Early DraftKings Value Plays- NFL Week 1 (9/8/19)

With week 1 quickly approaching, and plenty of juicy matchups in store, let’s dive into some of the potential value plays for the first week of football on DraftKings. Overall, DraftKings did a good job pricing up the matchups with the highest potential to shootout. In addition, backup players coming into potentially starting roles (See Austin Ekeler or Tony Pollard) have seen a price increase.

However, there are still good values to be found based on preseason performance and/or recent injuries. Below are 1-2 players from each position who are set up to deliver value on week 1. Please note, an update will be provided the week of kick-off.

QUARTERBACK

Matt Stafford ($5,400), Detroit Lions at Arizona Cardinals

You probably read the hype surrounding the Kliff Kingsbury/Kyler Murray Air Raid offense. While I will definitely be keeping a close eye on the Cardinals in week-long and daily fantasy circles, why not load up on their week 1 opponent? If you haven’t heard, the Cardinals defense will be BAD and are missing their top 2 cornerbacks for the first part of the season. So while everyone looks to stack the Cardinals, I will be getting my shares of the Detroit offense. To me, it’s not a matter of IF the Lions put up points, it’s a matter of whether it’s on the ground or through the air.

RUNNING BACK

Matt Breida ($4,000), San Francisco 49ers at Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Jerick McKinnon is down, leaving Matt Breida as the 1b to Coleman’s 1a. Coach Shanahan has coordinated numerous offenses that supported two viable fantasy RB’s. Let’s add a JUICY week 1 meeting with the Tampa Bay Bucs pushing an over/under around 50 points. Don’t forget Jimmy G. is coming off a torn ACL, I fully anticipate the 49ers leaning heavily on their running game. Last but not least, Tampa was #31 DVOA against the run last year. This is a recipe for fantasy success. I’m sure more value will open up as we draw closer to week 1 but Matt Breida will remain firmly in the conversation as the best point per dollar play.

WIDE RECEIVER

Curtis Samuel ($4,200), Carolina Panthers vs. Los Angeles Rams

All aboard the Curtis Samuel hype train. I am your conductor! Like you have probably heard a million times this offseason, Mr. Samuel is a prime breakout candidate in season-long fantasy leagues. I think the breakout starts in week 1 and for DFS purposes, we get our hands at probably his lowest price of the season. Starting in week 12 last year, when Curtis saw more than 80% of the teams snap shares, he averaged 11.6 FFPG on DraftKings. The floor is 3X the value with upside for MUCH more facing a Rams team (that has a good defense on paper) that Vegas projects to be one of the highest-scoring games of Week 1.

David Moore ($3,500), Seattle Seahawks vs. Cincinnati Bengals

The D.K. Metcalf injury opened value at the #2 WR pass-catcher position for the Seahawks. While this isn’t a glamorous pick, the value at $3,500 is too great to ignore. Add to this a Bengals defense which was ranked #25 DVOA against the pass (and #28 against #2 WR’s) and I anticipate David Moore returning value at his bottom-barrel price tag.

TIGHT END

Hunter Henry ($3,900), Los Angeles Chargers vs. Indianapolis Colts

More value will probably open up as we get closer to kick-off weekend. Hunter Henry is the 7^th most expensive TE on DraftKings which I don’t think necessarily screams VALUE. However, I do think this is one of the lowest prices we will see Hunter all year. If Andrew Luck is healthy, I fully anticipate this game to be high scoring, back and forth affair. It doesn’t hurt that the Colts were also #29 against TE’s last year either.

DEFENSE/SPECIAL TEAMS

Detroit Lions ($2,900) at Arizona Cardinals

First article and already breaking my rule of only playing home team defenses on DraftKings. However, I think this is a great spot to be contrarian when building your lineups. The Arizona Cardinals hype machine is out of control at the moment and I fully anticipate a Cardinals Stack to be one of the more popular plays in GPP’s. Playing the Lions defense is a great chance to get some leverage on this situation. As we saw in week 2 of the preseason, the Cardinals offense is going to be prone to giving up plenty of turnovers and sacks as they try to bring the Air Raid to the NFL.

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