DFS NBA FanDuel Starting 5 Lineup Advice 1/24/18

DFS NBA FanDuel Starting 5 Lineup Advice 1/24/18

Holy Boogie Cousins! I think he ended up with 97-plus Fanduel points last night. Thankfully, I rostered him in one of my GPP lineups in which I pretty much stacked that entire game. My cash lineup also ended up doing its thing too, so all-in-all a good night in S5.

Tonight we have a huge nine-game slate and a ton of star power. As I’ve mentioned before, in S5, you don’t always need to have the big-time studs on your roster, unless, of course, they go off for 97 FanDuel points. You pretty much have to have them if you want any shot at winning a GPP.

On the next slide, before we get to the advice for today, I’m going to post my cash lineup from last night and break it down to show you why you don’t need the big-time studs in cash like you do in the Classic contests.

 

NBA DFS Legend

Nothing But Net	My top plays of the night at his position.
Dunk	A Dunk is a second or third tier player with the highest upside.
Half-Court Shot	Otherwise known as a “punt play.” A Low-priced, high-upside player.
Blocked Shot	A player I’ll be avoiding. Otherwise known as “Fading.”

**Main Slate

Cash Lineup Strategy

Okay, first off the total number of points we are looking for is 200. I have yet to reach 200 FanDuel points with a lineup and not cash in 5050s or double-ups. Some quick math tells us that you need about 40 FanDuel points per player to reach 200 total points and ultimately to ensure you cash in 5050s and double-ups.

Looking at my lineup above, I was projecting every player in this lineup to hit 40 FanDuel points and as you can see, outside of Richardson, they all either came close or exceeded it. None of these guys were the top players in their positions, not even close in some cases. For guards, we had John Wall, Chris Paul and James Harden — all $15,000. Forwards had Anthony Davis and center we had DeMarcus Cousins.

By going with a balanced lineup, I was able to cash easily despite Cousins going off for 97 FanDuel points. In classic cash games, if Boogie went off for 97 FanDuel points, there would be a pretty good chance that you wouldn’t cash if you didn’t own him.

Okay, let’s get to today’s games…

Guards

Nothing But Net | Chris Paul $13,500 @ DAL

Last night Chris Paul was a fade for me because of his price tag, but today his price has dropped to a point that I think you will get the most bang for your buck by rostering him. Paul is a sure-fire candidate to get the 40-plus Fanduel points we are looking for and has 60-plus upside. Tonight he gets a Mavs team that ranks dead last over the last four weeks in points allowed to opposing point guards — giving up 52.89 Fanduel points per game over that span.

Dunk | Kyrie Irving $11,500 @ LAC

I’m writing this before the 10:30 pm EST game between the Celtics and Lakers tip-off, some of these stats I give may be outdated by the time you read this — or god forbid Irving gets hurt tonight. The Clippers are the fourth worst team over the last four weeks defending the point guard giving up 50.13 FanDuel points a game over that span. He is coming off his season high of 57.9 Fanduel points against the Magic and knowing Kyrie from his days in Cleveland, he can be very streaky. If that 57 point game starts a hot streak, jump on board.

Half-Court Shot | Jerian Grant $9,500 @ PHI

Kris Dunn has now missed two games and if he were to miss his third, Grant becomes the chalk on this slate. He just dropped 50.5 FanDuel points on the Pels, and while the Sixers pose a stiffer test than did the Pels, his price and high volume usage make him a near must in cash games.

Blocked Shot | James Harden $15,500 @ DAL

Harden is a GPP play. Using him in cash games will be difficult because of his price tag. There is a chance that by the time you read this, so more value has opened up allowing you to roster him, but as of 9:30 pm EST on Tuesday night, he is a fade.

Honorable Mentions: All-Star Snubs — Lou Williams $12,000 and Devin Booker $11,500, Kemba Walker $12,000

Forwards

Nothing But Net | LaMarcus Aldridge $12,500 @ MEM

Here is one spot that S5 has a distinct advantage over Classic contests. You can roster LMA without any fear that he may get ruled out on the second half of a back-to-back. Starting 5 contests have late swap, and with Blake Griffin at the same price of $12,500 and playing at 10:30 pm EST, it’s an easy pivot and you lose nothing in terms of upside.

Now, on to why I took LMA over Blake in the first place. The Grizzlies are the seventh worst team defending the power forward spot and Aldridge has owned the Grizzlies this year. In two games against them this year he is averaging 31 points and 7 rebounds per game. As long as Popovich doesn’t decide to rest him, LMA is an elite play at the Forward spot.

Dunk | T.J. Warren $10,500 @ IND

Warren quietly flies under the radar in Daily Fantasy. He rarely puts up the gaudy numbers that his teammate Devin Booker does nor does he have the high flying highlight reel plays we all love. Nope, he just consistently goes out and gives you 35-to-40 Fanduel points a night. regardless of the matchup — which in this case is a really good one. The Pacers are sixth worst over the last four weeks defending the small forward position, giving up 43.29 FanDuel points per game over that span.

Half-Court Shot | Nikola Mirotic $9,500 @ PHI

I struggled with this pick and went back and forth between Mirotic and Kyle Anderson, ultimately going with Miro strictly based usage rate, which is higher for Mirotic (25) than Anderson (14).

Now, let me dispell a myth here before we move on. Usage rate is measured everytime a player scores or assists on a play while he is on the floor. I emphasized “on the floor” because it is incorrectly thought that the percentage is based on a team’s total offensive possessions. Okay, that’s a little confusing so let me give you an example.

Player A is on the floor for only two minutes. In those two minutes, his team has 10 possessions. He scores or assists on five of those possessions. His usage rate? 50 percent. Does that mean we want to roster him because of that usage rate? Of course not.

Okay, that was an extreme example, but if we apply that logic to this scenario, Mirotic only plays 20-to-25 minutes a game whereas Anderson plays 30-plus. Both are good plays, but I lean slightly to Mirotic tonight.

Blocked Shot | Ben Simmons $12,000 vs CHI

Has Simmons hit the proverbial rookie wall? Maybe not, but he hasn’t looked good over his last five games and his price is too high to risk him putting up another 22-to-25 FanDuel point game.

Honorable Mentions: Harrison Barnes $10,500, Lauri Markkanen $10,000, Kyle Anderson $9,500

Centers

Nothing But Net | Andre Drummond $14,000 vs UTA

Okay, I’m not going to give you any stats on this one. I’m just going to post two tweets by Andre Drummond after being snubbed in the All-Star game…

Gotta be fuckin kidding me lol

— Andre Drummond (@AndreDrummond) January 24, 2018

Guess I gotta start doing back flips after every point I score to get attention around here!

Lmao on to the next

— Andre Drummond (@AndreDrummond) January 24, 2018

Dunk | Dwight Howard $12,500 vs NOP

Howard has five straight games with 15 or more rebounds and eight straight games in double digits. He also has a nine-game streak with at least one block, including 15 blocks over his last four. In other words, Howard seems to have found his home in Charlotte. He is playing better right now than he ever has in his career, including his days in Orlando. I know that’s a strong statement, but if you look at the numbers you will see that I’m right.

Half-Court Shot | Greg Monroe $8,000 @ IND

We had a Greg Monroe sighting! I really don’t know what Monroe did to deserve his fate. He was one of the most highly sought after free agents a few summers ago. He was widely expected to go to New York but surprised everyone by signing with the Bucks, where Jason Kidd promptly made him the highest played bench player in the league. Then he gets traded to a Suns team with 97-year-old Tyson Chandler, and he still rarely gets on the court.

Okay, off my soapbox. Monroe’s status as a top play will depend on Tyson Chandler. If he sits, play Monroe. If he plays, don’t play Monroe. Simple as that.

Blocked Shot | DeMarcus Cousins $17,000 @ CHA

I think $17,000 is the highest price of any player, ever, on the S5 contests. There is no way he repeats his performance tonight. A lot of things had to happen for him to get 97 Fanduel points. Anthony Davis fouled out, Bulls are terrible against centers, and the game went into double overtime. I’ll pass.

Honorable Mentions: Pau Gasol** $9,500, Clint Capela $11,000

 

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