Week 10, where if you started Baker Mayfield, Devin Singletary, Trenton Irwin and Tyler Conklin you can outscore your opponent by over four times if they started Trevor Lawrence, Derrick Henry, Marquise Brown and Evan Engram. Here is a look at last week’s dynasty buys and sells. As for buys and sells for dynasty heading into Week 11, well you will have to keep reading.
BUY THIS
Embed from Getty ImagesDorian Thompson-Robinson (QB-Cleveland Browns)
WHY: Strong Preseason & Chance To Start Remainder Of Season
DTR’s first NFL start left a lot to be desired, with no TDs, three interceptions and a fumble. But with Deshaun Watson out for the remainder of the season, Browns’ coach Kevin Stefanski indicated it will be Thompson-Robinson starting in Week 11.
The former UCLA Bruin flashed some dual-threat upside in the preseason and the Browns are best-served to let him try his luck with a few more starts. The Browns currently sit at second in the AFC North so starting DTR is not signaling throwing in the towel. Instead the Browns have seen what PJ Walker offers and it is worth giving the rookie QB a chance.
The current expectation is for Watson to return as the starter in 2024. However, if 2023 has taught us anything is that QB depth cannot be overlooked. If DTR is able to gain some much-needed starting experience for the remainder of this season, the Browns can enter the 2024 season with a belief that if Watson were again injured that his backup could still lead the team to victory.
As trade deadlines for some dynasty leagues are approaching, this is the time to be looking for players to stash for the 2024 season. While DTR did not necessarily impress in his first NFL start, dynasty managers should consider buying now and reaping the rewards of DTR’s rushing upside.
Michael Carter (RB-Arizona Cardinals)
WHY: Best RB In Arizona Not Names James
After being buried in a crowded Jets’ backfield, Michael Carter enters a Cardinals RB room that is looking for a Robin to James Conner’s Batman. Carter can indeed fill that role with experience as both a runner and pass-catcher.
Carter started his career nearing 1,000 scrimmage yards in 2021 and his opportunity has trended downward since. Looking back to Carter’s college career, he and running-mate Javonte Williams formed a formidable duo. Pairing Carter with a powerful runner in Conner, coupled with the return of Kyler Murray makes for a great opportunity for Carter.
For those dynasty managers searching for cheap RB production, look no further than Michael Carter. If Carter impresses for the rest of the 2023 season, he could too find himself apart of the Cardinals’ backfield next season. And as far as opportunity Conner is no stranger to injury so if Carter remains healthy he could very well be the first man up were Conner to miss any time.
More Buys: Ty Chandler (RB-Minnesota Vikings) & Pat Freiermuth (TE-Pittsburgh Steelers)
SELL THAT
Embed from Getty ImagesDeshaun Watson (QB-Cleveland Browns)
WHY: Injury-Riddled Season Ends With… Injury
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Deshaun Watson simply has not been able to get his footing since joining the Cleveland Browns. 2023 would have been his first full season to serve as the starting QB and it was interrupted by shoulder injuries. Watson now looks ahead to the 2024 season where at age 29 he will look to string together a healthy, productive season.
From what Watson showed when healthy in 2023, I am not so sure this is the QB-5 from 2020 who had nine top-10 fantasy weeks; three of which were as the QB-1. He is, however, clearly still capable of top-10 weekly finishes.
In 2020, Watson averaged approximately 301 passing yards per game and slightly over two passing TDs per game. Contrast that with five games in 2023 (excludes Week 7) where Watson’s per game averages drop by 26% and 32%, respectively. Watson’s fantasy production through the air is simply not what it once was. Rushing is another story, as Watson has experienced similar production as far as rushing yards per game and rushing TDs per game comparing 2020 to 2023. A stark difference is in his fumble rate, which has doubled from 2020 (eight in sixteen games) to 2023 (five in five games).
Dynasty managers looking to sell Watson would be looking for the believer that were it not for the injuries he would have had QB-1 than QB-2 performances. Based on the discourse amongst the dynasty community, I do believe there are those buyers out there. However, color me a pessimist but I am not so sure about Watson’s future as a top dynasty QB.
George Pickens (WR-Pittsburgh Steelers)
WHY: Sporadic Production With Reduction In Targets – Johnson/Freiermuth Return
George Pickens remains one of the more polarizing WRs in dynasty community. The knock on Pickens has been his inability to create separation. While supporters have pointed to Pickens’ contested catch ability; as well as, the ineptitude of the Steelers’ OC Matt Canada.
Regardless of which side of the fence you are on, a healthy Diontae Johnson and Pat Freiermuth have and will eat into Pickens’ target share. In the absence of Johnson and Freiermuth, Pickens was given a greater role and not simply reduced to contested catches on the sideline (but he did still get those too).
Since his return in Week 7, Johnson has averaged over eight targets per game. And with the anticipated return of Freiermuth from the injured reserve, look for the TE to command at least another three to four targets per game.
Outside of targets, the Steelers have begun to shift their offensive philosophy. In the first five weeks, the Steelers have run a more run-heavy scheme in one of those weeks. Conversely, in three of the last four weeks the Steelers have leaned on a more run-heavy scheme. More importantly the Steelers have had more success scoring on the ground with red zone rushing success of 50% and 100% in Weeks 9 and 10.
Given Kenny Pickett’s struggles as a passer and emergence of Jaylen Warren as a runner, the Steelers appear to be best served in a more run-heavy offense. This does not eliminate WR fantasy production; however, it results in fewer targets with now more mouths to feed. And given the historical usage when all the Steelers’ pass-catchers are healthy, I am not bullish on Pickens for dynasty.
More Sells: Geno Smith (QB-Seattle Seahawks) & Gus Edwards (RB-Baltimore Ravens)
Thanks for stopping by and I will be posting weekly buys and sells throughout the 2023 NFL season. If you have any questions on buys and sells or weekly roster decisions please feel free to reach out on Twitter (X).
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