To be clear, these are not quarterbacks who will be a bust ( I hope). They are quarterbacks who are too expensive at their current redraft ADP. These five are going high, but their ceiling is considerably lower.
Current ADP courtesy of Fantasy Pros.
5. Patrick Mahomes, Kansas City Chiefs, current ADP QB2
Okay, so this is not a Patrick Mahomes hate rate…far from it. Mahomes is well Mahomes, and he will do (have to do) Mahomes-like things this year. But he will be doing them without Tyreek Hill.
So that is 34% of Mahomes fantasy points came from the Mahomes-Hill connection (in 55 regular season games). And last season alone, Hill accounted for 159 targets, a 25.1% target share, a 29.7% target rate, and 24 red zone targets. That’s a lot.
Then, there is the loss of “the others,” Demarcus Robinson, Byron Pringle, and Darrell Williams. The total loss on offense accounts for 307 targets. That’s a lot.
Betting against Mahomes is kind of sacrilegious, and I’m not. I’m just saying QB2 is a steep price to pay when I can get Justin Herbert (QB3) or Joe Burrow (QB6), or even Russell Wilson (QB10…who is painfully undervalued), all of who will come into the season with better weapons than is currently being offered in Kansas City.
The Chiefs have the fifth toughest schedule over their first eight games. So even if the acquisitions of JuJu Smith Schuster, Marquez Valdes-Scantling, Justin Watson, and Skyy Moore pan out, it will be tough going for all at first (unless you are name Travis Kelce).
4. Tom Brady, Tampa Bay Buccaneers, current ADP QB9
Tom Brady is currently being drafted ahead of Russell Wilson (QB10), Derek Carr (QB13), and Aaron Rodgers (QB12). Why? Sure, he is Tom “the Goat” Brady, and he had the most passing attempts (719) last season and averaged 22.75 fantasy points per game. And per ESPN, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers have the easiest strength of schedule for the 2022 season…but there is no Bruce Arians, no Ryan Jensen, a delayed Chris Godwin, and no safety net from Rob Gronkowski.
Brady is Brady, and like Mahomes, will do Brady-like things. But honestly, his ceiling is capped because of his inability to run. Yes, his floor is safe because of his arm and ability to throw, but I would rather have Wilson ( who is painfully undervalued) or Carr, who has a harder strength of schedule but better weapons at his disposal (especially with the addition of Davante Adams, a healthy Darren Waller, a motivated Josh Jacobs and a safety net named Hunter Renfrow).
3. Kyler Murray, Arizona Cardinals, Current ADP QB5
Kyler Murray is currently going ahead of Joe Burrow (QB6), Dak Prescott (QB7) and Jalen Hurts ((QB8)
I like Murray a lot. He has the arm strength and the running ability you look for in a fantasy quarterback. But Murray has also wilted down the stretch in his last two seasons.
This year, the Cardinals allowed Christian Kirk and Chase Edmonds to walk. That is 26.4% of last season’s targets, 28% of last season’s receiving yards, and 18.5% of last season’s receiving touchdowns gone.
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And then there is, of course, the six-game suspension DeAndre Hopkins will serve. In the nine games that Murray played with Hopkins last season, he averaged 24.9 fantasy points per game and 8.7 yards per attempt. In the final four weeks (when he was without Hopkins), he averaged 18.8 fantasy points per game and 6.3 yards per attempt.
The addition of Marquise “Hollywood” Brown should help, them being college teammates and all.
I would rather have Burrow, who actually got better as the season progressed and is blessed with a bevy of wide receiving options. Or Hurt, who has one of the easiest strength of schedules, newly acquired AJ Brown, and Hurts running ability (139 rushing attempts, 784 yards, 10 touchdowns).
2. Ryan Tannehill, Tennessee Titans, Current ADP QB23
Ryan Tannehill is currently being drafted ahead of Zach Wilson (QB24), Carson Wentz (QB25), and Jared Goff (QB28).
The Tennessee Titans ran the ball 48.78% of the time last season (2nd in the league). Tannehill attempted 31.1 passes per game (26th in the league) and passed for over 300 yards in only two games. And that was with Brown. Now he has neither Brown nor Julio Jones.
While last year’s version of Jones is not the player he once was, he was still responsible for a 15.9% target share, 48 targets, and 7 red zone targets in only 10 games played.
Brown led the team with 11 red zone targets and 105 targets. The next highest Titan wide receiver was Nick Westbrook-Ikhine, with 56 total targets and 10 red zone targets.
Tannehill did have the upside of seven rushing touchdowns last season. He rushed 55 times for 270 yards and averaged 4.9 yards a carry.
But make no mistake ,this team runs through Derrick Henry. Tannehill is a waiver wire addition. If you are waiting this long for a quarterback, Wilson has a higher ceiling (same low floor), and Wentz can be counted on to get you through a few weeks without completely destroying your fantasy season.
1. DeShaun Watson, Cleveland Browns, Current ADP QB19
Watson is currently being drafted ahead of Mac Jones (QB20), Matt Ryan (QB21), and Jameis Winston (QB22)
Why? While this may not be a great analysis, it is a question you must ask yourself if you are drafting Watson.
His suspension is sure to be substantial and Jones, Ryan, and Winston are all available for a lesser price.
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