DFS NFL FanDuel/DraftKings Lineup Advice Week 12 (11/25/18)

I hope everyone had a good Thanksgiving. I haven’t put up an NFL advice column all year, but with us not doing the podcast this week, I thought it would a good time to do one. We have a 10 game slate to look at this weekend for the main slate. There are only two games on this slate with an over/under at 50 points or more — the 49ers @ Bucs (54) and the Dolphins @ Colts (50). I will be targeting both of these games heavily in Week 12, especially with the amount of value both games offer. Let’s get started…

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Explosive Play	My top play for the position
Deep Threat	A deep threat is a second or third tier player that will outperform their price on FanDuel/DraftKings.
Hail Mary	Also know as a punt, a Hail Mary is a cheap, low-owned player with a ton of upside. Great for GPP's.
Missed Tackle	A missed tackle is a first or second tier player that I’ll be fading in my contests.

*note* Prices are based on FanDuel, but most plays will crossover to DraftKings as well

Quarterbacks

Explosive Play | Andrew Luck (IND) $8,400 vs MIA

As I aluded to in the opening, I will be targetting this game in a lot of my lineups and I’ll have some good exposure to Luck. The Dolphins rank 22nd in DVOA against the pass, but even if they were ranked higher, it hasn’t mattered for Luck as he has 7 straight games with three or more TD passes. That includes games against the Bills and Jaguars, ranked No. 1 and No. 7 respectively in DVOA verse the pass.

Deep Threat | Jameis Winston (TB) $7,500 vs SF

Which Winston will we get this time? The guy that ended up as QB12 despite only playing one half of football last week or the guy that threw 4 INTs in Week 8 against one of the worst pass defenses in the league, the Bengals. At $7,500, the risk of getting the first guy is worth it. The 49ers pass defense has been terrible all season and in this 1 PM EST game for the west coast 49ers, they will struggle to stop the Bucs all day. The Bucs are not a good running team and the 49ers are actually decent stopping the run, which will lead to more drop backs for Winston. And, as I mentioned in the open, this game has the highest O/U on the slate.

Hail Mary | Josh McCown (NYJ) $6,000 vs NE

There are three things working in McCown’s favor, and those three things are why I will own him in a few lineups.

1. I expect the Jets to be down for most of this game, leading to more passes for McCown.
2. The Patriots pass defense hasn’t been great, ranking at 20th DVOA verse the pass.
3. He is the minimum price for a QB on FanDuel, and near minimum on DraftKings.

I won’t be going heavy on him, and I will likely run him naked as I don’t like any of his receiving options, but McCown isn’t a bad QB and could put up some decent numbers.

Missed Tackle | Philip Rivers (LAC) $8,300 vs ARI

I’m fading Rivers not because I don’t think he has a good game, I’m fading him because I don’t think he needs to air it out in this one. I expect Melvin Gordon to have a big game here, thus capping Rivers ceiling.

Others I like: Carson Wentz $7,700, Baker Mayfield $7,500

Running Backs

Explosive Play | Melvin Gordon (LAC) $8,900 vs ARI

As mentioned above, I think Gordon is going to have a huge game against this Cardinals defense. They are actually ranked middle of the pack verse the run, but Gordon can beat you through the air as well, a place the Cardinals struggle with, ranking 18th DVOA verse the RB in the passing game.

Deep Threat | Nick Chubb (CLE) $7,500 @ CIN

Chubb has received consistent volume since the Browns traded away RB Carlos Hyde midseason. Coming off the bye week, I wouldn’t expect that to change and as we saw the game before the bye, Chubb is starting to see some targets in the passing game as well. The Bengals are the 30th ranked team against the run in DVOA.

Hail Mary | Josh Adams (PHI) $5,700 vs NYG

I’ve been waiting to see this kid get his shot at the starting job ever since Jay Ajayi went down earlier this season. He finally drew his first start last week against the Saints, unfortunately, that game was over before it started and Adams was effectively taken out of the game plan. The Giants will not be able to put up that kind of production, allowing the Eagles to establish Adams early on. I like his price on DraftKings ($3,800) more then I do on FanDuel, but he is more of a “FanDuel” type of RB with his lack of involvement in the passing game.

Missed Tackle | None

Others I like: Leonard Fournette $8,100, Elijah McGuire $4,900

Wide Receivers

Explosive Play | Odell Beckham Jr. (NYG) $8,500 @ PHI

There are so many good plays at WR this week, it”ll be tough to narrow it down, but for me it’s OBJ. The Eagles are practicing this week without their top four defensive backs. I’m not an NFL coach, but I’m going to go out on a limb and say, “That’s not good.” <— Game changing analysis right there, this is why you visit GoingFor2.

Deep Threat | Keenan Allen (LAC) $7,700 vs ARI

The Cardinals secondary is ranked fifth in DVOA verse the pass but they rank 22nd against slot WRs — Allen lines up in the slot 53 percent of the time. I think most DFSers will avoid this matchup based on the Cardinals overall pass rank, but Allen should dominate in the slot. He will likely play a higher percentage over his season average in slot for this game.

Hail Mary | D.J Moore (CAR) $5,800 vs SEA  

Moore looks to have taken over as the No. 1 WR job in Carolina as Devin Funchess has fallen off the map over the last few weeks. His eight targets last week lead the team as did his 157 receiving yards. The Seahawks are a tough pass defense, but if Moore continues to get that kind of volume combined with his big play ability, he is a worthy GPP option.

Missed Tackle | Antonio Brown (PIT) $8,500 @ DEN

Okay, I’m not actually suggesting you completely fade Brown. He is too good for that. I’m just worried about “Road Ben” showing up in Denver and hurting this passing attack against a good pass defense.

Others I like: Mike Evans $7,900, T.Y. Hilton $7,500

Tight Ends

Explosive Play | Zach Ertz (PHI)  $7,600 vs NYG / George Kittle (SF) $7,500 @ TB

Flip a coin on these two guys. Both great plays. Both great matchups.

Deep Threat | Vance McDonald (PIT) $5,500 @ DEN

McDonald has been coming on strong lately with two straights games with a TD. Sunday he gets a matchup with the 18th ranked team in DVOA against the TE. McDonald has 14 targets over the last three games, and that kind of volume for a TE in this barren landscape of TEs is worth it.

Hail Mary | Cameron Brate (TB) $4,400 vs SF

Brate will likely be the highest owned TE on the slate on both sites as his price was released before the news of O.J. Howard’s season-ending injury. The 49ers are 22nd DVOA verse the TE.

Missed Tackle | Rob Gronkowski (NE) $6,900 @ NYJ

There is no way I’m trusting Gronk at $6,900 coming off a back injury in a season that he wasn’t very good even when healthy.

Others I like: David Njoku $5,100

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Defense

Explosive Play | Ravens $5,000 vs OAK

The reason is simple on this one. They play the Raiders.

Deep Threat | Bills $4,000 vs JAX

Blake Bortles has struggled mightily lately, and he could turn the ball over a few times.

Hail Mary | Browns $3,100 @ CIN

This one is a true Hail Mary. The Bengals are a pretty good offense but without A.J. Green they could struggle against this Browns defense that has shown flashes this season.

Missed Tackle | Eagles $3,800 vs NYG

As I mentioned above, the Eagles could be without their top four DBs for this game.

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