DFS NBA Fanduel/DraftKings Lineup Advice 1/2/19

DFS NBA FanDuel Lineup 1/2/19

I’m not going to waste a lot of time with a long intro, but I’m kicking off the New Year with a resolution to put up some more NBA DFS content, starting with the nice sized slate. I’m writing this on the evening before the games, so some things may change by the times the games tip off. Here are my top plays, good luck…

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NBA DFS Legend

Nothing But Net	My top plays of the night at his position.
Dunk	A Dunk is a second or third tier player with the highest upside.
Half-Court Shot	Otherwise known as a “punt play.” A Low-priced, high-upside player.
Blocked Shot	A player I’ll be avoiding. Otherwise known as “Fading.”

**Main Slate

**Prices are Fanduel, but most plays translate to DraftKings

Point Guard

Nothing But Net | Russell Westbrook $12,000 @ LAL

I tried hard to not use Westbrook in this spot because it’s a bit of a cop-out to use him as the top overall play for PGs, but I’d be lying to myself and you if I tried to use someone else. Yes, that price tag is hefty, but no other PG on this slate has 75-point upside. Add to that the dream matchup with the fast-paced, LeBron-less Lakers and he is head and shoulders to top play at PG.

Dunk | Elfrid Payton $5,600 @ BKN

This pick is a bit of a reach and I would only risk it in a GPP, but Payton’s price tag of $5,600 gives him a ton of upside. Payton won’t give you a ton of points, but he will fill up every other stat category and if the Pels give him 30-plus minutes in his second game back from injury, he could easily pay off his 5.6k salary. His matchup with the Nets is the second best matchup a “distributor” style PG can have as they give up 48.14 Fanduels points to the position. Only the Sixers are worse (per Rotogrinders).

Half-Court Shot | Jerian Grant $3,600 @ CHI

This pick will depend on the status of D.J. Augustin (ankle). If Augustin misses another game, Grant will enter the starting lineup and should see more then the 26 minutes he saw the last game in a blowout loss to the Hornets. At $3,600, if he starts, he will be a plug and play that will let you pay up for Westbrook.

Blocked Shot | Lonzo Ball $6,500 vs OKC

Ball has been a popular play since LeBron got hurt on Christmas Day, but his play has steadily declined after his 55.8 FanDuel point game on 12/27. The Thunder are also a tough matchup for him as someone that can’t shoot from the outside very well. There are just better options that paying 6.5k for Ball just isn’t worth it.

Honorable Mentions: Tomas Satoransky $6,200, De’Anthony Melton $4,400

Shooting Guard

Nothing But Net | Devin Booker $8,600 vs PHI

This pick was more about the players I don’t like than it is about the players I do like. Beal is just gotten to be too expensive for my taste, Jimmy Butler is too up and down for me and while I like Holiday, he hasn’t been shooting as much lately. That leaves Booker in a middle-of-the-road matchup. Booker’s shot volume rivals that of the elite players in this league and on a team like the Suns, even if they are down big, he will continue to play –and shoot.

Dunk | Luka Doncic $7,800 @ CHA

Hornets are bottom four against combo guards this season, giving up 56.91 FanDuel points a game (per RotoGrinders). Don’t be scared off by his last game, you’ll have games like that as a rookie in this league, look for him to bounce back in a much better matchup.

Half-Court Shot | Malik Monk $4,600 vs DAL

With Jeremy Lamb expected to miss another game, Monk should inherit some of those minutes. He put up 35.6 FanDuel points in 24 minutes in his last game with no Lamb and should get a similar workload in a decent matchup.

Blocked Shot | Bradley Beal $9,800 vs ATL

As I already mentioned, he is just too expensive and leaves very little upside at that price. He is priced at his ceiling.

Honorable Mentions: Jrue Holiday $8,600

Small Forward

Nothing But Net | Paul Geroge $10,000 @ LAL

Much like Westbrook, I would be doing you a disservice to recommend any other player as the top play at SF. This is a great matchup for George in his hometown.

Dunk | Jeff Green $5,600 vs ATL

This may be the last game that Green will be a viable play as Otto Porter Jr. is due to come back. It’s possible that Porter is back for this game, but I’d expect him to play limited minutes, allowing Green to log enough minutes to be worth the 5.6k price tag.

Half-Court Shot | Theo Pinson $3,500 vs NOP

Pinson would be a true punt play if you decide to use him. An injury to Allen Crabbe and a rest day for D’Angelo Russell allowed him to log 27 minutes on 12/29. Crabbe should still be out, which should open some minutes for Pinson, who looked pretty good last time out with 22.4 FanDuel points in those 27 minutes.

Blocked Shot | T.J. Warren $7,100 vs PHI

This is a tough matchup for Warren and when you combined that with his relatively low floor (has games of 15 and 18 Fanduel points over his last five) he just isn’t that appealing to me.

Honorable Mentions: Brandon Ingram $6,800, 

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Power Forward

Nothing But Net | John Collins $8,400 @ WAS

Process of elimination makes Collins the top play on this slate. I’m not sure I can trust Anthony Davis to play (if he does, he is the top play) and Blake Griffin has a tough matchup on the second game of a back to back. Collins doesn’t have the ceiling you would want for a GPP play, but he makes for a good cash game play in a good matchup with the Wizards.

Dunk | Kyle Kuzma $7,400 vs OKC

The PF position tonight isn’t that attractive and I don’t love Kuzma in this matchup, but lack of options leaves me coming back to him in a game that should be fairly high-paced and high-scoring.

Half-Court Shot | Taj Gibson $4,800 @ BOS

I wish we could just make the PF spot a flex spot tonight, it’s ugly. Gibson always makes for a solid play at a cheap price. He won’t give you 45 but he rarely has fewer than 20. It’s not sexy by any means, but after a couple of drinks, it’ll look better.

Blocked Shot | Blake Griffin $8,800 @ MEM

I’m putting Griffin in this spot as more of a “buyer beware”, but on a night where PF is so ugly, playing Griffin isn’t a terrible idea, just temper expectations. It’s a tough matchup on the second game of a back-to-back.

Honorable Mentions: Lauri Markkanen $7,400

Center

Nothing But Net | Karl-Anthony Towns $10,500 @ BOS

KAT has been playing out of his mind over his last three games and despite the tough matchup, I don’t see any way he wouldn’t be the top play. He has three straight games with 69 or more FanDuel points, including a 90 game in Miami.

Dunk | Steven Adams $7,000 @ LAL

This is a game I’m targeting in case you haven’t noticed by now. It’s an expensive game to target with Westbrook and PG13, but Steven Adams can give me some cheap exposure to a game with a 230 point over/under. Adams has one of the most consistent floors for all centers and should easily put up another double-double in this game.

Half-Court Shot | JaVale McGee $5,700 vs OKC

Remember early in the season when McGee was cheap and he was killing it in limited minutes and then his price got up in the 6-7k range and he wasn’t the value anymore? Well, he is back in that value range, time to use him again.

Blocked Shot | Andre Drummond $9,500 @ MEM

Drummond only reaches value when he is grabbing a ton a rebounds, which I don’t expect there to be a bunch of chances to grab many in this game. The Grizzlies still play at one of the slowest paces in the league, leaving less possesions and less shots in which to grab rebounds.

Honorable Mentions: Nikola Vucevic $9,800 @ CHI

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