Could Tevin Coleman Finish As A Top-10 Fantasy Running Back This Year?

The San Francisco 49ers seemed to be in good shape at running back, with Matt Breida averaging 5.3 yards per carry last year, Jerick McKinnon coming back from a torn ACL and other depth in place (Raheem Mostert, Jeff Wilson).

But they signed Tevin Coleman to a two-year deal, with an early indication he’ll be San Francisco’s short yardage back to a more recent expectation he’ll lead the 49ers’ backfield in touches.

McKinnon is still working his way back from his knee injury, and Breida is expected to be out until training camp with a torn pectoral. Mostert is also recovering from surgery to repair a broken arm suffered last season, so Coleman will get first-team touches to himself during OTAs.

With Devonta Freeman out most of the season, Coleman started a career-high 14 games for the Atlanta Falcons last year and finished with 167 carries for 800 yards, 32 receptions for 276 yards and nine total touchdowns (four rushing, five receiving). He was RB18 in both standard and full-point PPR.

49ers head coach Kyle Shanahan was Atlanta’s offensive coordinator in 2015 and 2016. Coleman best season with Shanahan running the offense came in 2016, with 941 total yards, 11 total touchdowns (eight rushing). On 158 carries and targets, he finished as RB17 in standard scoring and RB19 in full-point PPR in 13 games that season.

Based on running back touch distribution over Shanahan’s last four seasons as a coordinator and head coach, Jennifer Eakins of 4-for-4 Fantasy Football puts the leader of the 49ers’ 2019 backfield somewhere in the neighborhood of Coleman’s 211 carries and targets from last year.

The Score has put together a 2019 Fantasy Football Strength of Schedule Matrix, which attempts to account for offseason changes. I generally dismiss strength of schedule on its face, but if you don’t the 49ers have the eighth-easiest schedule for running backs based on the matrix.

A nose for the end zone has driven Coleman to finishing as a top-20 fantasy running back in two of the last three seasons, with 2017 still falling in starter territory (RB22 in standard and full-point PPR).

It’s early, but Coleman is being drafted as RB30 (pick 6.05) in standard scoring and RB32 (pick 6.12) in 12-team leagues (via Fantasy Football Calculator). His ADP in PPR has been volatile just over the last handful of days, with a steady downward movement in standard scoring drafts.

Surely due to the uncertainty in San Francisco’s running back mix, Coleman is being drafted like a RB3 or flex right now. But RB2, weekly starter territory seems to be Coleman’s floor. Based on last year, he’d have to add a little over three points per game (PPR) and/or a shade over two points per game (standard scoring) to be a top-10 fantasy running back.

My projection puts Coleman in that RB2 mix, but the potential for more is real.

2019 Projection: 170 carries, 800 yards, 6 TD, 38 receptions for 315 yards, 3 TD

Percentage Chance of a Top-10 Fantasy RB Finish: 50%

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