Fantasy Football Bounceback Candidate: Jared Goff

QB Jared Goff (Los Angeles Rams)

2019 Stats: 4,638 passing yards, 22 touchdowns, 16 INT; 2 rush TD

After stepping out of the Jeff Fisher quagmire with Sean McVay as his head coach, Jared Goff was QB12 in fantasy in 2017. He took another step in 2018, throwing for over 4,600 yards with 32 touchdowns and 12 interceptions on his way to finishing as QB7.

Goff threw for almost as many yards last year (4,638) as 2018 (4,688). But his touchdown total dropped to 22, as his interceptions rose to 16. A league-high 626 pass attempts fostered the yardage output, and everything else was worse. Goff finished as QB13 (QB15 through Week 16).

Four games against tough pass defenses were particularly ugly for Goff (one point for every 25 passing yards, -2 points for turnovers).
Week 6 vs. 49ers: 13-for-24 for 78 yards, 1 lost fumble: 1.12 fantasy points
Week 10 at Steelers: 22-for-41 for 243 yards, 2 INT, 1 lost fumble: 3.72 fantasy points
Week 11 vs. Bears: 11-for-18 for 173 yards, 1 INT: 5.22 fantasy points
Week 12 vs. Ravens: 26-for-37 for 212 yards, 2 INT: 4.38 fantasy points

In his other 12 outings, Goff averaged 20.8 fantasy points per game. Among quarterbacks for the full season, that would have been tied for eighth-best with Drew Brees.

Over his final five games last season, including Week 17, Goff averaged 329 passing yards per game with 11 touchdowns (multiple in all five) and four interceptions (multiple in one). In Week 13-16, clipping off a meaningless Week 17 for a lot of fantasy owners, he was QB10. Put Week 17 back in, and he was QB6 from Week 13-17.

The Rams defense lost some notable pieces, and the schedule will be softer for Goff this year. Last year, according to numberFire, his rate of dropbacks against bottom-20 pass defenses was the second lowest among starting quarterbacks (ahead of only Baker Mayfield).

Goff will need volume to reach good numbers, as 2017 and 2018’s efficiency is not coming back. He might not lead the league in attempts again, but a push toward (and past) 600 to a place among the league leaders is in the cards.

Goff’s letdown last year has pushed his ADP down. In 12-team standard leagues, he’s currently QB16 (pick 10.12) and a shift to full PPR drops him to QB21 pick 13.07). A QB2 by ADP with top-10 upside, plain and simple. That value, which should pretty much hold, makes it easier to bet on a rebound for the former No. 1 pick.

2020 Projection: 4,650 yards, 27 touchdowns, 14 INT, 2 rushing TD

Bounceback Confidence Level: 80%

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