Happy Tuesday everyone! Hope you had a good Monday and made some money. Today is a small slate, so I won’t be doing a complete write-up. I will upload the spreadsheet and I will give my thoughts on a few plays called out by the sheet.
For those new to the sheet, keep in mind, the “Rankings” are 99 percent based on statistics with very little user input. The only time I change anything is when there is a player ruled out and one player stands to benefit from it, I will use projections rather than a player’s “Last 5 games”.
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Here is the spreadsheet for today and my short write-ups below. I should have a full write-up for tomorrow’s larger slate.
CLICK HERE: NBA FanDuel Spreadsheet 1/9/18
Here are just a few things I see when I look a the sheet…
DeMar DeRozan $9,300Â
I’m expecting Kyle Lowry out, so the fact that DeRozan gets the top grade is no surprise. Russell Westbrook might have more Fanduel points when it’s all said and done, but dollar for dollar, DeDe is the top play. His already high usage rate goes up 11 percent when Lowry is out (per RotoGrinders).
Dennis Smith Jr. $6,100
DSJ has the second highest grade for PGs and will be a good low-owned alternative to Shabazz Napier, who will likely be the chalk paired with Westbrook. At the time of this article, this game had the highest over/under at 215 points.
Goran Dragic $6,500
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Another good low-owned alternative will be Dragic who will get a matchup with a backup point guard if Lowry, in fact, sits out.
Harrison Barnes $6,800
Barnes is the highest graded small forward according to the sheet and he gets the “3 thumbs up” matchup. His ceiling isn’t very high, but his usage ensures him a high floor. He is a good cash game play for his consistency but in GPPs, he isn’t likely to hit six or seven times value.
Josh Richardson $5,600
With four straight games over 30 FanDuel points and his cash game value being about 26 FanDuel points, he gets the “HOT” tag. (to see how I define cash game value, see CvP explained on the How to Read tab on the sheet)
Evan Turner $4,000 FADE
Turner is graded as the best “value” at small forward, but I don’t trust it. A lot of weight is put on “Last 5 game” averages, and the 31.1 and 37.8 point games he put up is artificially raising his score. He has a tough matchup with a plus defender in Paul George too. I just wanted to use Turner as an example as to why you shouldn’t follow the sheet blindly. It’s not intended to be the end-all-be-all. Use it with your own research.
Jusuf Nurkic $7,500
Nurk gets a nice little bump in usage when Damian Lillard is out of the lineup. I agree with his top rank for centers. He has the best dollar for dollar upside.
Wesley Matthews/Bogdan Bogdanovic $5,500/$4,600
These two are graded as the best values on the slate. I disagree slightly as I like Delon Wright and Shabazz Napier more, but both of these guys are viable alternatives, especially in GPPs.
HOT Sheet
The Hot sheet lists four PGs currently exceeding cash game value at their price. All four are likely to be heavily owned tonight.
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