Fantasy Football Bounceback Candidate: Ben Roethlisberger
QB Ben Roethlisberger (Pittsburgh Steelers)
2019 Stats: 351 passing yards, 1 INT (2 games)
The 2019 campaign started poorly for the Steelers and Ben Roethlisberger, with a Week 1 loss to the New England Patriots. Then Roethlisberger suffered an elbow injury in Week 2, he had surgery and missed the rest of the season.
Roethlisberger led the league in passing yards (5,129), completions (452) and attempts (675) in 2018, with 34 touchdowns (fifth in the league), a league-high 16 interceptions and a 67 percent completion rate. He finished as the QB3 in fantasy.
Most TDs on throws 20+ yards downfield in 2018:
➤ Ben Roethlisberger – 15 👀
➤ Patrick Mahomes II – 15
➤ Russell Wilson – 15 pic.twitter.com/mrJHPWMDk6
— PFF PIT Steelers (@PFF_Steelers) July 10, 2020
Roethlisberger is 38 years old, coming off a major arm injury. He has also played all 16 games just once in the last five seasons (2018), and he has played all 16 just four times in his entire career.
All signs point to Roethlisberger being recovered from his elbow surgery. But the residual effect on his arm strength can’t be known until he gets game action, and it’s safe to say the Steelers would like to have a more balanced offense than they did in 2018. Having one of the league’s best defenses will help create neutral game scripts. But if part of this note from Graham Barfield of Fantasy Points holds up, close games may not matter.
Back in 2018 when Ben Roethlisberger was healthy, the Steelers were the most pass-heavy team when the game was within a score (66.4%) and they were No. 1 in pass rate when trailing (81.5%).
4th round JuJu is stealing.
— Graham Barfield (@GrahamBarfield) July 1, 2020
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The Steelers have a deep set of skill position talent. James Conner leads the running back stable, but rookie Anthony McFarland joins Benny Snell and Jaylen Samuels on the depth chart. JuJu Smith-Schuster will be looking to rebound after an injury-dampened 2019, as Diontae Johnson and James Washington shape a solid trio. Free agent signing Eric Ebron will join Vance McDonald at tight end. Rookie wide receiver Chase Claypool is also in the mix.
Roethlisberger has been a useful fantasy quarterback his entire career when healthy. His current ADP, via Fantasy Football Calculator, is in the QB2 range (QB16 in full PPR, QB19 in standard) late in the 11th round of 12-team leagues. Given the boom or bust risk, that ADP is about perfect.
A favorable-looking schedule from Week 1-4 (New York Giants, Denver Broncos, Houston Texans and Tennessee Titans) should allow Roethlisberger to ease in and shake off some rust. But his 2020 projection has to have missed time in it, be it within games a few times or ultimately a couple full games.
What a bounce back for Big Ben looks like this year is a pretty subjective threshold. The most cut-and-dry mark is top-12 (a starter in one-quarterback leagues), and I can’t get there very confidently.
2020 Projection: 3,885 passing yards, 27 touchdowns, 14 interceptions; 42 rushing yards, 1 TD
Bounceback Confidence: 35%
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