Five QBs You Need to Draft This Fantasy Season

It is time to draft in our fantasy leagues. You will find that the first round is chalk, for the most part. There is always that one “devil may care” fantasy manager who goes for the unexpected, and maybe that’s you. It’s okay.

One of the most volatile positions is quarterback. Tell someone that Patrick Mahomes isn’t going to reach his ADP this season, and all hell breaks loose. 

This is slightly less of a mind meld. The first two are on *duh* status, but it never hurts to remind. The last three are quarterbacks you need to get at their current ADP or sooner if it looks like your league draft is making a run-on quarterback. They may very well win you your fantasy league. Remember your fantasy draft is won or lost in the mid-rounds. 

Five QBs You Need to Draft This Fantasy Season

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Josh Allen, Buffalo Bills

Allen is the consensus QB1 this season. He is going in the mid-second round in a 12-person league. 

This is a no-brainer. Don’t overthink it. The only reservation you should be having is whether there will be a regression with the loss of Brian Daboll. But even that shouldn’t worry you (too much). And here is why:

2021 stats: 645 passing attempts (fourth most in the league); 2.04 pace of play (11^th in the league); 80 deep ball attempts (third in the league); 42.5% deep ball completion percentage (ninth in the league); 129 red zone passing attempts (first in the league); and 56.6% red zone completion percentage (18^th in the league).

Yes, that red zone completion percentage could be a little higher, but with all those attempts, I am willing to risk it. And we haven’t even got to the best of his 2021 stats yet. 

2021 rushing stats: 122 rushing attempts (third in the league); 32 red zone carries (first in the league); and six rushing touchdowns (third in the league).

When you are talking dual-threat quarterback, look no further. 

But most importantly, except for Cole Beasley, Allen has his weapons from last season. And now they have added James Cook and Jamison Crowder a little less enthusiastically. 

Fantasy Pros list Allen’s strength of schedule as the 16^th hardest for quarterbacks. Here are his first nine opponents and the average points they gave up to quarterbacks last year.

TEAM	AVG FANTASY POINTS/GAME	AVG DK POINTS/GAME	AVG FD POINTS/GAME
@ LAR	15.2	17.5	16.3
v. TENNESSEE	17.5	19.5	18.5
@MIAMI	15.5	17.3	16.3
@BALTIMORE	19.1	20.9	19.6
v. PITTSBURGH	16.4	17.7	17.1
@ KANSAS CITY	19.4	21.3	20.3
v. GREEN BAY	17.5	19.3	18.5
@NYJ	19.1	20.3	19.5
v. MINNESOTA	18.2	20.5	19.1

So, you see, it won’t be completely smooth sailing for Allen for the first half of the season, but this is Allen we are talking about. If his running potential is capped, he still has the rocket arm, Stefon Diggs, Gabe Davis, and Dawson Knox. 

You’re going to be okay.

Justin Herbert, Los Angeles Chargers

This should be equally apparent. Herbert finished last season as QB2. He is currently going QB3 and overall as the 36th pick, meaning early third round in a 12-person league. 

There is always that one or two persons worried about regression. Herbert said to hold his beer (is he old enough to drink)? Anyway, this will be his third season. He was QB9 in fantasy in his first season and won Offensive Rookie of the Year. Last season he was QB3, and let’s just see those stats.

2021 stats: 672 passing attempts (second in the league); 2.19 pace of play (third in the league); 71 deep ball attempts (ninth in the league); 43.7% deep ball completion percentage (fifth in the league); 112 red zone attempts (fifth in the league); 57.1% red zone completion percentage (16^th in the league).

Yes, his red zone completion percentage is 1.1% higher than Allen’s, which still puts him in the meh category. But when the Chargers are playing at the third highest pace in the league, I will take my chances again.

Herbert isn’t known as a natural dual-threat quarterback. He does his best work when he is standing in a clean pocket and chucking the ball downfield. His throwing percentage from a clean pocket is 70.4% (14^th) compared to 41.3% (22^nd) when pressured. But his rushing stats weren’t all that bad last season.

2021 stats: 63 rushing attempts (ninth); 23 red zone carries (third); 302 rushing yards (10^th); and three rushing touchdowns (ninth).

This season he will have the same head coach and offensive coordinator. He will also have the same supporting cast minus Jared Cook. However, Cook is being replaced by Gerald Everett. For a younger, better yard after catch red zone threat. 

Herbert’s First Nine Games 2022 Season

TEAM	AVG FANTASY POINTS/G	AVG DK POINTS/G	AVG FD POINTS/G
RAIDERS	17.3	18.7	17.6
@ CHIEFS	19.4	21.3	20.3
JAGUARS	17.8	19.0	18.1
@ TEXANS	17.5	19.5	19.6
@ BROWNS	16.1	17.4	16.8
BRONCOS	15.2	16.7	16.0
SEAHAWKS	16.9	18.6	17.6
@ FALCONS	19.6	20.6	20.2
@ NINERS	17.3	18.6	17.9

Herbert’s offensive line is ranked 12^th in Pro Football Focus line rankings and has a 17^thpass blocking grade. They will be returning four of the five starters for a little more offensive continuity. 

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Jalen Hurts, Philadelphia Eagles

I am not going to throw first-game preseason stats at you. But if I did, I would mention 6-of-6, 80 yards, and a touchdown. But you know, since preseason doesn’t matter, I won’t say anything.

I will say that the Eagles acquired the services of wide receiver AJ Brown this season. Add him to second-year wide receiver Devonta Smith and tight end Dallas Goedert, and you would have to say that Hurt’s weapons got an upgrade. 

And there is the number one ranked offensive line according to Pro Football Focus. This is shaping up rather well. 

2021 stats: 432 passing attempts (21^st); 2.02 pace of play (12^th); 62 deep ball attempts (15^th); 38.7% deep ball completion percentage (17^th); 54 red zone attempts (22^nd); 59.3% red zone completion percentage (12^th)

Those stats help put Hurts as QB9. Now he has AJ Brown added, and it raises his floor. But let’s be serious. What really raises his ceiling is his rushing ability. Hurts is the quintessential dual-threat quarterback. 

2021 stats: 140 rushing attempts (first); 9.3 carries per game (second); 31 red zone carries (second); 782 rushing yards (first); and 10 rushing touchdowns (first)

And the best part is none of this is going to change. The Eagles rushed on 48.97% of their offensive plays last season (first in the league) and were second in the league in rushing attempts (31.5). Unlike Buffalo, where there is talk of “limiting” the quarterback’s runs, the Eagles appear content with letting Hurt impact the game with his legs and arm. You should be content also. 

Hurt is currently going as QB8 and 65-67 overall. If you can sneak in and grab him in the late fifth round or early sixth round…just do it. 

Hurt’s First Nine Opponents 2022

TEAM	AVG FANTASY POINTS/G	AVG DK POINTS/G	AVG FD POINTS/G
@ Lions	17.8	19.3	18.5
Vikings	18.2	20.5	19.1
@ Washington	21.5	23.1	22.2
Jaguars	17.8	19.0	18.1
@ Cardinals	16.3	17.8	17.1
Cowboys	15.9	18.7	17.4
Steelers	16.4	17.7	17.1
@ Texans	17.5	19.5	18.6
Washington	21.5	23.1	22.2

Five of their first nine games are against teams that were ranked in the bottom eighth in fantasy points allowed to the quarterback. According to Fantasy Pros, hurt is also predicted to have the third easiest strength of schedule for a quarterback.

Derek Carr, Las Vegas Raiders

It’s a cliché to say that Carr is an underrated quarterback. Everyone knows that. Last season he finished as QB13. That was with all the shit that went down in Vegas. 

He is currently going as QB15 and in the middle of the 10^th round overall. That is woefully low. That is currently behind Trey Lance (QB13), Kirk Cousins (QB14), and Kyler Murray (QB5), so you are sure Murray will hold up a whole season and manage to navigate six games without DeAndre Hopkins? I digress. 

The Raiders added Davonte Adams. You know the guy who helped propel Aaron Rodgers to two MVPs? So now Carr has Adams, Darren Waller, Hunter Renfrow, and a motivated Josh Jacobs in his arsenal. You don’t think that is going to bump him to the top 10?

2021 stats: 626 passing attempts (fifth); 1.99 pace of play (16^th); 77 deep ball attempts (fifth); 36.4% deep ball completion percentage (22^nd); 86 red zone attempts (10^th); and a 55.8% red zone completion percentage (19^th)

Carr is not a dual-threat quarterback. You are not depending on his running skills to raise his ceiling. That is what Adams in here for. 

2021 stats: 40 rushing attempts (21^st); eight red zone carries (22^nd); and 108 rushing yards (28^th)

Like I said, his running ability isn’t going to raise his ceiling much, but it won’t lower his floor below QB13. And now, with Adams in the fold, that should substantially raise.

Carr’s  First Nine Opponents 2022

TEAM	AVG FANTASY POINTS/G	AVG DK POINTS/G	AVG FD POINTS/G
@ Chargers	17.1	18.6	17.6
Cardinals	16.3	17.8	17.1
@ Titans	17.5	19.5	18.5
Broncos	15.2	16.7	16.
@ Chiefs	19.4	21.3	20.3
Texans	17.5	19.5	18.6
@ Saints	15.4	17.4	16.6
@ Jaguars	17.8	19.0	18.1
Colts	17.5	19.2	18.6

Per Fantasy Pros, Carr has the fourth hardest schedule for a quarterback. Thankfully he is in the Wild West division, where there will be plenty of shoot-outs, and did I mention he now has Adams (Davante)?

DO NOT FORGET…

I  would be remiss if I did not mention the one quarterback who I believe is woefully under-valued this season, Mr. Russell Wilson. Wilson finished last season as QB16. He is currently going as QB11, behind Murray, Patrick Mahomes, and Aaron Rodgers. All of whom he has better weapons. And two of whom he may accumulate more rushing yardage. 

This is just friendly reminder friends don’t let friends skip on Wilson.  

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