Fantasy Football: Week 10 Start n Sits

Teams on a bye this week: Kansas City Chiefs, Atlanta Falcons, Dallas Cowboys and New York Jets

THURSDAY NIGHT GAME

INDIANAPOLIS COLTS @ TENNESSEE TITANS, 48.5 O/U, TITANS 2.5 FAVORITE

START: TIGHT END, JONNU SMITH, TITANS: The Colts defense keeps the ball in front of them, i.e. they are not going to give away the deep passes. They are giving up only 23 passing plays of 20 yards or more and only two passing plays of 40 yards or more. Enter Smith. Out of 533 offensive snaps, Smith has been on the field for 407 of them. That includes being on the field for 95% of snap counts Week 9 and 81% of the snap counts Week 8. His yards per reception is 12.67, and while Anthony Firkser has out targeted him in the last two games (9-4), Smith has out produced. Smith’s stat line for the last two weeks is 4-61-1, while Firkser is 7-55.

The Titans have shortened their air attack over the past three games. For the first five games they were averaging 7.6 yards per attempt; they are now averaging 6.9 yards per attempt. This and Smith will slide into the Colts bend but don’t break defense.

SLEEPER: QUARTERBACK, PHILIP RIVERS, COLTS: It is hard to depend on the erratic nature that is Rivers play, especially on a Thursday Night game. But this is a case where Rivers may be forced to chuck the ball and the plus is that the Titans have the sixth-lowest pressure rate (18.7%) on quarterbacks, giving Rivers a little more time to clean up his propensity to throw interceptions.

SIT: RUNNING BACK, D’ONTA FOREMAN, TITANS: Foreman was a waiver wire pick-up on a team that runs the ball the fifth most in the league (47.95%), on the belief that you cannot solely rely on Derrick Henry. But last week Foreman was only on the field for 15% of the offensive snaps. This week the Titans will go up against the third-ranked run defense that is only giving up an average of 83.6 rushing yards a game. Henry will get his as the Colts have yielded 110, 98 and 124 rushing yards respectively, there just isn’t enough to go around.

SUNDAY EARLY GAMES

TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS @ CAROLINA PANTHERS, 50.5 O/U, BUCS 5.5 FAVORITE

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START: RUNNING BACK, LEONARD FOURNETTE, BUCS: This is a rematch of Week 2 meeting that the Bucs won 31-17. In that game, Fournette had 12 rushes for 103 yards and two touchdowns. Ronald Jones also had a touchdown in that game on seven carries and 23 yards. It is just really hard to trust Jones or Bruce Arians’ leaving Jones in the game.

We all saw the New Orleans Saints decimate the Bucs Sunday night. This should be a game the Bucs rely first on gashing the Panthers’ run defense that has allowed 114.3 rushing yards and the fourth-most fantasy points per game to the running back position.

SLEEPER: QUARTERBACK, TOM BRADY, BUCS: Not sure if it is fair to call Brady a sleeper, but after a zero touchdown, three-interception, three-sack performance against the Saints, Sunday it is understandable if he is on the cusp of avoidance. This should not be the game to sit him. It is unlikely that Brady will turn in two dud performances back-to-back. In their first meeting (which was his second game with a new team) he went 23-of-35, 217 yards, one touchdown and one interception.

The Panthers have just surrendered 372 passing yards and four passing touchdowns to Patrick Mahomes last week. Look for Brady and the Bucs to erase Week 9 from the collective memory with a solid win here.

SIT: RUNNING BACK, MIKE DAVIS, PANTHERS: Even if Christian McCaffrey is unable to go, Davis is not the play against the number one ranked run defense. The Bucs are only allowing opposing teams 77.9 average yards on the ground. Davis started out hot but he hasn’t seen the end zone in three games and has not rushed for more than 70 yards in those outings either. While he has been targeted multiple times he has not had more than 20 receiving yards. And McCaffrey against the Bucs in averaging 62.7 yards from scrimmage. It is unlikely with or without Davis will top that.

**McCaffrey has been ruled out for Week 10** per CBSSPORTS.COM

HOUSTON TEXANS @ CLEVELAND BROWNS, 52 O/U, BROWNS 3 FAVORITE

START: RUNNING BACK, NICK CHUBB, BROWNS: Chubb is reportedly coming off IR for the game (if he doesn’t start Kareem Hunt). The Texans are the worst defense against the run giving up 159.5 average yards per game. The Browns are eighth in rushing attempts per game (29.8) and fifth in rushing yards per game (150).

SLEEPER: WIDE RECEIVER, BRANDIN COOKS, TEXANS: The Browns are giving up the third-most fantasy points to the wide receiver position (32.33). Cooks has been on the field for 88%, 81% and 91% of the offensive snaps in their last three games. His targets have remained consistent at nine in each of the last three games. In two of the last three games he has found the end zone and last week managed to add 83 receiving yards to the total.

If Myles Garrett and/or Olivier Vernon are able to apply consistent pressure to Deshaun Watson, look for him to make quick throws to Cooks and Randall Cobb. Cooks is the steadier presence in that scenario.

SIT: RUNNING BACK, DUKE JOHNSON, TEXANS: This is more of a temper your expectation sit. If David Johnson is unable to make concussion protocol, Duke Johnson is the only game in the backfield. That in itself is worthy of consideration for a start. Add to that his ability to be of service in the short passing game (see above) raises his floor. But keep in mind the Browns defense is 11th against the run holding opponents to 106.8 average rushing yards a game and 4.0 rushing yards per attempt.

Johnson is averaging 2.79 rushing yards per attempt and has had two fumbles on 34 rushing attempts.

WASHINGTON @ DETROIT LIONS

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START: RUNNING BACK, ANTONIO GIBSON, WASHINGTON: It is unclear who is going to be under center for Washington this week. If it is Alex Smith the floor for JD McKissic rises significantly as Smith targeted him 13 times when he entered the game last week. Either way both running backs should be in play against a Lions defense that gave up 275 rushing yards and three touchdowns to the running back position last week.

SLEEPER: TIGHT END, TJ HOCKENSON, LIONS: The Washington Football Team is surprisingly good against the wide receiver position allowing the fewest fantasy points to that position while being mediocre against the tight end position. Now that Kenny Golladay is out, Hockenson has stepped it up. Last week he was targeted eight times (second most on the team) for five receptions, 39 yards and a touchdown.

SIT: TIGHT END, LOGAN THOMAS, WASHINGTON: Thomas was on the field for 100% of the offensive snaps last week. He was targeted six times and finished with three receptions for 28 yards. Although he did not see a touchdown last week, he had one touchdown in the prior two weeks. The biggest obstacle is that the Lions are allowing the fourth fewest fantasy points to the tight end position (4.73)

JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS @ GREEN BAY PACKERS, 51 O/U, PACKERS 13 FAVORITE

START: RUNNING BACK, JAMES ROBINSON, JAGUARS: It appears the best hope for the Jaguars this game is to keep the ball out of the hand of Aaron Rodgers. Robinson was part of a similar plan last week carrying the ball 25 times for 99 yards and one touchdown. The Packers are giving up the third most fantasy points to the running back position (25.13) so if the Jaguars can keep from getting too far behind…

SLEEPER: TIGHT END, ROBERT TONYAN, PACKERS: Maybe Allen Lazard will be back this week. Definitely Davante Adams is there. But in a game that predicts the Packers to have at least four touchdowns, Tonyan is in play to get some of that action. Before giving up 27 points to the Texans last week, the Jaguars had surrendered at least 30 points in their last six games. They are also giving up the fourth most fantasy points to the tight end position.

SIT: WIDE RECEIVER, KEELAN COLE, JAGUARS: Cole targets for his last three games have been nine, two and two respectively. Last week with new quarterback Jake Luton under center he was targeted twice for one reception and six yards. This wasn’t a case of Luton not passing the ball, he had 38 pass attempts and finished with 304 yards, he was a case of not targeting Cole even after Laviska Shenault went down with an injury.

PHILADELPHIA EAGLES @ NEW YORK GIANTS, 44 O/U, EAGLES 3.5 FAVORITE

START: WIDE RECEIVER, TRAVIS FULGHAM, EAGLES: There is no question Carson Wentz has been a hot mess so far this season. Pro Football Focus has graded him in the bottom ten for quarterback completion percentage and yards per attempt. However, when he has been good it has been to Fulgham. Fulgham has one touchdown in five of the last six games. He has double digit targets in three of the last five games, and in the game against the Giants in Week 7, he led the team in targets with 11.

SLEEPER: RUNNING BACK, WAYNE GALLMAN, GIANTS: It is probably imperative that the Giants attempt to keep the ball out of the hands of Daniel Jones. Gallman has led all running backs in time on the field and it isn’t even close. He has had a touchdown in his last three games and while the Giants are averaging 106 rushing yards per game (21st) the Eagles are giving up 130.8 rushing yards per game (24th).

SIT: QUARTERBACK, DANIEL JONES, GIANTS: The Giants are losing close games and it isn’t the fault of the defense. Jones has been prone to turnovers in the most inconvenient times. He currently has nine interceptions and four lost fumbles. He has been sacked 28 times and has a completion percentage of 62.4%. The Eagles defense isn’t elite but in this game they might not need to be.

SUNDAY AFTERNOON GAMES

LOS ANGELES CHARGERS @ MIAMI DOLPHINS, 48 O/U, DOLPHINS 2.5 FAVORITE

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START: WIDE RECEIVER, MIKE WILLIAMS, CHARGERS: The Dolphins defense has been sneaky good in their last two games.  Chances are there is going to be a lot of focus on Keenan Allen in this game. Williams has the talent and ability he has until recently lacked the consistency.  He now has been targeted seven times in the last two games, both with five receptions and over 80 yards.  He also leads the team with seven end zone targets. 

SLEEPER: QUARTERBACK, TUA TAGOVAILOA, DOLPHINS: Tagovailoa is a sleeper because of the small sample size.  He is definitely trending up.  Last week in the shoot-out in the desert had had two passing touchdown on 248 passing yards and 35 rushing yards.  Now he will play the Chargers whose depleted secondary has allowed the fourth-most fantasy points to the quarterback position this season.   

SIT: RUNNING BACK, JORDAN HOWARD, DOLPHINS: Seriously if not for the touchdown last week, Howard would have been a bust.  He averaged 1.9 yards per carry on the team leading 10 carries.  So maybe he is good for that red zone carry…maybe?  As it was Salvon Ahmed and Tagovailoa both had less carries and more yardage than Howard. If your fantasy team is flushed enough you can depend on a touchdown dependent running back, Howard is your man.

BUFFALO BILLS @ ARIZONA CARDINALS, 56.5 O/U, CARDINALS 1.5 FAVORITE

START: RUNNING BACK, ZACK MOSS, BILLS: While the very large over/under prediction would lend you to fade the running backs in this game, keep in mind: Josh Allen likes to throw down the field, but it is his running backs (and himself that are getting in the end zone).  In his last six games Moss has 15 red-zone carries, nine of those were once the team got inside the 10-yard line.  Moss has three touchdowns in his last two games.  And in those two games he has been on the field for more snap counts than Singeltary (56%-46% and 53% to 48%).

SLEEPER: WIDE RECEIVER, CHRISTIAN KIRK, CARDINALS: The Buffalo defense and Tre’Davious White will be concerned with slowing down DeAndre Hopkins.  This leaves Kirk to do what he do, 5-123-1, and 5-37-2 in his last two games.  

SIT: WIDE RECEIVER, COLE BEASLEY, BILLS: If you know anything about me you know that this is painful.  But for whatever reason in the last two games Allen has not looked Beasley’s way.  After having 12 targets three weeks ago against the New York Jets, Beasley has been relegated to two targets against the New England Patriots and three targets in the shoot-out last week against the Seattle Seahawks.  In neither game did he eclipse 40 receiving yards or a touchdown.  Allen is utilizing his deep men Stefon Diggs and John Brown which currently leaves Beasley odd man out. 

DENVER BRONCOS @ LAS VEGAS RAIDERS, 50.5 O/U, RAIDERS 5 FAVORITE

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START: RUNNING BACK, PHILLIP LINDSAY, BRONCOS: The Broncos have been getting off to a slow start their last two games.  The running game has been less than adequate and the threat of running back by committee isn’t ideal.  But while Melvin Gordon was on the field for 60% of the offensive snaps to Lindsay’s 38% last week, Lindsay was more productive.  Lindsay had eight rushes for 23 yards and was targeted three times.  Gordon had six rushes for 18 yards with one target.  

What is more appealing is that the Raiders are giving up the second most fantasy points to the running back position (25.14).

SLEEPER: QUARTERBACK, DREW LOCK, BRONCOS: The slow start includes the quarterback play.  Lock has managed to have a horrendous first half only to finish Week 8 with three touchdowns and Week 9 with 313 passing yards and two touchdowns.  He also had 47 rushing yards and one rushing touchdown.  

The Raiders are giving up the sixth most fantasy points to the quarterback position (23.02).

SIT: RUNNING BACK, DEVONTAE BOOKER, RAIDERS: Don’t chase the points on this one.  The Broncos are allowing the second fewest fantasy points to the running back position (12.87).  They have only giving up four rushing touchdowns this season, one each to quarterbacks Cam Newton and Sam Darnold and one each to James Conner and Clyde Edwards-Helaire.

CINCINNATI BENGALS @ PITTSBURGH STEELERS, 47 O/U, STEELERS 7.5 FAVORITE

START: WIDE RECEIVER, TYLER BOYD, BENGALS: Boyd has 68 targets on the season.  He will be much utilized as Joe Burrow will go up against a front seven that sacks the quarterback 10.67% of the time (1st), while Burrow has been sacked 28 times.  

SLEEPER: RUNNING BACK, JOE MIXON, BENGALS: Mixon is predicted to be back on the field for this game (if not Giovanni Bernard is your sleeper) and none to soon.  It will be best for the Bengals if they can establish a run game against the Steelers who inexplicably gave up a combined 108 rushing yards to Tony Pollard and Ezekiel Elliott last week and 113 yards to JK Dobbins the week before.  

SIT: TIGHT END, DREW SAMPLE, BENGALS: In addition to being efficient in only one out of five games, the Steelers are giving up the fifth fewest fantasy points to the tight end position (5.23).

SEATTLE SEAHAWKS @ LOS ANGELES RAMS, 55.5 O/U, RAMS 2 FAVORITE

START: QUARTERBACK, JARED GOFF, RAMS: The Rams are coming off a bye week, giving them a week to prepare to go against the Seahawks porous defense.  Giving Sean McVay a week to scheme against a defense that is giving up a league high 455.8 yards a game should be criminal. 

SLEEPER: RUNNING BACK, CHRIS CARSON, SEAHAWKS: Carson should be making his return this game.  And while the situation in Seattle is still a “let Russ cook” kinda vibe going, they need Carson to help with time management.  Not only that but he has been productive in an offense that is pass first.  Carson does have 25 targets and three receiving touchdowns in addition to three rushing touchdowns and a 4.89 rushing average. 

SIT: RUNNING BACK, DARRELL HENDERSON, RAMS: Henderson is expected to be back this week from a quad injury.  That is good.  He is in a three-headed running back by committee backfield in LA, that is bad.  As bad as Seattle’s defense is against the pass they are pretty good against the run. 

SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS @ NEW ORLEANS SAINTS, 49.5 O/U, SAINTS 9 FAVORITE

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START: TIGHT END, JORDAN REED, 49ERS: The Niners are limping into this game with many injuries, however Reed is slated to return.  That is good news as the Saints are giving up the third most fantasy points to the tight end position (Sunday’s shellacking of Tampa Bay notwithstanding).  The problem with Reed has always been his ability to stay on the field.  The last we saw Reed he was on a snap count that limited his production.  Time and necessity should enable him to be a fantasy relevant this week. 

SLEEPER: QUARTERBACK, NICK MULLENS, 49ERS: Mullens is getting some of his weapons back this week, in addition to Reed, Brandon Aiyuk and Kendrick Bourne, Richie James proved to be valuable.  With the exception of the Thursday night mishap, Mullens has played well when called upon.  This week he goes against an improving Saints defense but one that is still giving up the fifth most fantasy points to the quarterback position. 

SIT: RUNNING BACK, JAMYCAL HASTY, 49ERS: He had his five minutes and for now they are up.  The Saints secondary can be had but their run defense is pretty stout, and that includes holding Ronald Jones and Leonard Fournette to a combined nine yards Sunday night. Hasty average 0.8 yards a carry against a Packers’ defense that was giving up the third most fantasy points to the running back position. 

SUNDAY NIGHT GAME

BALTIMORE RAVENS @ NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS 43 O/U, RAVENS 7 FAVORITE

START: RUNNING BACK, J.K. DOBBINS, RAVENS: The Ravens have the best rushing offense averaging 170.1 yards per game.  The Patriots rank 25th in rushing yards allowed per game giving up 131.  Dobbins has led the Ravens’ backfield in snap counts the last two weeks and it hasn’t been close (56% to 38% and 66% to 32%).  He also leads the backfield in targets with eight in his last three games to three for Gus Edwards in the last three games.  The Ravens will rely on their run offense and Dobbins has the highest floor. 

SLEEPER: RUNNING BACK, REX BURKHEAD, PATRIOTS: The Patriots were averaging 20.8 points per game (28th) until their Monday night meeting with the New York Jets.  The Ravens defense is much better than the Jets.  With Damien Harris potentially out with a chest/ankle injury, the Patriots are short on weapons.  Burkhead is the leading candidate to pick up the slack.  In Week 9 he rushed 12 times for 56 yards and a touchdown, while also being targeted three times.  

SIT: QUARTERBACK, CAM NEWTON, PATRIOTS: It appears that Newton is getting accustomed to the Patriots Way.  However, this year that includes being in short supply of viable options on the offense.  For the second time this season Newton passed for over 200 yards (the other time was against the Seattle Seahawks).  The Ravens have the 10th best defense against the pass allowing an average of 223.1 passing yards a game, a total that is skewed by Week 3 Patrick Mahomes’ 385 passing yards against them, and Week 4 Dwayne Haskins 314 garbage time yards against them. To be fantasy relevant in this game Newton will have to rely on his run game against the eighth best run defense. 

MONDAY NIGHT GAME

MINNESOTA VIKINGS @ CHICAGO BEARS  44.5 O/U, VIKINGS 3 FAVORITE

START: QUARTERBACK, NICK FOLES, BEARS: If there was a time for Foles to prove his worth it is now.  The Vikings secondary is decimated to  the tune of allowing 287.9 passing yards a game (30th).  Foles is coming into the contest having tossed two touchdowns in his last two games against both the Saints and the Titans.  The Vikings secondary is his get right back on track team.  If not now then when?

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SLEEPER: WIDE RECEIVER, DARNELL MOONEY, BEARS:  Mooney has been on the field for season total of 68% of the offensive snaps in Chicago.  He has been targeted at least five times in his last six games including 11 targets last week.  Now he will go against the Vikings who are giving up the second most fantasy points to the wide receiver position (32.82).  With Allen Robinson clearly the WR1 in Chicago, Mooney has currently eclipsed Anthony Miller for the WR2 spot.  The last two weeks have seen Mooney receive 87% of the snaps to Miller’s 69% and 93% of the snaps to Miller’s 76%. 

SIT: QUARTERBACK, KIRK COUSINS, VIKINGS: The Vikings have decided to put the season on the back of Dalvin Cook.  Smart move considering Cousins has the worst interception rate in the NFL.  He has had 4.78% of his passes intercepted, and that is on 209 passing attempts.  The Vikings rank last in passing attempts per game (26.1) and 10th in rushing attempts per game (29.4).  Chicago’s defense is seventh in passing yards allowed per game (218.2) and sixth in allowing the least amount of passing completions per game.  

Good Luck! Come talk at me on Twitter @neverenoughglt and get your last minute start and sit questions answered Sunday on GoingFor2Live Sunday War Room 1130am eastern on Twitter, Periscope, YouTube and Facebook. 

 

 

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