NFL 2024 Last Call for Start/Sit Plays Week 1

It’s time to put up and shut up, you know the last call of the night when you have to make that decision on whether you are going to get that last drink and how much $$ you actually have left.

First, let’s stress always drink responsibly that means if you drink you don’t drive, and if you drink at a bar, you tip. If you can’t do either responsibly don’t go out.

And this is the same advice for your fantasy football week-in and week-out decisions. If you can’t play responsibly (like remembering this is a game and that players generally have a shit ton more on the line than you do) then don’t play. And if you can’t choose wisely, well that’s on you. I can give you advice on who to play but you are almost always going to go with the Top Shelf players, Patrick Mahomes, Josh Allen, Jalen Hurts, Justin Jefferson, Tyreek Hill, Christian McCaffrey, Bijan Robinson, and Taylor Swift’s boyfriend.

You are not here for that, you have come to sample the premium brands, maybe reluctantly taste the well brand but for god’s sake avoid the Mat drink (for those of you unfamiliar that is when your buddies come in late at night and ask the bartender to pour their mat into a glass for their “friend” to drink and yes, it is as disgusting as it sounds).

So, let’s check out the matchups and see who the premium choices are, the well, and the mat plays for Week 1.  And like your choice of beverages, these will change week-to-week depending on the matchups (or in your bar scenario the financial stability).

The Premium Play

The premium play this week is Washington Commanders tight end Zach Ertz. Just like that shot of Don Julio 1942 that you are going to order at last call, you are not going to do it every week as it is an expensive and acquired taste.

The expense of playing Ertz this week means you are not playing a tight end that you spent draft capital on, how much capital you spent will determine how costly the choice is. And you will most likely not be doing this regularly, a shot of Don Julio 1942 will run you around $50 a pop, playing Ertz on bad matchups or with the emergence of the rookie Ben Sinnott (who is currently listed as TE3 on the depth chart) can become costly to your fantasy team.

But this week you are relying on familiarity and experience.

5 Facts

1. Ertz was traded to Kliff Kingsbury’s Arizona Cardinals in the 2021 season, in that season on the Cardinals he was second in receptions, third in yards, and third in targets.
2. In the 2022 season where he ran routes 83.5%, he was in the slot for 232 snaps or at a 42.1% rate, was seventh for all tight ends in red zone targets (15), and finished averaging 11.6 fantasy points per game.
3. WR Keenan Allen has been limited with a heel injury and is reported day to day.
4. Last season the Buccaneers gave up to the tight end position:

Third most touchdowns (7)

Third most receptions (102)

Third most yards (1077)

• Ertz is listed as TE1 on the depth chart, you want to get in on Ertz early and often (especially if you believe an injury is inevitable for the 33-year-old 11-year veteran.

TIP: Never order 1942 with a mixer, if you are going to treat yourself order it neat or as a shot.

The Well Play

The well play is the one you don’t play straight up but feel reasonably comfortable adding a ‘mixer’ with it, your Jose Cuervo Especial Gold comes to mind, it makes a great margarita or Bloody Maria which brings us to the well play of the week Arizona Cardinals’ quarterback Kyler Murray.

Murray is capable of playing it solo, and his rushing capabilities give him a safe-ish floor, but you will be more comfortable if you could add Marvin Harrison Jr., Trey McBride, or my personal favorite Greg Dortch to the mix.

5 Facts

1. Pro Football Focus has deemed Murray-Harrison Jr., as the #1 QB-WR fantasy stack for 2024, with the potential to finish as top three.
2. In eight games last season Murray finished with 1,799 passing yards, 10 touchdowns, and five interceptions. He also had 244 rushing yards and three rushing touchdowns.
3. https://youtu.be/VLwrMD0VRmA?si=HoCugVFDlA0kvl8O
4. This game has the potential for a shoot-out, with the over/under 47, the Cardinals predicted to score 21.25 points and Buffalo 26.75, with the Cardinals playing from behind.
5. Buffalo’s defense not only allowed the most fantasy points to the slot position last season but allowed quarterbacks to rush for four touchdowns.

As we know the Buffalo defense will be without safeties Jordan Poyer and Micah Hyde as well as having someone other than head coach Sean McDermott call the defensive plays. It may work but it is the first game of the season, an adjustment period is in store.

            TIP: When making your Bloody Maria for the game and you insist on using tomato juice also include Hot Sauce, Horseradish, and Worcestershire (as well as salt and pepper)! And remember it is all about the presentation, so add garnishes that illicit surprise and awe, like shrimp, bacon, cucumber, olives, cherry tomatoes, jalapenos, and mini-gherkins, along with the traditional celery and lemon/lime wedges.

The Mat Play

This is the play you never thought you would consider but sometimes when the last call is heard and you have had your share of libations you get crazy, desperate, or just plain “why the fuck not” attitude. This is not the time nor place for that.

The mat play is running back Ezekiel Elliott now back with the Dallas Cowboys. There are many reasons to avoid Elliott this week (and maybe the Cowboys’ skilled players as a whole), these reasons include:

1. This game has one of the lowest implied totals at 41, with the Cowboys tied 27^th for the lowest implied points (19.25).
2. The Cleveland defense was a monster at home last season allowing:

Fifth fewest rushing attempts per game, 29.4

Fifth fewest rushing yards per game, 89.6.

Third fewest opponents play per game, 58.4

And the FEWEST yards per game, 215.9.

• Let’s face it if Jerry Jones didn’t think enough to upgrade his team (and specifically the running back room) in the off-season, why should we expect fantasy goodness?

TIP Just don’t.

“They say some bartenders swear too much. It’s me. I’m some bartenders.”

Good Luck out there and remember play nice or don’t play.

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