In the NFL offseason, dynasty managers glob onto their favorite prospects and have their fingers crossed for a strong combine and a dreamy landing spot. A strong combine can elevate a less-productive prospect, while a poor landing spot can leave a player tumbling down rookie drafts.
After the NFL draft is a smorgasbord of camps and it is anyone’s guess how the seven-second, slow-motion clips will be framed by the beat writers. Let’s look at a few notable camp videos/stories and see how the following season panned out.
Who remembers when Ja’Marr Chase had a case of the dropsies in camp after being selected fifth overall by the Bengals? Dynasty managers were wise to ignore this news and decline any incoming, low-ball offers for the dynasty cornerstone after dropping these numbers in his rookie season: 128 targets | 81 receptions | 1,455 yards | 13 TDs (PPR WR-5 overall in 2021).
While Chase did lead the league in drops in 2021 with eleven, it was only one more than fellow fantasy studs Deebo Samuel and Travis Kelce who had a comparable number of targets. So for those dynasty managers that were patient with their first-round rookie pick, Ja’Marr Chase, I echo a sentiment from the great Ron Swanson, “Bully for you.”
I have been on the Ashton Dulin hype trail for a while now and it’s hard not to love the blend of size and speed. Add to that the fact that Dulin is an undrafted receiver from Malone University (Go Pioneers), a college that no longer has a football program.
This hype, albeit not in his rookie season, came to a head when he was making catch after catch in camp prior to the 2022 season. Despite this spicy camp video, Dulin’s 2022 stat line shook out as: 22 targets | 15 receptions | 207 yards | 1 TD (PPR WR-122 overall in 2022). I for one am still hopeful that Dulin’s role grows, especially with my favorite dynasty quarterback of this rookie class, Anthony Richardson, now under center.
I will first start off by eating crow as I did not believe Pacheco’s strong camp would translate to 960 all-purpose yards and a respectable RB-37 finish for the 2022 late seventh-round pick. Isiah Pacheco was a divisive player amongst the fantasy community leading up to the 2022 season, given the uncertainty of the Chiefs‘ backfield and attachment to State-Farm-endorser Patrick Mahomes.
Late-round running backs are always an interesting investment in dynasty; however, NFL teams have shown differing opinions on how to value and build the position group. The Falcons and Lions each spent top-12 picks on running backs in this year’s draft, while other teams looked to the later rounds or free agency to address the position.
— The Fantasy's Phinest Podcast (@FantasysPhinest) July 18, 2022
There are were no shortage of believers in Jalen Tolbert heading into the 2022 season. Tolbert finished his collegiate career with back-to-back 1,000+ yard seasons for the South Alabama Jaguars. As noted in the tweet above, the stars were aligning for Tolbert to step into a prominent role with Amari Cooper traded and Michael Gallup and James Washington recovering.
Needless to say, not everything is bigger in Texas, as Tolbert was unable to surpass CeeDee Lamb’s supporting cast of Noah Brown and Michael Gallup. Tolbert’s stat line for 2022 looked like: 3 targets | 2 receptions | 12 yards | 0 TD (PPR WR-200 overall in 2022).
Takeaways
The crop of 2023 rookies is already receiving similar treatment, with Bryce Young hiding behind his o-line and Rashee Rice catching passes in slow-motion in gym shorts.
The rollercoaster of the NFL offseason has dynasty managers trying to keep track of the latest buys and sells. The players mentioned above are but a handful of examples that teach a worthwhile lesson in dynasty: trust your gut and accept the misses. Get your guys in dynasty and enjoy the 2023 fantasy season!
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