Fantasy Football Division Previews – AFC EAST

Intro

1. New England Patriots  13-3
2. Buffalo Bills 9-7
3. Miami Dolphins 6-10
4. New York Jets 5-11

The AFC East is highly skewed towards valuing the New England Patriots, after that, the talent level drops off significantly. For the 2017 season, the Pats ranked second in all of the NFL for points per game at 28.95. The other three teams all fell under the league average mark of 21.8 pts/per game and were amongst the ten worst scoring offenses in the league. New York Jets(18.62), Buffalo Bills(17.94), Miami Dolphins(17.56).

Plenty of roster changes on all four teams entering the 2018 season.

The Buffalo Bills, even though they finally snuck into the playoffs, are going with a different quarterback after Tyrod Taylor left for Cleveland. They acquired career back up QB from the Cincinnati Bengals, A.J.McCaron. They also took Josh Allen in the first round to compete and learn, he will get an opportunity if McCarron falters at all. Former Jet and Jaguar running back, Chris Ivory was brought in to take some of the load off lead back LeSean McCoy.

Another first round drafted QB will be in the mix for the New York Jets, Sam Darnold will back up 38-year-old Josh McCown. Teddy Bridgewater will also have a possible opportunity awaiting him as well. Wideout Terrell Pryor was brought over from Washington to add much-needed depth for the receiving core. The Tight End position will feature first-year rookie Chris Herndon.

The Miami Dolphins will welcome quarterback Ryan Tannehill to the signal caller position after missing the entire 2017 season. He will be without the services of top wideout/ possession receiver Jarvis Landry. To offset that loss the Dolphins acquired two lesser receiver talents in Danny Amendola(from New England) and Albert Wilson(From Kansas City). Rookie Mike Gesicki will get the nod to start at tight end.

Lots of noise coming from New England this offseason. The wideout position doesn’t look as deep as it has in the past. Brandin Cooks is gone, Julain Edelman will return after being shelved because of an ACL tear last year, but he faces a four-game ban for PED use. Jordan Matthews will step into a prominent role after being marginally used in Buffalo. The most noteworthy addition for the Pats will be first round pick, rookie running back Sony Michel.

Quarterbacks

QB ranks 2017

1. New England Patriots 6th
2. New York Jets 21st
3. Miami Dolphins 22nd
4. Buffalo Bills 27th

Tom Brady (NE)

Why is that Tom Brady finds himself outside of the top-tier quarterbacks. This year he might get overlooked even more as his core receiving group looks to be one of the least impressive in recent memory. Honestly, though, the way Brady spreads his targets over the field to backs, tight ends and slots, owners should feel good that a floor for Brady at seasons end should be in the neighborhood of 4,000 to 4,500 yards passing, 35 touchdowns and very limited number of interceptions.

Jets QBs/ Bills QBs/ Ryan Tannehill(MIA)

I’ve grouped together the rest of the division as they all can easily be overlooked, as they should be, streaming based on matchup will be the only time they should deserve your attention. Two of the more interesting players from this group might not even see the playing field, even if they do, both first-round picks, Sam Donald and Josh Allen will be very limited with what they can do as they try to grasp the playbook and build chemistry with their teammates.

 

 

Running Backs

Running Back ranks 2017

1. NE 2nd
2. Buf 17th
3. NYJ 21st
4. MIA 31st

Sony Michel(NE)

There hasn’t been this much buzz for a rookie running back for the Pats since Steven Ridley. Even though we should get excited as Michel will provide big play ability, we need to remember this is a Bill Bellichek run offense. Rex Burkhead will be around to steal lots of goal line and short yardage situations. And don’t forget about pass catching specialist James White.

LeSean McCoy (BUF)

McCoy continues to be a consistent back as he averaged a 4th best 5.3 yards per carry. This year the forecast, although still good, maybe we will see defenses be able to keep the running game more honest. Gone is the versatile and mobile QB, Tyrod Taylor. This may make the run to the tailback more predictable and defenses will be able to key in on and focus directly on McCoy without worrying about the threat of a quarterback that is a threat in the running game as well as through the air.

Kenyon Drake/Frank Gore (MIA)

Drake could be a viable RB 2 or 3 but his value will be diminished by the arrival of the reliable veteran Frank Gore. Even though the Dolphins ranked 31st in the run game, Drake amassed a very respectful 17.1 points per game after the Jay Ajayi trade. Gore is the definition of reliable and ended up as the number 20 back when all was said and done. This situation really appears to be a 50/50 split situation.

Wide Receiver

Wide Receiver Ranks 2017

1. MIA 2nd
2. NE 16th
3. NYJ 23rd
4. BUF last

Devante Parker (MIA)

Parker stands to benefit from the departure of Jarvis Landry, even still, he is only pegged as number 812 in average draft position. As a replacement for Landry the Dolphins bring in veterans Danny Amendola and Albert Wilson to give Tannehill as many viable proven targets as possible.

Chris Hogan/ Julian Edelman (NE)

Edelman easily stands out as the best receiver, especially PPR, he will miss the first 4 games due to suspension. Once he returns he should be a target monster for Brady. Chris Hogan might benefit the most from a receiving group that will get tons of looks in this pass-heavy offense. He was very good last year before hurting his shoulder. If any injury occurs, look for Malcolm Mitchell to step in seamlessly.

Quincy Anewa (NYJ)/ Robby Anderson (NYJ)/ Kelvin Benjamin(BUF)

Anderson was very efficient for Todd Bowels offense garnering 23% of targets last season, with Quincy Anewa back and healthy those targets shouldn’t be as plentiful making the Jet receiving core less than appealing. Kelvin Benjamin still hasn’t met expectations after having only one solid season to date. Going from Cam Newton to A.J. McCarron is likely going to increase the likelihood of another disappointing season.

Tight Ends

Tight End Ranks 2017

1. NE 4th
2. BUF 12th
3. MIA 26th
4. NYJ 29th

Rob Gronkowski (NE)

With all the talk that Gronkowski may retire after the end of the 2018 season, we really should appreciate how great and dominant a player this is. If healthy, this is still a player that can not be denied. When there is a battle for a ball, yardage to attain points to score, Gronk can be counted on. The Patriots will score at will again this season, and if their dominant tight end is on the field it will be easy pickings.

Mike Gesicki (MIA)

A 6’5″ product out of Penn State, the Dolphins are visioning that this will be a reliable target over the middle for Ryan Tannehill. Out of all tight ends drafted this season, Gesicki might be in the best situation. Gone is the reliable Jarvis Landry, so Tannehill will have to look somewhere for an outlet he can count on.

Charles Clay (BUF)

With a receiving core that ranked last in the NFL last season, the new Bills signal-caller will have to direct his attention somewhere. Where better then to target the reliable Charles Clay. Around 50 receptions and 5 touchdowns seem like a realistic benchmark for the 7-year vet.

Recap

There may not be a division dominated so much by one team than the AFC East. After Brady and company, the talent resources for your fantasy teams drops off significantly. New talents will emerge eventually, and there is sure to be some hidden gems, but for the time being all the attention should be focused on the powerful New England Patriots.

 

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