Breaking Down the Fantasy Relevance of the AFC East Offenses
We all know that the fantasy landscape changes from year to year. People come, and people go. But that shouldn’t stop us from doing our due diligence and trying to find that fantasy football gem that will win us all the monies.
This season the AFC East may just be the powerhouse division we saw from the NFC East. At least three teams make the playoffs, and the fourth is not that far behind. It’s a thing.
Two teams in the division will have new offensive coordinators. The New England Patriots are finally finished with the Matt Patricia experiment (every fantasy football fan in the universe thanks you, Bill Belichick). And the New York Jets have acquired the services of much-maligned partial season ex-head coach of the Denver Broncos, Nathaniel Hackett. And in the process did what the Broncos could not do and acquired the services of quarterback Aaron Rodgers to complete the duo. So, let’s see what fantasy implications any of this may or may not have.
Embed from Getty ImagesBuffalo Bills Offense and Ken Dorsey Offensive Coordinator
The 2023 season will be Dorsey’s second season as the offensive coordinator in Buffalo. And although the offense struggled in the playoffs against the Cincinnati Bengals, they finished as a top-11 offense in most statistical categories. The Bills’ offense was:
- 5th in passing yards per game, 261.4.
- 2nd in passing touchdowns per game, 2.1.
- 8th in rushing yards per game, 133.5.
- 11th in rushing touchdowns per game, 0.9
The Bills still felt the need to upgrade their offense. In the 2023 NFL Draft, four of their six picks were spent on the offensive side of the ball. Three free-agent acquisitions were spent on the offense. One on a running back and two on wide receivers. But will any of this move the needle on our fantasy fortunes?
Fantasy Relevance
The Bills are loaded with excellent fantasy options. There are the usual suspects and even a newcomer that might turn your head.
Quarterback-Josh Allen
Allen finished as QB2 in fantasy football land last year, and that was with regressing in a couple of stats from the previous year. His pass attempts were down 68 attempts from 2021. But his 645 attempts in 2021 were an outlier in that he had 573 last season and 572 in 2020.
His red zone carries went from 32 in 2021 to 26 in 2022. Those 26 carries were the third most by a quarterback, so no whining there.
His legitimate dual-threat ability keeps Allen as a top-five fantasy option. Last season Allen had the third most carries for a quarterback (126), the second most rushing yards (776), and the third most rushing touchdowns (7).
Allen also had a 63.2% completion percentage, averaging 7.5 yards per attempt. His 35 passing touchdowns were the third most, and his 4316 passing yards were the seventh most.
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The Bills added one tight end (later on that ) and two wide receivers (more on that later) to help the offense. And frankly, what helps the offense helps Allen helps our fantasy teams.
Wide Receiver-Stefon Diggs
Diggs finished the season as WR4 in PPR formats and WR5 in standard leagues. He was fifth in targets (155), 10th in target share (28.4%), and 41st in snap share 78.2%. Even with a “limited” snap share, Diggs’ 23 red zone targets were the fourth most, and his 11 total touchdowns were the second most.
Diggs had an equal win rate whether he played against man coverage (39.8%) or the zone (35.9%). It didn’t matter. It also helped that he had 443 yards after the catch, the 12th most.
Running Back-James Cook
Here is where it starts to get a little interesting. Cook finished the season as RB44. He had 525 yards on 91 rushing attempts. Cook also had 33 targets, 21 receptions, and two drops while adding 180 receiving yards.
The Bills only ran the ball on 40.56% of their offensive plays, 22nd in the league. Cook was on the field for 24.4% of the snap share.
The Bills didn’t draft a running back in the first round. They did pick up Damien Harris in free agency to replace losing Devin Singletary. Harris isn’t a threat to Cook’s numbers.
Harris’s specialty is as a short-yardage third-down back. Harris averaged 4.0 yards per carry on third downs. The issue with Harris is that he missed six games last season with a thigh injury. He hasn’t played a complete season in his career.
Tight End-Dalton Kincaid
You probably thought I would put Dawson Knox here since the Bills extended his contract. But they also moved up in the 2023 NFL Draft to get Kincaid.
Per Pro Football Focus, no team in the NFL used a 12-personnel less than the Bills last season. Eight percent of their total snaps were with 12-personnel. In 2022 the Bills’ tight ends were 29th ranked in receptions. They combined for 57 receptions.
Likely, the Bills will now run with 12-personnel more than eight percent this season. And Knox may start as the “the man.” But the Bills moved up to get Kincaid because of his “elite hands and separation ability at the top of the route.”
Miami Dolphins Offense and Frank Smith, Offensive Coordinator
Smith is the offensive coordinator, but head coach Mike McDaniel calls the offensive plays. The Dolphins finished last season with a prolific passing offense and an anemic run offense. The Dolphins were sixth in passing yards per game (261.1) and seventh in average passing touchdowns (1.7).
Their run offense featured Raheem Mostert, Jeff Wilson Jr., Chase Edmonds, and Salvon Ahmed. The four running backs accounted for nine total rushing touchdowns. No running back had more than 900 rushing yards for the season. And Mostert’s 16 games were the most any running back played.
Fantasy Relevance
The Dolphins have two legitimate fantasy football gems. If their quarterback can stay healthy, make that three.
Quarterback-Tua Tagovailoa
Tagovailoa finished the season as QB15. That was in 13 games. He had 400 passing attempts with a 64.8% completion percentage. His 8.9 yards per attempt was first in the NFL, and his 65.3% red zone completion percentage was second. That was on 49 red zone passing attempts (19th).
Tagovailoa only had 70 total rushing yards. He had only four red zone carries. Tagovailoa is not a dual-threat quarterback. The only worry is the concussions that he suffered last season.
Quarterback-Mike White
The Dolphins acquired White in free agency to back up Tagovailoa. Last year White played in four games. He finished the season as QB38.
Playing behind Zach Wilson, White had 175 passing attempts, 23 red zone attempts, and a 58.9% completion rate. White had three passing touchdowns and one rushing touchdown.
Wide Receiver-Tyreek Hill
Hill finished the season as WR2 in PPR and WR3 in standard fantasy leagues. Hill was on the receiving end of 170 targets with a 31.6% snap share and a 76.1% snap share.
Although Hill was targeted 11 times in the red zone, he only had seven receiving touchdowns. He did have two rushing touchdowns. And Hill had the fifth most yards after catch last season (495). Hill’s win rate against the zone (55.6%) was 11.3% higher than that against man (44.3%).
Wide Receiver-Jaylen Waddle
The Dolphins had two wide receivers in the top 10 for fantasy scoring. Waddle was WR8 in PPR and WR7 in standard fantasy leagues.
Waddle’s 116 targets were on a 21.6% target share and a 74.5% snap share. He had eight receiving touchdowns on eight red zone targets. And Waddle was 10th in yards after catch (462).
Waddle’s win rate versus man (40%) was 15.1% lower than his win rate against the zone (55.1%). Waddle also had 122 snaps out of the slot compared to Hill’s 220.
Running Backs
I don’t want to talk about the running backs. They weren’t very good. Raheem Mostert was the highest fantasy-scoring running back at, RB27 in standard and RB25 in PPR. Mostert had 891 yards on 181 carries.
De’Von Achane, Running Back, Round 3, Pick 21
Achane has legit speed. He ran a 4.32 in the 40-yard dash. Achane gives the Dolphins the fastest collection of skilled players in the NFL. The Dolphins running back room consists of the following:
- Mostert
- Jeff Wilson Jr.
- Myles Gaskin
- Salvon Ahmed
- Achane
- Christopher Brooks (UDFA)
- Alec Ingold
- John Lovett
It is a loaded running back room that only has realistically three men who are slightly late draft-worthy fantasy options, Mostert, Wilson, and Achane. But drafting in redraft, you know your priorities.
New York Jets Offense and Nathaniel Hackett Offensive Coordinator
The Jets have a new offensive coordinator. Hackett was removed after 15 games as the Denver Broncos head coach is now the offensive coordinator in New York. He replaces Mike LaFleur.
Last year’s Jets offense was bad. They were really bad in the red zone. The Jets were 31st in red zone touchdown rate (43.5%). Per Football Outsiders, they ranked 24th in red zone rushing DVOA (-6.9%). But more astonishingly, they ranked 32nd in red zone, passing DVOA at -42.1%. (This means they were 42.1% less efficient at throwing the ball in the red zone than the average NFL team).
Last season the Jets’ quarterbacks had a red zone touchdown pass rate of 14.9%. They score 10 touchdowns on 67 attempts. The quarterbacks also had a 9.3% red zone sack rate. They were sacked seven times in the red zone.
The Acquisitions
The Jets’ splash acquisitions this season were substance over style. However, there was a lot of style there too.
Hackett
While Hackett was in Green Bay (2019-2021), the Packers scored a touchdown on 121 of 180 red zone trips. That was fourth best in the league, with a rate of 67.2%.
Allen Lazard
Lazard was acquired in free agency. In the last two seasons, Lazard was tied for eighth with 12 red zone touchdown receptions for wide receivers.
Aaron Rodgers
Since 2020 Rodgers has ranked second in the league with touchdown passes in the red zone with 84. (Patrick Mahomes has 87). From 2020 to 2022, Rodger’s 64.7% red zone completion percentage is the second best. And his 21-to-1 touchdown to interception rate is almost twice as high as the league average of 10.7-to-1.
Compared to the Jets’ 9.3% red zone sack rate last season, Rodgers has a 2.8% red zone sack rate over the last three seasons. In the last three seasons, Rodgers has only been sacked eight times in the red zone. Last season the Jets’ quarterbacks were sacked seven times in the red zone.
Fantasy Relevance
Garrett Wilson
Last season Wilson was ninth among wide receivers with 19 red zone targets. Unfortunately, he only had three red zone touchdowns. If you believe that was more due to quarterback accuracy rather than Wilson’s performance, Wilson becomes fantasy relevant.
Even if you think it was due to Wilson’s performance, Rodgers raises the level of his wide receivers. So, Wilson is fantasy relevant.
Tyler Conklin
Rodgers has thrown 6.1 touchdowns to the tight end position in his career. Conklin had four red zone targets last season, which he converted to three red zone touchdowns. With that efficiency, Conklin becomes fantasy relevant in shallow tight end fantasy pool.
New England Patriots and Bill O’Brien Offensive Coordinator
Thankfully the Matt Patricia era in the Patriots offense is over (even if you aren’t a Patriots fan, just from the fantasy perspective, take a deep breath). Last season it was a step back for the offense in the stats that matter.
| Category | 2021 Stats | 2022 Stats |
| Red Zone Efficiency | 11th w/39TD in 63 attempts | 32nd w/19TD in 45 attempts |
| Touchdowns | 48 | 31 |
| First Downs | 9th w/362 | 28th w/288 |
| Third Down Efficiency | 10thh @ 43.5% | 27th @ 34.8% |
Quarterback Mac Jones’s regression was also evident. Jones had 79 fewer passing attempts (442) with a 2.4% less completion percentage (65.2%). He had eight fewer passing touchdowns, and his yards per attempt dipped .5 (6.8). Jones also played three fewer games than the prior year due to injury. But his regression was mainly the result of a faulty offensive scheme.
Fantasy Relevance
The Patriots allowed running back Damien Harris to go to the Buffalo Bills during free agency. That leaves Rhamondre Stevenson RB1 in New England.
Last season Stevenson finished as RB14 in standard and RB7 in PPR leagues. In his 210 rushing attempts, he averaged 5.0 yards per carry and finished with 38 red zone touches and 1040 rushing yards. Stevenson also added 89 targets and 69 receptions for 421 receiving yards. He finished the season with six total touchdowns.
The Patriots also allowed their top receiver Jakobi Meyers to depart to Las Vegas. Meyers finished WR33 in standard leagues and WR29 in PPR last season. The next best fantasy option for the Patriots in the wide receiver position is JuJu Smith-Schuster, who finished as WR27 in PPR last season. Of course, that was in Kansas City, and Smith-Schuster has yet to practice with Jones.
Besides Stevenson, when looking for fantasy relevance, look towards the two tight ends, Hunter Henry and newly acquired Mike Gesicki. Gesicki has been seen practicing with the wide receiver group. And according to Jeff Howe of The Athletic, “The most encouraging development has been Jones’ chemistry with Hunter Henry (completed 10 of 13 passes) and Mike Gesicki (9 of 10). Jones was connecting with his tight ends on a variety of routes at all three levels.”
O’Brien will improve the offense (low bar), but Stevenson and the tight ends will be your best fantasy options. The starting wide receivers will most likely be players from different systems. Second-year Tyquan Thornton is recovering from a broken collar bone. The sleeper option is sixth-round 2023 NFL Draft pick Kayshon Boutte.
Thanks to fantasypros.com, playerprofiler.com, and teamrankings.com for the stats.
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