DFS NBA FanDuel Lineup Advice 12/4/17

DFS NBA FanDuel Lineup Advice 12/4/17

I don’t know if I will have time to publish the sheet today. I’ve been sick in bed for two days, and while that may seem like the perfect time to do the sheet, I will likely be sleeping all day. I’m going to do a write-up instead because I slept all day Sunday and now it’s Sunday night and I’m not tired. Go figure.

We have a huge 11-game slate to work with today, which should open up tons of value. Keep in mind, I write this the night before the games are played so some of the plays may change with breaking news. Let’s get started…

**NOTE** I started to write this and filled in all the names I wanted to feature, but the sickness got the best of me and I ran out of gas. I’m going to publish what I have with the intention to come back and write the narratives at some point today, but I can’t make any promises.  

NBA DFS Legend

Nothing But Net	My top plays of the night at his position.
Dunk	A Dunk is a second or third tier player with the highest upside.
Half-Court Shot	Otherwise known as a “punt play.” A Low-priced, high-upside player.
Blocked Shot	A player I’ll be avoiding. Otherwise known as “Fading.”

Point Guard

Nothing But Net | Stephen Curry $9,900 @ NO

Curry gets the NBN tag by default. John Wall is out and Kyrie Irving has a bad matchup, which I will explain later, Curry is the top play at PG. The Pelicans are the sixth worst team in defending the PG position over the last four weeks (per Rotogrinders.com). The only worry you have here is the blowout potential with Anthony Davis still out.

Dunk | Spencer Dinwiddie $7,500 @ ATL / Dennis Schroder $8,400 vs BKN

I couldn’t decide between these two, so I listed both. They are playing against one another, and neither of them plays defense. The Hawks are giving up 45.27 per game over the last four weeks, and the Pacers aren’t far behind them at 44.82.

Half-Court Shot | Dennis Smith Jr. $5,500 vs DEN

A stomach virus has limited his minutes over the last few games and hurt his production —  but that has also lowered his price. The Denver Nuggets are the third worst team defending the PG, giving up 49.44 points per game. I expect DSJ to have a bounce-back game here and at 5.5K, he is a great play.

Blocked Shot | Kyrie Irving $8,500 vs MIL

Over the last four weeks, only the Houston Rockets with Chris Paul are better at defending the point guard spot. Eric Bledsoe is not a great defender, but with Kris Middleton and Giannis Antetokounmpo able to guard so many positions, they are able to make up for Bledsoe’s defensive deficiencies.

Shooting Guard

Nothing But Net | Donovan Mitchell $7,500 vs WAS

On paper this matchup isn’t a good matchup for Mitchell as the Wizards are among the leagues best defending the shooting guard position, however, without John Wall, the Wizards haven’t been quite as good defensively.

Dunk | Klay Thompson $7,000 @ NO

This game and the Suns/Sixers game have, by far, the highest over/under on the slate and you will want some good exposure to both. Thompson is a bit one-dimensional as a player as he will only garner fantasy points by scoring, with little-to-no peripherals to speak of, however, he is “blow-out” proof. Unlike Kevin Durant and Steph Curry, Thompson and Draymond Green rarely sit out the fourth quarters completely when there is a blowout. They will likely play up until four-to-five minutes are left in the fourth quarter.

Half-Court Shot | J.J. Redick $5,700 vs PHO

From one high-paced game to another. Redick gets a matchup with the fifth worst team defending the SG, and will have ample opportunities to score tonight. His price offers just enough upside to get some cheap exposure to this game.

Blocked Shot | Victor Oladipo $9,200 vs NY

This is strictly price based. I have a hard time paying over $9,000 for Oladipo. Don’t get me wrong, he has been amazing this year and is showing just how bad a fit he and Russell Westbrook were last year, but I’m not ready to put him in the elite category yet and 9.2K is an elite price.

Small Forward

Nothing But Net | LeBron James $12,000 @ CHI

LeBron James and Giannis Antetokounmpo are pretty much interchangeable on this slate. Both have been playing at an MVP level but I’m giving the slight edge to James based on his $400 discount over the Greek Freak.

Dunk | Robert Covington $7,000 vs PHO

Here we are with that high-paced, high over/under game again. RoCo is one of those players that can literally fill the box score, from points, rebounds, assists to blocks, steals and, unfortunately, turnovers, he can do it all. For what it’s worth, the Suns turn the ball over the fourth worse rate in the league, which could lead to some easy steals for RoCo.

Half-Court Shot | Courtney Lee $5,500 @ IND

With both Tim Hardaway Jr. and Kritaps Prozingis already ruled out for this game, the Knicks will have to find offense somewhere else, and for about a month now, Lee has been a good source of scoring. He has two straight games with over 33 FanDuel points and should have no trouble getting there again tonight.

Blocked Shot | Jimmy Butler $8,400 @ MEM

Butler has been playing well lately after some early season struggles, but a matchup with the slowest paced team and one of the lower over/under games on the slate, I’ll pass on him tonight.

Power Forward

Nothing But Net | Ben Simmons $10,500 vs PHO

Simmons is coming off his worst statistical performance of his young career and only put up 28 FanDuel points against the Pistons, his first time all season with less than 30 FanDuel points. The Suns are the worst team defending the power forward position, which is what Fanduel lists Simmons as, but they are also second worst against the point guard position. He is by far the best player, in the fastest paced game with the highest over/under, and is nearly 2k cheaper than James and the Greek Freak. Where do I sign up?

Dunk | Derrick Favors $7,600 vs WAS  Rudy Gobert expected to play pivot to Draymond Green

Favors is listed as a power forward, which according to Rotogrinders, the Wizards are third best in the league defending, however, with Rudy Gobert still out, Favors has been playing center. The Wizards are the fifth worst team against the center over the last four weeks.

Half-Court Shot | Luke Babbit $4,500 vs BKN

With all the injured, the Hawks have on their front-line a lot of DFSer’s will be playing Ersan Ilyasova and his expected increase in minutes. I, however, will take Babbit at $1,100 cheaper and should also see a significant increase in minutes. His cheaper price tag will make it easier for him to hit value.

Blocked Shot | NONE

Center

Nothing But Net | Joel Embiid $10,400 vs PHO

A lot of people will be on DeMarcus Cousins, and I can’t blame them, however, I like Embiid slightly better. The Suns will either have old man Tyson Chandler or bullfighter Greg Monroe guarding him. I say bullfighter cause when someone goes towards the basket against Greg Monroe, he gets out of the way, he is a terrible defender. I like those matchups against Embiid and he will be his normal dominant self.

Dunk | Kevin Love $8,000 @ CHI

Love has been playing extremely well of late with two straight double-doubles and just missing a third by one rebound. The Bulls are middle of the pack in defending the center over the last four weeks, but Love’s rebounding give him a high floor and his scoring gives him a high ceiling.

Half-Court Shot | Enes Kanter $6,600 @ IND

There isn’t much below Kanter in terms of price that I like, so his price is a little higher than I would normally use for my H-CS, but with Porzingis out again, Kanter makes for a great play. he has two straight 40 Fanduel point games and gets a matchup with the second worst team defending the center over the last four weeks– only the Net are worse (per rotogrinders.com)

Blocked Shot | Andre Drummond $9,600 @ SA

Slow paced game, lowest over/under and bad matchup has me fading Drummond tonight.

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