Free DFS FanDuel NFL Cash Game Lineup for Week 4 (10/01/17)

Every week during the NFL season, I’ll be sharing my FanDuel cash game (50/50’s, Double Ups and Head to Head) line up. Cash games are a great way to build up your bankroll without as much risk as Guaranteed Prize Pool (GPP) tournaments.

For those unfamiliar with cash games, roster construction differs in some ways than GPPs. In GPPs, our line up needs to finish in the top 15% or so to simply cash, so we’re looking for those boom or bust players to roster with our studs, to stay under the salary cap. In cash games, we merely have to finish in the top 45-50% with a score of about 120, which usually gets us there, so we look to replace those boom or bust layers with much safer players, who may lack the high ceiling to help win a GPP who can be reasonably expected to return 2X value (if a player’s salary is $6,000, then we’d need him to score 12 fantasy points).

Before I get into my LU for the week, some general thoughts going into Week2:

• We’re getting to that point in the season that we have some data, but it’s still an extremely small sample size. Remember, when doing your research to not just use this sample but include last year’s data and historical trends, to get a more complete picture.
• There’s a term called “regression to the mean,” which basically means if you start out extremely hot, you’ll cool off and vice versa. An example would be Todd Gurley, who currently has 6 total TDs scored on the season. He’s not going to score 32 TDs this season, regression will be coming.

The blocks I like to check for my QB include a good match up with a bottom 10 pass defense, a high Vegas implied total and for him to be on the team that is the slight favorite.  Ideally, we want a mobile QB, as those rushing yards provide a nice floor. Finally, check the weather reports for strong winds or torrential rains.

QB Tyrod Taylor ($7,100) Taylor’s stats haven’t been great, but he’s played against the Jets, Panthers and Broncos in close, run heavy games. Now he faces the Falcons, a team averaging 29 points a game. Opposing QBs, in fact throw 45 passes a game against them, tops in the NFL. Taylor, who’s only attempted 79 passes, should see a huge usage boost.

At the RB position, I’m looking for most of the same blocks to check.  I’m also looking for a three down back, but they’re becoming rare and are usually expensive, so I often settle for a two down back (but not a committee RB) who also handles short yardage duties.

RB Leonard Fournette ($7,700) Fournette has 57 carries and 12 targets through his first three games, which is huge. In fact, only four rookie RBs have started their careers with those totals. The Jets played well after being embarrassed the week before, but are still just ranked 25th against the run by Football Outsiders.

RB Dalvin Cook ($7,500) Cook takes Fournette’s numbers and builds on them with 61 carries and 13 targets. Cook is Football Outsider’s #4 ranked rusher (and #1 Kareem Hunt isn’t on this slate), but he’s only the 8th highest priced RB. That and his involvement in the passing game make him a good bet to return value.

For WRs, I’m looking for the same things I’m looking for in my QB, but I’m looking for them to be slight underdogs. I also look for a receiver who’s the QBs #1 target. Targets lead to points, so the best way to ensure your receivers return value is to ensure they get plenty of opportunities. I also avoid rookies until they prove themselves. Coaches are conservative and a rookie has to earn the coach’s trust to make it onto the field and then earn the QB’s trust to start getting targets.

WR DeAndre Hopkins ($7,300) Hopkins is the NFL leader in targets over Antonio Brown (37 to 36) yet Hopkins is $1,900 cheaper. WR Will Fuller is expected to return for Houston, which should draw coverage. He’ll face a bad Tennessee Titans defense, which is ranked 24th against the pass by F.O.

WR Keenan Allen ($7,300) Allen is averaging nearly 10 targets a game and really serves to lift the Chargers offense, QB Phillip Rivers averages over 50 more passing yards with Allen on the field. He’ll match up against the Eagles, who just allowed 366 passing yards to Eli Manning and have allowed the most completions to opposing WRs in the NFL this season.

WR Larry Fitzgerald ($6,700) Fitzgerald is third in the NFL in targets and is coming off a monster 13-149-1 game against Dallas (his salary would be higher if that game hadn’t been held Monday night.) He’ll be going against 49ers slot CB K’Waun Williams, who has been targeted more than any other slot CB in the NFL, while Fitzgerald leads the NFL in slot targets.

Statistics show that TEs on teams favored at home, with a Vegas implied total of 22 or more points have the best chance to return the highest value.

TE Zach Ertz ($6,900) In Ertz’s last 12 games, he’s averaging 9.5 targets, 7 catches, 76 yards and nearly half a TD per game, which are huge numbers for a TE (even some #1 WRs would love those stats.) The Chargers are good against opposing WRs, ranking 12th overall against the pass. Their issue is over the middle, where they rank 31st vs opposing TEs.

Kickers are a crapshoot, but these four blocks will help tremendously: high Vegas total, favored to win (he’ll be more likely to kick 4^th quarter FGs if the team is winning rather than be sitting on the bench, watching his team go for it on 4^th down), playing at home and playing in a dome.

K Matt Bryant ($5,000) While expensive, Bryant checks all the blocks and has been extremely accurate over his long career.

Defenses aren’t that difficult. They score their point primarily with sacks, turnovers and defensive TDs. Therefore, I target teams with bad QBs and look for defenses with a strong pass rush and/or secondary. Bad QBs throw more interceptions and hold the ball longer, leading to more sacks.

D Pittsburgh Steelers ($4,500) The Baltimore Ravens offense has been horrendous this season, ranking 24th overall. Meanwhile, the Steelers were embarrassed last week, losing to the Bears.

ATTN Dynasty Commissioners: Do you want to do something cool for your league? How about a 1-hour live show dedicated to YOUR league? Team-by-team breakdowns, rankings, and more. For details and to book a show, visit: GoingFor2.com/plp.