Ultimate Fantasy Rookie Performances to Follow 22-23 Season
I tried to come up with a fun, clever introduction for three days and came up blank. This was more of a beast to create than I anticipated. I hope you enjoy it.
Kicker
We’ll start with the most exciting position. Kickers were a two man rookie race this year. Cade York started for the Cleveland Browns opening day (and broke my heart) and Cameron Dicker bounced around a bit before settling in Los Angeles to play for the Chargers.
Cade York wins but only because Dicker didn’t play for a large part of the season. Comparing Dicker to the other kickers (using ESPN), he would have been the 11th best in the league based on his average.
| Points Per Game | Total | |
| Cade York | 6.8 | 106 |
| Cameron Dicker | 8.5 | 93 |
Tight End
ANOTHER EXCITING RACE. This time there are FOUR WHOLE CONTENDERS that I paid attention to this year. Tight End was a relatively down year overall (unless you had Travis Kelce), but here are the stats anyway.
| Points Per Game | Total | |
| Isaiah Likely | 7.2 | 101.2 |
| Cade Otton | 5.7 | 97.1 |
| Daniel Bellinger | 6.9 | 75.9 |
| Jelani Woods | 5 | 74.7 |
The rookies in this position group were largely unusable this season UNLESS Mark Andrews was hurt. Then, Likely put up some big numbers. Next year, any one of these 4 have potential though. Historically, it takes a year for them to learn the position in an NFL setting anyway.
Quarterback
I’m getting all the (cough cough) most exciting rookie groups out of the way first this year and that trend continues at quarterback!
| Points Per Game | Total | |
| Kenny Pickett | 11.5 | 149.16 |
| Brock Purdy | 17.6 | 106.26 |
| Bailey Zappe | 9.72 | 38.88 |
| Malik Willis | 2.8 | 19.4 |
| Skylar Thompson | 2.5 | 17.46 |
Kenny Pickett was the only quarterback taken in the first round this year, and for good reason. As predicted, it was a real stinker of a position group. Pickett collected the most fantasy points this season, but Brock Purdy is obviously the better player. Purdy put up 71% of the points of Pickett in literally half the number of games. The 49ers are going to have a hard time picking their starter next season. If I had to draft one of these guys for fantasy next year it would be Purdy (if he has a starting job somewhere of course). However, Kenny Pickett wins by default.
Running Back
Finally, a position with some actual fantasy relevance!
| Points Per Game | Total | Positional Rank | |
| Kenneth Walker III | 12.9 | 206.7 | 18 |
| Dameon Pierce | 12.8 | 166.1 | 27 |
| Tyler Allgeier | 10 | 159.6 | 29 |
| Isiah Pacheco | 8.3 | 140.8 | 37 |
| Breece Hall | 16.5 | 115.6 | 42* |
| Brian Robinson | 9.4 | 113.2 | 43 |
| Zonovan Knight | 8.4 | 59 | 67 |
It seemed like any time somebody started getting momentum as a running back they got hurt and then missed time. Breece Hall was easily the MVP of this group, and among rookies, before tearing his ACL week 7. Rumor is he’ll be back by training camp. Dameon Pierce and Kenneth Walker III were both solid fantasy options (until Pierce also got hurt from carrying the whole Texans offense on his back). Tyler Allgeier started putting it together at the end of the season when he got the majority of carries for the run heavy Atlanta Falcons.
*Breece Hall had the 8th highest PPG for running backs. If he hadn’t broken, he would have had 280.5 points based on his average.
Embed from Getty ImagesWide Receiver
The strongest fantasy group of the 2022 NFL draft was the wide receiver and it wasn’t even close.
Garrett Wilson crushed all season and it wasn’t even close. If he had a competent quarterback under center all year, he would have ranked even higher versus his veteran peers. Olave was also a solid option, but missing one game to concussion gave Wilson the edge in this category. London, Dotson, Watson and Pickens are all intriguing players going into their sophomore season as well.
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| Points Per Game | Total | Positional Rank | |
| Garrett Wilson | 12.7 | 216.2 | 21 |
| Chris Olave | 13.1 | 209 | 24 |
| Drake London | 10.6 | 180 | 31 |
| George Pickens | 9.8 | 167 | 40 |
| Christian Watson | 11.7 | 164.1 | 42 |
| Jahan Dotson | 11 | 131.6 | 51 |
| Alec Pierce | 6.6 | 112.3 | 63 |
| Treylon Burks | 8 | 103.6 | 78 |
| Romeo Doubs | 7.8 | 101.6 | 72* |
| Tyquan Thornton | 5.2 | 67.8 | 98 |
| Skyy Moore | 2.8 | 44 | 123 |
Final Rankings
I feel conflicted about ranking these players with so many good people missing time due to injury. A lot of players had higher averages per game but didn’t get a chance to show their skills for the full 17 game season. In the end, the best ability of any player is availability, so I chose to do rankings based on total points. For full transparency, I’ll also put my initial ranking at the beginning of the season to see how bad my predictions were in my first year. Without further ado, here are the 2022-2023 full season rookie rankings based on total fantasy points. Any empty cells on the chart indicate data that I don’t readily have available but most likely they were undrafted or unranked. This is a lot of information in chart form so buckle up.
| Points Per Game | Total | Rookie Rank | Average Draft Position | My preseason rank | |
| Skylar Thompson | 2.5 | 17.46 | 31 | ||
| Malik Willis | 2.8 | 19.4 | 30 | ||
| Bailey Zappe | 9.72 | 36.88 | 29 | ||
| Skyy Moore | 2.8 | 44 | 28 | 138.3* | |
| Zonovan Knight | 8.4 | 59 | 27 | ||
| Tyquan Thornton | 5.2 | 67.8 | 26 | ||
| Jelani Woods | 5 | 74.7 | 25 | ||
| Daniel Bellinger | 6.9 | 75.9 | 24 | ||
| Cameron Dicker | 8.5 | 93 | 23 | ||
| Cade Otton | 5.7 | 97.1 | 22 | ||
| Isaiah Likely | 7.2 | 101.2 | 21 | ||
| Romeo Doubs | 7.8 | 101.6 | 20 | 168 | 5 |
| Treylon Burks | 8 | 103.6 | 19 | 142.8 | 9 |
| Cade York | 6.8 | 106 | 18 | ||
| James Cook | 6.6 | 106.2 | 17 | 122.1 | |
| Brock Purdy | 17.6 | 106.26 | 16 | ||
| Alec Pierce | 6.6 | 112.3 | 15 | ||
| Brian Robinson | 9.4 | 113.2 | 14 | 149.9 | |
| Breece Hall | 16.5 | 115.6 | 13 | 50.9 | 8 |
| Jahan Dotson | 11 | 131.6 | 12 | 149.1 | 6 |
| Isiah Pacheco | 8.3 | 140.8 | 11 | 167.9 | |
| Rachaad White | 8.4 | 142.1 | 10 | 169.9 | |
| Kenny Pickett | 11.5 | 149.16 | 9 | ||
| Tyler Allgeier | 10 | 159.6 | 8 | 167.9 | |
| Christian Watson | 11.7 | 164.1 | 7 | 169.7 | 10 |
| Dameon Pierce | 12.8 | 166.1 | 6 | 102.7 | 3 |
| George Pickens | 9.8 | 167 | 5 | 148.2 | 1 |
| Drake London | 10.6 | 180 | 4 | 98.9 | 4 |
| Kenneth Walker III | 12.9 | 206.7 | 3 | 131 | |
| Chris Olave | 13.1 | 209 | 2 | 118 | 2 |
| Garrett Wilson | 12.7 | 216.2 | 1 | 122.5 | 7 |
The Winner is…
Embed from Getty ImagesZach Wilson tried his best to hold Garrett Wilson back but talent overcame… lack of talent? Chris Olave and Kenneth Walke both gave it a go but ultimately couldn’t catch up to Wilson. For the record, Breece Hall would have absolutely crushed everyone but knees are fickle things in the football world. Had he played all 17 games given his average score when he got injured, he would have had 280.5 points for a comfortable victory (I know I already referenced this. It needed to be repeated). Just sayin’.
Final thoughts
I actually did better than I thought in the rankings predictions. I will use this data and make slightly better predictions next year (maybe). Having an actual deep quarterback class will make this tricky though, since my experience with that position this year was lacking.
Thanks for reading. I appreciate every person who ever clicked, shared and/or read my articles. It’s been a lot of fun doing this and I hope I get the chance to continue next season. Enjoy watching the playoffs and I’ll see you here next year (hopefully maybe)!
Love,
@MeLlamoMoron
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