Fantasy Football Bounceback Candidate: A.J. Green
WR A.J. Green (Cincinnati Bengals)
2019 Stats: Did Not Play
2018 Stats: 46 receptions for 694 yards, 6 TD
From 2011-2017, A.J. Green topped 1,000 yards in six of seven seasons with a finish as a top-10 fantasy wide receiver (standard scoring) four times. If he had played more than 10 games in 2016, he would have easily made in 7-for-7 (66 receptions for 964 yards, on 100 targets). He started 2018 on a pretty typical pace, with 45 catches for 687 yards and six touchdowns over the first eight games. But a sprained big toe in Week 8 effectively ended his season, besides what was probably an ill-advised and brief return in Week 13.
With ample time to recover from surgery to fix his toe, Green (and his potential fantasy managers) entered 2019 with solid hopes for a bounce back. Then he suffered an ankle injury on the first day of training camp, had surgery and as lingering hopes of a return faded he ultimately missed the entire season. A 2-14 Bengals team was surely a factor in Green not playing unless he was absolutely 100 percent. Seeing overmatched rookie Ryan Finley get practice reps as the starter the week it seemed he might return also was not helpful in regard to Green suiting up.
Optimistic fantasy owners may have drafted Green in August last year (guilty), on the idea even half a season of him would produce value at the reduced cost. Until he was finally put on IR, it was hard to drop him if you were in a deep league.
Green will now play the 2020 season on the franchise tag, as expected. The Bengals are getting a theoretical upgrade under center in No. 1 overall pick Joe Burrow, and there’s sneaky potential (fantasy or otherwise) throughout the Cincinnati offense (Joe Mixon, Tyler Boyd, etc.). As long as he is on the field, Green will benefit from the talent around him.
And there’s the trouble. Green has played 10 or fewer games in three of the last four seasons, and he’ll turn 32 on July 31. His recent series of lower body injuries invites risk of injury or re-injury, and he has not played anywhere near a full game since October of 2018.
Green’s ADP, via Fantasy Football Calculator (12-team leagues), is at WR28 (pick 6.06) in full PPR, WR22 (pick 5.04) in standard scoring and WR26 (pick 5.12) in half-PPR. WR3 range is palatable on the risk/reward scale, but any push into WR2 territory crosses a line.
If the expectation is for Green to be a fantasy WR1 again in 2020, be ready for a let down. But a finish as a WR2 is in the realistic range of possibilities, with the prospect of a trade to a contender that shouldn’t be dismissed.
2020 Projection: 65 receptions for 790 yards, 7 TD
Bounceback Confidence: 50%
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