DFS NFL FanDuel/DraftKings Lineup Advice Week 3 (9/22/19)
DFS NFL FanDuel/DraftKings Lineup Advice Week 3 (9/22/19)
No time for a long lede in this week, I just wanted to quickly plug the Friday Armchair Fantasy Show. Friday night is the night we go live at 9:30 pm EST. You should definitely check us out live on YouTube.
Me, Gerson, Tim and Jason break down each week’s slate and give you our top plays, values, cash game picks and our stacks. As well as our fan favorite, “The Sick Call of the Week”.
We are also on Periscope, Facebook Live and all major podcast netowrks. Just search for “The Armchair Fantasy Show.”
Now, on to the slate…
| Explosive Play | My top play for the position |
| Deep Threat | A deep threat is a second or third tier player that will outperform their price on FanDuel/DraftKings. |
| Hail Mary | Also know as a punt, a Hail Mary is a cheap, low-owned player with a ton of upside. Great for GPP's. |
| Missed Tackle | A missed tackle is a first or second tier player that I’ll be fading in my contests. |
*note* Prices are based on DraftKings, but most plays will crossover to FanDuel as well
*note* Main slate only
Quarterbacks
Explosive Play | Lamar Jackson (BAL) $7,000 @ KC
This play is a no-brainer, and normally I try to avoid the no-brainer calls, but Jackson is in too good a spot not to have as my top play. The general consensus is that the Chiefs defense plays better at home, but in 2018, that just wasn’t the case. They gave up 12 rushing TDs at home vs. only seven on the road allowed 19 passing TDs a home vs. 11 on the road, and opposing QB’s passer rating was 105.2 at home vs. 74.0 on the road. Fire up Jackson this week.
Deep Threat | Deshaun Watson (HOU) $6,400 @ LAC
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Both of the Chargers All-Pro safeties are out with injuries for this game. Derwin James is done for the year and Adrian Phillips out indefinitely with a possible season-ender. That should allow Watson and Co. a chance to bounce back after last week’s dismal performance in the passing game. They are currently ranked 25th in DVOA vs. the pass (via FootballOutsiders.com)
Hail Mary | Matt Stafford (DET) $5,500 @ PHI
As much as the Lions want to run the ball this year, it hasn’t really worked out so far as Stafford threw it 45 times in Week 1 and 30 times last week in a game that was 13-to-10. The Eagles rank 2nd in DVOA vs. the run but 23rd vs. the pass. The Lions will try to establish the run, but when they can’t look for Stafford to air it out once again.
Missed Tackle | Aaron Rodgers (GB) $6,100 vs. DEN
Rodgers has been “okay” as an NFL QB through two weeks of the season but has been terrible as a fantasy QB. 12.92 and 15.36 won’t get it done.
Others I like: Josh Allen $5,900
Running Backs
Explosive Play | Christian McCaffery (CAR) $8,700 @ ARI
McCaffery’s usage should go up in this game with Cam Newton not expected to play. The Cardinals also run more plays per game than any other team in the NFL — second on that list is the Panthers. This game should have a ton of possessions for both sides, and that favors a guy like CMC with the volume he should receive.
Deep Threat | Sony Michel (NE) $6,000 vs NYJ
I’d expect the Patriots to once again roll over a much weaker opponent and have Michel as their closer in the fourth quarter to shorten the game. He had 21 carries last week vs. the Dolphins and should see a similar workload this week.
Hail Mary | Jordan Wilkins (IND) 3,500 vs ATL
This play is only viable if Marlon Mack sits out Week3. Today is Friday and it looks like he got a limited practice in and he could be headed for a full-on game-time decision.
Missed Tackle | Alvin Kamara (NO) $8,000 @ SEA
Saints have never been a good road team, they don’t have Drew Brees and the Seahawks have the best home-field advantage in the NFL. No thanks.
Others I like: Austin Ekeler $7,200, Mark Ingram $5,700
Wide Receivers
Explosive Play | DeAndre Hopkins (HOU) $7,800 @ LAC
see DeShaun Watson.
Deep Threat | Keenan Allen (LAC) $7,000 vs HOU
Allen has been a target monster through the first two weeks and that should continue vs. a weak Texans secondary. This game has sneaky shoot-out potential. Double-check Allen’s status as he has been limited all week.
Hail Mary | Nelson Agholor (PHI) $3,600 vs DET
With Desan Jackson already ruled out and Alshon Jeffery expected to be out, Agholor is the chalk value this week. If you’re looking to pivot off him, take a look at Mack Hollins at the same price range.
Missed Tackle | Amari Cooper (DAL) $7,500 vs MIA
This will be the game the Feed the Zeke. They won’t need to throw it and with Cooper’s foot situation, he may get pulled.
Others I like: Mike Evans $6,600, Calvin Ridley $5,300
Tight Ends
Explosive Play | Zach Ertz (PHI) $5,700 vs DET
As I already mentioned, two of the Eagles top WRs are out and Ertz had 16 targets last game — a lot of them coming after both receivers were out. The price difference between Ertz and Kelce make Ertz a great play.
Deep Threat | Vance McDonald (PIT) $4,300 @ SF
McDonald seemed to come alive last week when Mason Rudolph took over catching two TDs with him under center. The Steelers will likely limit the playbook this week with this being Rudolph’s first start and being on the road. That could mean short passes over the middle to McDonald.
Hail Mary | O.J. Howard (TB) $3,800 vs NYG
The squeaky wheel gets greased this week. If Howard can’t do it vs the Giants, then who?
Missed Tackle | Travis Kelce (KC) $7,100 vs BAL
His price difference over all the other TEs on the slate makes him unplayable for me this week unless I’m mass-multi entering contests.
Others I like: Mark Andrews $4,600
Defense
Explosive Play | Cowboys $4,300 vs MIA
Start the defense vs. Miami every week.
Deep Threat | Bills vs CIN $3,400
Cincy looked bad last week at home. They couldn’t stop the run, they couldn’t tackle, and they have a few blown coverages on defense. The Bills defense is a sneaky pivot off the Cowboys chalk.
Hail Mary | Bucs vs NYG
Speaking of sneaky. The Bucs have quietly been “not terrible” on defense scoring 12 DK points vs the Niners in Week 1 and 9 DK points last week at Carolina. The Giants are a bad team with a rookie QB making his first start on the road.
Missed Tackle | Eagles vs DET
My worry with the Eagles defense is their offense. How good will the offense be without their two top WRs and their inefficient run game? Will they be able to sustain drives long enough to get the defense the rest it needs, because if the Lions can get their run game going the way they want it to, and the Eagles front seven get worn down, it could be a long day for the Eagles.
Others I like: Patriots $3,800
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