “oomph” a team gets after its coach is fired? Which would be all good, except we have seen Wilson play, and it wasn’t Hackett out there chucking those lame throws and holding the ball way too long.
The Chiefs are giving up the fourth most fantasy points per game (19.6), the fifth-most DraftKings points per game (21.4), and the fourth-most FanDuel points per game (20.3) to the quarterback position.
For a little bit of optimism in a dreary world, the last meeting between the Chiefs and Wilson was one of Wilson’s best games (it’s a low bar). Wilson finished the game with 247 passing yards, three touchdowns, and one interception. That’s something.
Really Bad Matchup, Statistically Speaking
Carson Wentz v Cleveland Browns, 40.5 o/u, Washington -2
The Browns’ stats may be slightly skewed in that their last two quarterbacks were Andy Dalton and Tyler Huntley, who combined for 240 passing yards (Dalton 92, Huntley 138) with zero touchdowns and two interceptions (one each).
But for the season, they are holding quarterbacks to an average of 13.6 fantasy points per game, 14.8 DraftKings points per game, and 14.1 FanDuel points per game.
For the brief glimpse of sunshine, Washington still has playoff hopes the Browns do not.
Trevor Lawrence @ Houston Texans, 43.5 o/u, Jaguars -4.5
The Texans are statistically good against quarterbacks, and the Jaguars are looking toward Week 18.
Jarrett Stidham v San Francisco 49ers, 41.5 o/u, Niners -10
This was supposed to be a Derek Carr warning, but now it’s just a reminder you might want to play the Niners’ defense.
Running Back
Best Matchup
Travis Etienne @ Houston Texans, 43.5 o/u, Jaguars -4.5
You have to wonder how much the Jaguars starters will play this game.
That being said, the Texans are giving up, on average, the most fantasy points (25.5), DraftKings points (31.3), and FanDuel points (27.7) per game to the running back position.
Last week Derrick Henry averaged 5.5 rushing yards per attempt, with 126 total rushing yards and one touchdown against them. In week 15, Isiah Pacheco averaged 5.7 rushing yards for 86 total, while Jerick McKinnon averaged 5.2 and added a rushing touchdown.
As the kids say, it should be a “smash spot.”
Should Be the Next Best Thing
Zonovan Knight @ Seattle Seahawks, 42.5 o/u, Jets -1.5
The Seahawks have given up the fifth-most rushing touchdowns (14) to the running back position. They have also yielded the second-most fantasy points per game (23.5), DraftKings points per game (30.6), and FanDuel points per game (26.4) to the running back position.
The good news is that Mike White is back under center.
Knight was abysmally bad last week, but there were extenuating circumstances.
Play Him
Brian Robinson v Cleveland Browns, 40.5 o/u, Washington -2
Week 16 v Alvin Kamara: 76 rushing yards, one touchdown
Week 15 v JK Dobbins: 125 rushing yards
Week 14 v Joe Mixon: 96 rushing yards ( did give up a rushing touchdown to Samaje Perine)
Robinson was on the field for 44% of the offensive snaps in Week 16 versus 29% for Antonio Gibson. In week 16 against the San Francisco 49ers, Robinson had 22 rush attempts to Gibson’s five (although Gibson had three targets to Robinson’s one).
It is also good news the Browns are giving up the third-most fantasy points on average to the running back position (22.2), DraftKings fantasy points (27.8), and FanDuel fantasy points (24.6).
The disappointing news is that Robinson only averaged 2.6 yards per attempt last week. But the Browns aren’t the 49ers.
Long Shot
D’Andre Swift v Chicago Bears, 52 o/u, Lions -6
If only we knew what was up in Detroit with the running back situation. Last week Jared Goff had more rushing yards than Swift, 15-to-12. Swift averaged 3.0 yards per carry and only had four rushing attempts.
It was bad.
Now in what should be a smash spot where da Bears are giving up the fourth-most fantasy points per game (22), DraftKings fantasy points per game (27.4), and FanDuel points per game (24.2) to the running back position, Swift is out of the trust circle.
Keep an eye on the status of Jamaal Williams. If he is out, Swift has a toe in the trust circle.
Really Bad Matchups, Statistically Speaking
Josh Jacobs v San Francisco 49ers, 41.5 o/u, 49ers -10
The 49ers are allowing the fewest fantasy points to the running back position (10.7), DraftKings fantasy points (16.6), and FanDuel fantasy points (13.5).
Jacobs isn’t thrilled about the Raiders’ offense, and Jarret Stidham is the quarterback.
Raheem Mostert @ New England Patriots, 41.5 o/u, Patriots -3
The Patriots give the second-fewest fantasy points to the running back position (13.3). This includes DraftKings fantasy points (18.5) and FanDuel fantasy points (16).
In their last meeting, Week 1, Mostert had five rushing attempts for 16 yards.
Derrick Henry v Dallas Cowboys, 39.5 o/u, Cowboys -12.5
This was supposed to be a Derrick Henry warning, but ESPN reports he isn’t playing this week, so there you go.
Wide Receivers
Best Matchup
Michael Gallup @ Tennessee Titans, 39.5 o/u, Cowboys -12.5
If you haven’t read Razzball’s Slot v Wide weekly article, you need to get on that. And according to Slot v Wide, the Titans have given up the second most fantasy points to the wide receiver over the past six weeks. (the Cowboys have given up the most… but come on).
The Titans are averaging 42.2 fantasy points per game, with 28.5 points going to the wide and 13.4 to the slot.
Should Be The Next Best Thing
Isaiah Hodgins v Indianapolis Colts, 38.5 o/u, Giants -6
Last week Hodgins led the Giants in receiving touchdowns (1), was second in targets (11), and second in receiving yards (89). In Week 15, he was second in targets (4), tied for first in receptions (4), and was second in receiving yards (37).
{Richie James was first in targets and receiving yards both weeks}
I am going Hodgins over James because James spends 74.3% of his time in the slot, and Hodgins only 9.9%.
The Colts are giving up 67% of their fantasy points to the wide and only 33% to the slot. But seriously, it’s the Colts where Keenan Allen had 104 receiving yards last week, and KJ Osborn scored them for 157 and a touchdown in Week 15.
Play Him
Greg Dortch @ Atlanta Falcons, 42 o/u, Falcons -3.5
Talking to both fantasy managers and Kliff Kingsbury, PLAY HIM! The Falcons are surrendering the sixth-most fantasy points to the wide receiver position (23.2), DraftKings fantasy points (36.5), and FanDuel fantasy points (29.1).
Even if it is Trace McSorley (or hopefully it is), Dortch is the man. Last week McSorley targeted Dortch, a team, 11 times. Dortch finished with ten receptions and 98 yards.
Dortch didn’t play against Denver or New England, but against San Francisco, he also had double-digit targets (10) and finished with 103 yards.
If he is playing, you play him.
Long Shot
Alan Lazard v Minnesota Vikings, 48.5 o/u, Packers-3
This is only a long shot because of the uncertainty of Christian Watson’s status (Watson did not practice Wednesday due to his hip injury). There is also Romeo Doubs lurking around.
Otherwise, the Vikings are giving up the third-most fantasy points (26) to the wide receiver position, a whopping 42.6 DraftKings fantasy points, and 33.7 FanDuel fantasy points to the position.
I like Lazard, Aaron Rodgers likes Lazard, and you should like Lazard.
Really Bad Matchups, Statistically Speaking
JuJu Smith-Schuster v Denver Broncos, 45 o/u, Chiefs -12.5
Travis Kelce is the main target in this offense. Other than that, Patrick Mahomes tosses the ball around quite liberally.
The Broncos got torched by Baker Mayfield and the Rams last week, but the leading receiver was a tight end, Tyler Higbee, with 11 targets, nine receptions, 94 receiving yards, and two touchdowns.
DK Metcalf v New York Jets, 42.5 o/u, Jets -1.5
Two words sum this up, Sauce Gardner. Well, that and a queasy feeling regarding quarterback Geno Smith.
“It’s a new dawn. It’s a new day. It’s a new life for me. And I’m feeling good.” ~ Nina Simone
“Every year, you make a resolution to change yourself. This year, make a resolution to be yourself.” ~ Unknown
Happy New Year, it has been a pleasure and an honor.
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