Hot or Not Fantasy for Week 15 in the NFL
Normally I save writing the intro for one of the last things I do in my process of creating this article. I get everything organized first, then I start to look at the rankings on our site and take a look at the matchups. Once the players are picked, I’ll just dive into writing them up. Then the article is done and the intro still is yet to be started. So normally I am pretty beat up mentally by the end and thus the intros have been kinda shitty. Not today (Well it still might be shitty).
This is one of the most devasting weeks we have seen in the last decade of fantasy football. Every day there have been a countless (I could count them if I wanted to but…) number of players added to the COVID reserve list. I know it can seem daunting seeing all of these names and there being multiple protocols, however, the list is quite easy to figure out. If you are placed on it and you are unvaccinated, you are out for 10 days. If you are vaccinated, you can return after 2 negative PCR tests in consecutive days. You can also return on a false positive test the following day like Tyler Higbee did when he was placed on the list on Monday, thus missing his game that night. And now there are updated rules for asymptomatic vaccinated players as well. It’s tough out here for the players and it’s tough out here for fantasy football owners as well. There is a lot to know.
My best advice is to make sure you have a fantasy football notification app downloaded onto your phone. I won’t give away my best-kept secret but the Sleeper App is a really good one too. The good news is that you will know if a player is going to miss the game due to COVID by Saturday at 4 pm (for Sunday games) or in the afternoon on the day of for non-Sunday games. For example, Tyler Lockett just got put on the COVID list on Thursday. If he gets two negative tests on Friday and Saturday, he can be activated from off the COVID list prior to 4 pm ET and play on Sunday. So keep an eye on Twitter or on your fantasy apps on Saturday night and double-check that all of your players are indeed active prior to their games starting.
Another thing to keep in mind, we have two Saturday games this week. CLE-LV and IND-NE are at 4:30 pm and 8:15 pm ET respectively. Just another thing for you to make sure you are thinking about this weekend in your playoff matchups.
Also, congratulations. If you are reading this article, you made the playoffs. This isn’t the prize we came here for though so let’s get locked in and good luck the rest of the way.
As always, this column is not a start/sit column but will give you my opinion’s on players based on their ranks on Goingfor2.com. If you would like to yell at me for my awful takes, you can find me on Twitter @KyleTheCommish.
HOT: QUARTERBACKS
Embed from Getty ImagesAaron Rodgers, GB @ BAL (Consensus Rank: QB7, My Rank: QB1)
I feel so bad for Baltimore. They have just had the worst injury luck this season. Their entire RB room was gone in the preseason. Then they lost a lot of their secondary with 5 of their corners/safeties on IR this season. And now their lone original starting secondaryman, Chuck Clark, is on the COVID list. This team just cannot catch a break. Good thing Aaron Rodgers is coming to town.
Just so you all are aware, this blurb is a reverse jinx. I am willing into existence that Rodgers will not be the QB1 of the week. In fact, I am hopeful the reverse jinx makes it so that he is QB13 on the week. Can’t take any chance in the playoffs with these sorts of things. I played the Rodgers/Adams stack last week. Going into SNF I was up 70 points, then I cried until Tuesday because I lost a first-round bye and some money because of it. I was only the 2nd highest scoring team of the week. Fine, I’ll shrug it off. “Let’s see who I’m playing this week… oh you’ve got to be kidding me.” The same exact guy. Let the tilt begin.
But you came here for analysis. So let’s talk about my vote for MVP this season. Rodgers has scored 32.5, 26.28, and 28.64 points in his last three games respectively. That was against two divisional foes and the Rams. Games that I would expect to be hard-fought. Rodgers said no. In those games, he threw for over 300 yards in each of them and threw a combined 10 touchdowns, and even ran one in for good measure. He is the hottest QB in football and he is doing it on a badly injured toe that he has described as very painful. He is not practicing during the week and just going on game day and it is working.
Given his hot streak, the Packers contending with the Bucs and Cardinals for the first-round bye, the Ravens’ injury woes, and Rodgers just being pissed off at the world, I think ARod drops another 30 burger this week (and by 30 I mean 30 total yards #reversejinx).
Trevor Lawrence, JAX vs HOU (Consensus Rank: QB30, My Rank: QB21)
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This is one for all my Superflex peeps. The king is dead, huzzah! Urban Meyer is gone and a huge weight has been lifted from the back of Trevor Lawrence. There were clearly some signs of a difference of opinion between Meyer and Trevor in press conferences recently and thankfully Urban was let go (said every fantasy fan ever).
I don’t necessarily think that Trevor is going to become this supernatural QB just because his head coach was fired. I mean he is surely capable of that level of play, but he has only thrown 1 touchdown since Week 9. Clearly, there are issues at all levels. But the talent is there.
Laviska Schenault and James Robinson have been deployed so poorly this season. I have hopes that we see some changes from those two players the rest of the way. Marvin Jones was on fire early on in the season because of his veteran presence. Marvin was also a player that had verbal altercations with Urban throughout the season. I have a feeling he turns it around. The biggest downside is everyone’s favorite tight end, Dan Arnold, won’t be active this week. Sadge. This is a GIF of me missing Dan.
I’d feel comfortable starting him in a 2QB league if I didn’t have a great 3rd option.
NOT: QUARTERBACKS
Embed from Getty ImagesKirk Cousins, MIN @ CHI (Consensus Rank: QB9, My Rank: QB15)
Primetime Kirk is here again. I shouldn’t even say that. Primetime splits are a BS thing to measure success on yet people do it because they feel that there is a clutch gene or whatever. Clutch doesn’t matter in fantasy. Blake Bortles was a top 5 QB in fantasy one year and I don’t think he could ever get into a car with a stick shift because he’d have to touch the clutch to move. The car would just spontaneously combust.
My thing with Kirk this week is I just don’t think he is a QB I want to start in a 1QB league. The Vikings had so much success last week in the running game and they only let the Steelers back into the game because they wouldn’t just run the ball. Mike Zimmer has fired Offensive Coordinators in the past because of their unwillingness to commit to the ground game. I expect an overcorrection this week, especially in the cold and windy Soldier Field.
Plus, Chicago is giving up over 100 rushing yards per game. I know Chicago is a good matchup to QBs but I’m a contrarian this week.
Russell Wilson, SEA @ LAR (Consensus Rank: QB13, My Rank: QB22)
This appearance on the NOT list then the HOT list and now the NOT list again trend has to stop. However, I will keep this brief. The only reason Russ is appearing on this list is that he may not have any WRs this week.
Lockett was put on the COVID list this week. Metcalf, Eskridge, and Swain have not practiced this week. If none of them play, there is absolutely no way you can start Russ in the first round of your playoff matchup unless you’re in a desperate Superflex situation. Even then, I might try to pivot.
HOT: RUNNING BACKS
Embed from Getty ImagesCordarrelle Patterson, ATL vs SF (Consensus Rank: RB9, My Rank: RB5)
I told myself I would never write anything good about Patterson in this column. Well… here we go. Anything good about Patterson.
We good? No? I have to write more than that? Ughhhh. Fine.
Take a guess at who the worst NFL defense in 2021 is at defending pass-catching RBs? The 49ers. That stat means only points from receiving are being looked at. The best RB this year at receiving has been Cordarrelle by a wide margin. He is being lined up out wide, in the slot, and in the backfield. He is catching the ball and is often making big plays. No, he isn’t impacting the game the same way he was earlier in the season when he was scoring TDs at an ungodly rate, but I have a funny feeling he makes it in the end zone once again this week.
The issue is that Mike Davis has seen a bit of a resurgence in snaps. He is once again outsnapping Patterson, for whatever reason, and is seeing a good amount of work out of the backfield as a receiver. However, he is nowhere near as efficient as Cordarrelle is.
Cordarrelle: 4.48 yards per carry, 11.28 yards per catch
Mike: 3.44 yards per carry, 6.13 yards per catch
The Falcons OL doesn’t block for Davis and Cordarrelle is quick enough to make it outside on his runs so they don’t have to hold on as long. This information is basically a plea to Arthur Smith to get him the ball 20+ times a game. If he gets those touches, they will have a chance to upset the 49ers at home and keep their slim playoff chances alive.
James Robinson, JAX vs HOU (Consensus Rank: RB21, My Rank: RB6)
This goes hand in hand with the Trevor blurb. Urban’s firing is a win for Robinson and the Jags offense. Or at least it should be. The team clearly gave up on him and I think there could be a bit of a fire in their belly this week to play for themselves.
The interim HC, Darrell Bevell, talked on Thursday at his press conference that James Robinson is the starting RB going forward and they will give him the work as such. I can only assume that means that Carlos Hyde is going to sit his old ass on the bench for 90% of the snaps and Robinson is going to be the bellcow once again. UPDATE: Carlos Hyde is out this week. Robinson should get 100% of the work if the sky is blue. *checks the color of the sky*… Yeah, the sky is blue.
There is nothing in his past that gives me any hope or inspiration for the future. This is all about the Jags playing the way they should have been playing from the start. Oh and they happen to be playing the Texans who are abominable against the run. Rashaad Penny ran for over 100 yards against them last week. James Robinson is going to be an RB1 this week. You can take that to the bank.
Chase Edmonds, AZ @ DET (Consensus Rank: RB26, My Rank: RB10)
You will read about James Conner in the NOT section this week so I won’t waste a bunch of words on him here. So go read that blurb after this one. However, Edmonds has a role on this team with Conner on the field or not.
Through the first 8 weeks of the season (and prior to his injury), Chase Edmonds was RB17 on the season. He had only two games under 10 points on the year. His downside was that he didn’t have over 18 points in any game. That was 100% due to him not getting many opportunities for touchdowns. Edmonds has not been allowed goal line carries with Kliff Kingsbury as the head coach. Kenyan Drake got the spoils last year even though he had never been a goal-line back up to that point. Then they brought in James Conner for 2021 and he did so well down there that it never made sense for Edmonds to be on the field inside the 5. Conner has 8 touchdowns to Edmonds 1 during that span of 8 games.
The good news, Chase did begin to receive a bit of that work prior to the injury. He had 4 red zone rushes in his final 3 games. Conner still lead the way with 7 during that stretch but Chase was involved which was not always the case. I like that trend because if he can get into the end zone, his receiving work gives him a large enough floor that he could enter RB1 status on any given week he scores.
Cute Running Backs (Others Receiving Votes):
This week’s Cute Running Backs/Pass Catchers sections are going to be for players that have their situations improved due to COVID/injury situations which would make me consider starting them.
AJ Dillon: As of this writing, Aaron Jones has yet to practice this week. I think Rodgers (Spoiler Alert: and Adams) are HOT this week and if there is no Jones that means there is no one to steal touchdowns away from him this week. That’s right I said it. Dillon has been the better player for the Packers this season. Fire him up regardless of Jones playing, but he is a top 10 RB with no Jones.
Nick Chubb: You were starting him already but he should be considered the #1 RB this week with no Baker, Keenum, Hunt for their game against the Raiders on Saturday. Vegas is the 2nd best matchup for a fantasy RB over the last 5 weeks.
Sony Michel: If Henderson does not play this week, you need to have Michel in your starting lineup. He received 20 rushing attempts in both games that Henderson didn’t play this year. Now he gets Seattle, who has given up almost 170 yards per game to opposing running backs.
Antonio Gibson: With Ryan Fitzpatrick on IR, Taylor Heinecke has stepped up this year as the QB. With Taylor and Kyle Allen (backup QB) being added to the COVID list, the team is now an unknown at QB and just signed Garrett Gilbert who could be in line to start. I expect them to lean into the running game this week against the Eagles.
NOT: RUNNING BACKS
Embed from Getty ImagesJames Conner, AZ @ DET (Consensus Rank: RB8, My Rank: Unranked)
Last week I had him as a top 5 play and he delivered and then some. 33 fantasy points in the last game before the playoffs. I’m sure many people locked up a playoff spot or first-round bye because of him. I also said I might have him on the HOT list this week because people expect Edmonds to come in and take over the RB position. Well, I don’t think that will happen, but I have him here because I’m not sure he will play at all.
On the last play of the game last week, Conner came off the field injured. He ended up walking off but he has yet to practice so far this week. This is important for two reasons. First, the Cardinals have been very cautious with bringing players back from injury too fast. Kyler sat out two weeks that I had him on the HOT list because I expected that he would be back. Hopkins sat out for an awfully long time with an injury as well. I think the Cards may just ice Conner for a week in a game that they don’t need him to win. Second, Chase Edmonds should be back this week and I believe he will take about the same amount of snaps he was taking earlier in the season (About 50-60% or so).
Considering both of those things, I think I would still have to start him if he plays, but I am highly skeptical that he does play.
Ronald Jones, TB vs NO (Consensus Rank: RB58, My Rank: RB25)
I really don’t care that Fournette has yet to practice this week and may not be available against the Saints (UPDATE: he was at Friday’s practice in some capacity). Fournette has been so incredibly steady as a fantasy back this year because of his work in the receiving game. Ronald Jones does not have the same rapport with Brady that Lenny does. Yes, Gio Bernard is also NOT going to be playing in this game, so it looks like Ronald Jones could have the backfield all to himself. I really don’t care.
I didn’t include him in the “cute running back” section because I would have an insanely hard time trusting him enough to start him in the playoffs. That being said, I do have him as a flex guy if you’re absolutely desperate. But the Saints rush defense is no joke. They are the toughest defense in back-to-back years against the position. They don’t give up many big plays or touchdowns to the position. The Bucs also pass the ball more than anyone. When these teams met earlier in the year, Lenny only got 11 touches the whole game and was held to under 50 yards. In games that he played over 50% of the snaps, those numbers are by far the lowest on his season.
HOT: PASS CATCHERS
Embed from Getty ImagesDavante Adams, GB @ BAL (Consensus Rank: WR2, My Rank: WR1)
*Note to editor: See the first paragraph of the Rodgers blurb and just copy/paste it here.*
I don’t believe I have talked about Adams all year on this column and honestly, I’m not a huge fan of doing so because what am I supposed to say? Adams is awesome. The only reason he isn’t ranked #1 by our rankers is that Cooper Kupp is a thing this year. That’s boring and you already know that. So I will try to give you some stats that aren’t so boring.
Over the same three-week span we were talking about for Rodgers, Adams has also entered into another stratosphere in terms of production. Three straight 100-yard performances. Four touchdowns. On only 25 catches. In Kupp’s last three games, two 100-yard performances, two touchdowns, on 28 catches. Including a game where they went head-to-head (sorta cuz they aren’t on the field at the same time) and Adams outperformed him and the Pack got the W. Adams is the hotter player right now and in a fantastic matchup I am going to give him the #1 spot this week.
(Again this is all a reverse jinx because of the Rodgers-Adams stack I’m going against.)
Devante Parker, MIA vs NYJ (Consensus Rank: WR30, My Rank: WR16)
I could have just included Parker in my COVID section of the ‘Cute Pass Catchers’ but I wanted to write him up a little more. Jaylen Waddle was added to the COVID list on Thursday. There is a chance that Waddle returns for this game against the Jets, but based on Flores’ comments on Friday I feel like that is unlikely. Regardless of his return, I am comfortable with Parker in my starting lineup in the first round of the playoffs.
Devante doesn’t have a huge ceiling. He is unlikely to bring in a touchdown. But Miami is a pass-first team because they cannot figure out how to run the ball. I think that leans even more into the passing game this week for Tua and the Dolphins. They are a quick passing team and basically are doing 5 yard plays anyway. Not much different than the run game except our running backs average 3 yards per carry.
In games that he has played this year (6 games), Devante has under 50 yards in only two of them. People think of Devante as a big-play WR and that Tua can’t deliver big play balls. That is not the case, it just isn’t asked of him very much. In fact, I’d say that Parker is his favorite 3rd down target because of all the 3rd and long situations the team ends up being in. He knows how to give Parker a chance and it works out pretty well for them both.
If Waddle doesn’t play, you are looking at a pass-catching group of Gesicki, Parker, Mack Hollins, Albert Wilson, Isaiah Ford, and Durham Smythe. I expect a lot of 2 TE sets in this game, which would leave Parker as the lone WR on the field. Parker will get 10+ targets in this game if that is the lineup, and I expect over 100 receiving yards.
Hunter Henry/Jonnu Smith, NE @ IND (Consensus Rank: TE12, My Rank: TE7)
I keep going back to this well because I keep finding water. Start your tight ends against the Colts. Here are the last 4 tight ends to play the Colts.
Brevin Jordan (HOU): 26 yds, 1 TD
Rob Gronkowski (TB): 123 yds
Dawson Knox (BUF): 80 yds
Dan Arnold (JAX): 67 yds (I miss you)
I could’ve continued on, but I got bored. The one thing you don’t see a lot of in those numbers is touchdowns. Only the one. The one thing Hunter Henry does is score touchdowns. I would expect that Hunter wins that matchup this week even though he hasn’t scored in his last 3 games.
I was desperate enough to include Jonnu Smith into this blurb because the Colts are just so bad at the position and Jonnu seems like he is finally back to a full-time role with his snaps. He is a super super deep play but I would have him ranked ahead of John Bates (spoiler) if you are that down bad.
Cute Pass Catchers (Others Receiving Votes):
This week’s Cute Running Backs/Pass Catchers sections are going to be for players that have their situations improved due to COVID/injury situations which would make me consider starting them.
Hunter Renfrow: You were starting him already because he is awesome but once again Waller is not going to be playing this week. Renfrow has been Carr’s 1st 2nd and 3rd target since Waller’s injury. Expect him to continue that trend this week against Cleveland.
Christian Kirk: Of the Arizona pass catchers, Kirk is the one I trust the most going forward. He has the most routes run of the other WRs (Green and Moore), and with Hopkins out for the year with an injury, I think there is a chance he leads the team in targets the rest of the way. Ertz should be upgraded the rest of the season as well if you are looking for a TE.
Amon-Ra St Brown: Josh Reynolds is the only other semi-trustworthy player on this team at the moment. Hockenson is done for the year and it looks like Swift may join him shortly. Reynolds now has popped up on the Thursday injury report after not being on it Wednesday. He logged a limited practice. But given these injuries, plus Jamaal Williams still not being reactivated from the COVID list, Amon-Ra is a flex play this week.
KJ Osborn: If Thielen misses this week’s game against Chicago (MNF so keep that in mind), then Osborn needs to be in lineups. Chicago is absolutely terrible against slot WRs this year and that is where Osborn will lineup most of the time. When filling in for Adam last week, he got over 80 yards and a score.
Jamison Crowder: No Elijah Moore. No Corey Davis. No problem for Crowder. There isn’t really anywhere else for Zach Wilson to throw this ball this week. It’s not like he is going to force balls on the outside where Xavien Howard and Byron Jones will be. Crowder will be open in the slot.
Darnell Mooney: I feel more confident with the above WRs in my starting lineup this week, but Allen Robinson is on the COVID list and David Montgomery and Khalil Herbert both did not practice Thursday because of a non-COVID illness. The team has a full-on outbreak on its hands and if Fields and Mooney are healthy, I like the chances that they hook up for a big one or two.
Mike Gesicki: I mentioned Devante Parker already but Gesicki is another player who needs to be highlighted. The Jets are 25th against the tight end position this season but more importantly, Tua’s favorite target in Jaylen Waddle won’t be playing. He knew where Waddle would be at all times so he often just threw it to him. Now Tua will have to get deeper into his progressions and that is where Mike ends up being targeted more often than not.
John Bates: A really really really deep play… but I like Bates more than Ricky Seals-Jones this week. He played more snaps last week and is going up against an Eagles defense that frankly does not know how to cover the position. They have been dead last all year in fantasy points given up to tight ends. UPDATE: With Heinicke being added to the COVID list, I’m not sure I trust any Washington pass catchers.
NOT: PASS CATCHERS
Embed from Getty ImagesAmari Cooper, DAL @ NYG (Consensus Rank: WR19, My Rank: WR30)
Touchdown or bust.
Average fantasy points in games where Cooper scores a TD: 22.22 (5 games)
Average fantasy points in games where Cooper DOES NOT score a TD: 7.06 (6 games)
So you’ll tell me that those numbers make sense. Scoring a touchdown is obviously going to give you a lot of points. At least 7 in fact. Ok… well where do the other 8 points come from to make up the difference? If you give him 7 more points in those 6 games in which he doesn’t score, you need to find 8 more points to get to that 22 point average.
The fact is that when Cooper doesn’t find the end zone, he doesn’t just hurt you… he kills you. In four of the six games, he didn’t score a touchdown, he failed to give you 7 fantasy points. That is killing you in the fantasy playoffs. That type of boom or bust player can be really nice. But you have to trust that this is a boom week and I don’t think it is. Cooper is going to see a lot of James Bradberry this week. He is one of the best cover corners in the NFL right now.
I’d leave Cooper on my bench this week, too much risk.
Michael Pittman, IND vs NE (Consensus Rank: WR20, My Rank: WR25)
This will be Pittman’s first matchup against the Patriots in his young, impressive career. He is in for a rude awakening with JC Jackson in coverage. It is expected that he will be shadowed all game.
The shadow coverage is bad enough, but another thing plays into his NOT list appearance this week. If the Colts want a chance at winning this game, they know it goes on Jonathan Taylor’s legs. The Patriots know it too but frankly, I think the Colts will double and triple down on the ground game and hope to wear down the Pats defensive unit. And that is what they have done in recent weeks. Wentz only has one game with more than 35 passing attempts since Week 8 and that came against Tampa where they knew they’d need to throw to keep up. The Patriots aren’t outscoring teams this year, they are just outlasting them. I think the Colts employ a similar strategy.
Pat Freirmuth, PIT vs TEN (Consensus Rank: TE9, My Rank: TE12)
From Week 6 through Week 11, Pat was averaging over 7 targets per game. Since then, he has had a total of 11 targets.
Pat has totally bailed out the owners that have started him over the last few weeks with touchdowns. I know that because I have been fortunate enough to play against him in Week 12 and 14 and lost because of them. 🙂 However, I am a process>results type of fantasy footballer. Ben isn’t throwing it to him as often. Yes, he is looking at him in the end zone, which is extremely important for the tight end position, but I am no longer considering him as a top 8 play until he gets more work in the middle areas of the field.
You are likely still starting him, but you’re praying for a touchdown as always and I, nor Vegas, thinks it will be a high-scoring game. The Over/Under was set at 41.5 on Tuesday, the second-lowest number on the slate this week.
A long one this week but I wanted to get you guys my thoughts on as many players as possible given the injuries and COVID worries going on this week. As I mentioned last week, I intend to write Hot or Not through Week 17 so you’ve got two more weeks of me, and then I plan to go on a hiatus for a bit. I hope you have enjoyed my content thus far.
Good luck this week!
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