Hot or Not Fantasy for Week 7 in the NFL
Well… we made it. What did we make it to?
Weeks like this, creating fantasy content is both easy and extremely hard. Basically, none of us have a choice because all choices are bad. If you are lucky enough to be avoiding all of the byes from the Chargers, Vikings, Cowboys, Jaguars, Bills, and Steelers, you probably don’t have a very good team. Why the NFL has 6 teams on a bye this week and other weeks with only 2 teams on a bye is a mystery to me, but this is the life we live as fantasy managers.
The byes this week make this column a little shorter because honestly the best players are ranked appropriately. There isn’t too much difference of opinion. Chuba Hubbard is the 10th best RB amongst our rankers this week. That seems awfully high. Yet, the guys behind him are Josh Jacobs, Fournette, McKissic, Edmonds, Harris, etc. I mean maybe I’d rank him 12th this week or something, but I don’t hate him. He is at least a capable player this week. UGHHH BYE-MAGGEDON WHYYYYYY!
As always, this column is not a start/sit column but will give you my opinion’s on players based on their ranks on Goingfor2.com. If you would like to yell at me for my awful takes, you can find me on Twitter @KyleTheCommish.
HOT: QUARTERBACKS
Aaron Rodgers, GB vs WSH (Consensus Rank: QB6, My Rank: QB2)
Washington has given up about a million and one fantasy points this season. They are #1 to QBs, #2 to WRs, #9 to RBs. Rodgers is going to sell his ownership of the Bears so he can invest in Washington’s franchise, only to realize that Washington has a really dark side to it and then will reinvest in the Bears. Yeah, I made the joke. You knew it was coming. You can click off the article now, I understand.
One thing that has worried some Rodgers owners, and possibly Packers fans, is that Aaron has only thrown for over 300 yards once this season. That is the same amount as Tua. Fret not, Fräulein. Washington is averaging over 317 yards to QBs this season. Additionally, they are giving up 33 yards on the ground per game and averaging a total of 3.0 TDs against to the position. The elite defense in Washington is nowhere to be seen.
Rodgers hasn’t played against any bottom 10 defenses this year. However, in 2020 he faced a bottom 10 defense five times. In four of those games, he got over 26 fantasy points. He has only gotten over 26 fantasy points once this season. I am expecting Rodgers to have his 2021 coming out party.
Tua Tagovailoa, MIA vs ATL (Consensus Rank: QB15, My Rank: QB10)
I told you to pick him up on Goingfor2’s waiver article this week. Then our very own Brad Berreman told you that he was a worthwhile streamer in his column. And finally, Brian Craighead told you that Tua is a breakout candidate. It is official, Goingfor2 is a Tua support group. (And with the Watson rumors, I’m gonna need it.)
Tua had a great game against the Jags. I don’t care if it is the Jags or not. He had a good game against the Patriots too. Tua is in control of this offense for the first time since he has come into the league and he looks comfortable… sorta. I mean it’s hard to look comfortable when you are running for your life, but you get the idea. Tua is slinging it to Waddle and Gesicki and had a lot of faith in Parker back in Week 1. He wasn’t perfect but he doesn’t often make turnover-worthy mistakes.
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The big development this year is that he is trusted to deliver the ball in goal-to-go situations. Last year, we normally would run the ball but in the 5 trips to the red zone that Tua has made, 4 were TDs (3 passing, 1 rushing) with 1 FG. No rushing TDs from the RBs.
300 yards and 2 TDs = 20 points. That is my expectation for this game against a Falcons team that is very forgiving to QBs and will probably end up winning this game, leaving the Dolphins in passing situations. This week that is enough for a top 10 QB performance.
NOT: QUARTERBACKS
Embed from Getty ImagesRyan Tannehill, TEN vs KC (Consensus Rank: QB8, My Rank: QB13)
It’s a great matchup. It’s a rough week with Herbert, Russ, Dak, Baker, Lawrence, Allen, Ben, and Cousins all out at QB. You may need to play Tannehill. But man… I just wouldn’t feel good about it.
Ryan has only 1 TD in each of his last three games. That includes great matchups against the Jets and Jags. In the Jets game, Ryan threw the ball 48 times and did not reach the 300-yard plateau and has only hit that mark once this season. In only one week this season did Ryan reach 20 fantasy points. That was the game against Indy where he threw 3 TDs but under 200 passing yards. Ryan’s rushing yardage is up per game in 2021 but his TD efficiency, which held him afloat the last two years, is completely gone.
Tannehill should have his full complement of weapons at the ready this week with both AJ and Julio playing last week against the Bills. But the Titans pulled off the upset against the Bills because of one man… and his name is Derrick Henry. “King Henry, I apologize to you for fading you last week. I will never make that mistake again (until I do).” If the Titans want to beat the Chiefs, the same recipe is required. Run the ball and keep it out of Mahomes’ hands. They trust him at the goal-line more than they ever had before, why change that now? I’d bench Tannehill for Tua, Burrow, Carr, and Matty Ice.
Sam Darnold, CAR @ NYG (Consensus Rank: QB11, My Rank: QB18)
Remember when Sam Darnold was not Sam Darnold a few weeks ago? Yeah. Good times. With three performances of 300 yards or more and 2 TDs in his first 4 weeks, Sam was a top 10 QB and Carolina was 3-1. Now, David Tepper has put fire to the Deshaun Watson rumors again and apparently has Sam under a two-week tryout period before he decides to pull the trigger on a monumental trade. Pressure is on, kid.
The Giants are actually a pretty decent matchup on paper. The issue is that Sam seems a bit lost. His pass catchers did not help him at all last Sunday against Minnesota, but Sam wasn’t perfect either. 17 for 41 is not all on the wide receivers. In the past 2 games, Sam had 5 turnovers, 2 touchdowns, and under 400 passing yards. That’s not good.
Let’s just say that Sam does a quick 180 though. He gets back to how he was playing in Week 1 and 2 against the Jets and Saints. His fantasy points in those games were 18.0 and 18.9. In the games that Sam really exploded, he had 2 rushing touchdowns in each game. That is fluky production and can’t be trusted. Especially against a team that is only averaging 11 rushing yards to QBs. I’m not starting Darnold this week, nor any other week. He is droppable in standard leagues.
HOT: RUNNINGS BACKS
Embed from Getty ImagesJD McKissic, WSH @ GB (Consensus Rank: RB13, My Rank: RB10)
This will change if Antonio Gibson ends up playing. It looks like the Washington Football Team is saying they are trying to limit his practice reps during the week so he can play on Sunday. We will see. But if Gibson goes or doesn’t go, McKissic should be in your starting lineup.
Green Bay is favored in this game by 9.5 points. If Washington covers, I will be surprised. This is going to be a game in which Washington will be trailing for the large majority of the time. That means more JD McKissic on the field and that means more receptions/targets. Last week against the Chiefs, Heinicke targeted McKissic 10 times and completed 8 of those for 65 yards. That was his highest output since Week Two, and I feel the team will be in a very similar game script this week. Yes, Gibson played a season-low 39% of the snaps because of his injury, but the most targets Gibson has had in a game since Week Two has been 3 (which happened against KC). Heinicke is going to be throwing this game and last week he targeted his running backs on 1/3 of his attempts.
If Gibson is unable to go in this game, I believe the rookie Patterson will help in the run game and McKissic won’t steal too many rushing attempts. But Patterson is nowhere near the pass-catcher Gibson is, so I expect McKissic to get one of his highest snap shares of the season.
Myles Gaskin, MIA vs ATL (Consensus Rank: RB25, My Rank: RB21)
Miami’s running back situation is thus: Malcolm Brown is the best pass protector, but can’t convert on 3rd or 4th and short. Salvon Ahmed is the speedy back that can break one for 20 but isn’t trusted to get consistent yardage. Myles Gaskin is the guy that can do everything but none of it is good. It’s all just adequate enough. This is why Gaskin doesn’t stay in the game all of the time.
There is a spark of hope as far as his fantasy outlook is concerned though. Last season, the Dolphins tried really hard to make Jordan Howard work as the RB1. They eventually gave up and yielded to Gaskin getting 70% of the snaps. Brown will get work on obvious pass-catching downs as a blocker, but beyond that, he holds nothing of value to me as a fan and I hold out hope the coaches will see the same. Gaskin is not a difference-maker as a runner. But he is a great target for Tua out of the backfield in an offense that struggles to push the ball to the deepest parts of the field. In every game but one, he has at least 5 targets (and a 75% catch rate on the season). That is almost 4 catches per game. I’m not saying it is safe. But a minimum of 4 PPR points isn’t terrible. You could do a lot worse this week.
Cute Running Backs (Others Receiving Votes):
I wouldn’t mention this in a normal week… but with all of the byes, you may be looking at David Johnson as that guy/girl at the end of the night in the bar. No, David Johnson isn’t a 10. He isn’t even a 5 anymore. But a 4 looks a little bit better at 2:58 am with a few drinks in your system. David Johnson also really wants to get back at his ex and will want to put on a show for you. Relax!!! This is about football! The Texans are playing the Cardinals this week. David Johnson is the clear passing down back and has 18 targets this season compared to Lindsay’s 4 and Ingram’s 6. He isn’t getting hardly any rushing attempts, but in a revenge game, I could see the Texans giving him a shot on the goal line. If he is given the chance, I’m sure he will pound it in there.
Do the best that you can this week for your RBs with so many either injured or on the bye. If you want to reach out to me for start/sit questions or waiver pickups, you can on Twitter @KyleTheCommish.
NOT: RUNNING BACKS
Embed from Getty ImagesChase Edmonds, AZ vs HOU (Consensus Rank: RB14, My Rank: RB17)
Chase Edmonds is going to be what he is. A better RB than the way he is used. I wish Kliff would give this kid 10 rushes and 10 targets every game. He could handle more, to be honest with you. He would be a D’Andre Swift type of player with that workload. Instead? He gets basically no shot at a TD unless he scores from outside of goal-to-go range. He gets an average of only 14 possible touches per game. Don’t sign James Conner when you have Chase Edmonds!!! Ok… rant over.
I love Chase Edmonds. I don’t like having him on the Not list. But honestly, he has a ceiling and it isn’t very high. In PPR scoring, he has put up over 15 points in a game only one time. He was consistent early in the season on getting above 10 points, however, the past two weeks have been duds. A combined 11.4 points against SF and CLE.
I expect Arizona will be able to score plenty on this Texans defense. However, I am guessing that Hopkins will be involved heavily in a revenge game and that when they get in close, you know it is James Conner who will grab the easy touchdowns. You need to start him, I just think his ceiling caps him.
HOT: PASS CATCHERS
Embed from Getty ImagesBrandin Cooks, HOU @ AZ (Consensus Rank: WR15, My Rank: WR12)
I just mentioned it in the Chase Edmonds blurb, but I expect this game will be a high-scoring affair… for the Cardinals. That means Davis Mills will be throwing early and often again. Cooks returned to form last week against the Colts after two tough matchups in New England and Buffalo. Arizona’s corners are young and out of position (Murphy should be in the nickel, not boundary), but have been playing well despite this. Brandin Cooks may be on the Texans but he is one of the more underrated receivers in the NFL. Whether it be his separation, route running, yards after the catch, he is a good receiver and I expect he reminds the Cardinals young secondary of that fact.
Let’s talk numbers. Volume has been the key for Cooks. With Davis Mills at QB, Cooks has had only 1 game under a 30% target share. Davis Mills has increased his passing attempts in each game he has played (with one exception against Buffalo) as he has matured. Brandin Cooks has led the team in targets in every game but one. More passing attempts = more targets for Cooks.
The one downside to Cooks’ numbers this year is that he isn’t making the big play or scoring much at all. Only six 20+ yard receptions and one touchdown all year. However, that hasn’t stopped him from being WR16 on the season in PPR. It isn’t sexy. But Cooks is a super safe option in a week surrounded by question marks.
Sterling Shepard, NYG vs CAR (Consensus Rank: WR25, My Rank: WR20)
Shepard showed up on the injury report on Thursday, which is always a reason for concern. However, if he plays… who else is going to catch the ball? Barkley, Toney, Golladay, and Engram all did not practice and I would guess that Toney and Barkley are OUT for sure with the other two highly questionable. Slayton practiced in a limited fashion but hasn’t played since Week 3. The Giants are holding a tryout for any pass-catchers on Broadway this Saturday morning if any readers are interested.
Not only is Shep available, but he has been very active when healthy. In his three full games, he has recorded 33 targets, 26 catches, 283 yards, and 1 touchdown. He was the #1 target in each of those games. Daniel Jones looks to Sterling Shepard often and he has delivered with at least 17 fantasy points in those three healthy games. WR19, WR8, WR21 in those games.
Darnell Mooney, CHI @ TB (Consensus Rank: WR28, My Rank: WR24)
It has not been an explosive start to Justin Fields’ career in Chicago, only topping 200 yards once in his four starts. This isn’t a blurb about Fields though. This is about the Bears’ #1 pass catcher. That is right… Darnell Mooney… WR1. In Fields’ four starts, Mooney led the team in targets three times.
The issue for starting Mooney (or Allen Robinson) these past few weeks is that there just are not enough pass attempts.
Week 3: 20
Week 4: 17
Week 5: 20
Week 6: 25
There isn’t a chance for volume in this offense for these pass catchers. I think that could change this week with Tampa. The Bears’ defense has been keeping their offense close enough that they can still run the ball. I can see this game being over quickly and Nagy letting Fields try to mount a comeback in this game. After all, the Bucs run defense is fantastic and I don’t know if Khalil Herbert will gash them like he did the Packers. The Bucs secondary is still banged up and I envision Fields showing off that arm downfield to Mooney.
Mike Gesicki, MIA vs ATL (Consensus Rank: TE9, My Rank: TE5)
The Falcons are not good at defending wide receivers. Now is the part you tell me that Mike Geisicki is not a wide receiver. Go ahead.
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… (yea that’s right I got a cute dog to do my time-wasting)
Mike Gesicki has taken most of his snaps this year in the slot, off the line of scrimmage. The Dolphins have finally realized that while his effort is commendable, he is a terrible blocker. So when he is on the field, he splits out. That means either a slower linebacker or a smaller nickel is going to be covering the 6’6 247 lb man.
Tua found him early and often in Week 6 and had quite a rapport with him in the offseason. I don’t expect over 100 yards very often. But if Devante Parker and Preston Williams miss the game again (both practiced in a limited fashion) then I could see it this week. Regardless Mike is a matchup nightmare and Tua knows it. Expect top 6 TE numbers the rest of the way (unless they are playing a smash-mouth football game, which this is not expected to be).
Cute Pass Catchers (Others Receiving Votes):
It looks like Jimmy G might be back as the quarterback for the 49ers. The biggest beneficiary? Brandon Aiyuk. In the 2 games with Lance as the signal-caller, he got a total of 7 targets and only 3 catches. In Aiyuk’s only full game with Jimmy in 2021, he got 6 targets and 4 catches plus 2 end zone targets and a touchdown. George Kittle isn’t back yet and that has been Jimmy’s favorite target in the past, so it will be up to Deebo and Aiyuk to move the ball against a poor Colts secondary.
I don’t know who it will be. I don’t think Mahomes knows either. But Tyreek Hill is not practicing again this week. He suited up last week and not surprisingly was great. But if he doesn’t play, who takes up the mantle? Mecole Hardman or Demarcus Robinson will be in a huge position to step up and both are speedsters in their own right. Mecole has been more consistent throughout the year and has found a place as the 3rd WR on the team with three 10 point games this season. However, since Hill got hurt against the Bills, Robinson is the one who has had the increase in snaps. Mecole is a safer play because he has a floor of at least a few catches, but Robinson could be a flier for you if you are struggling with byes this week and need a hail mary.
I thought our streak of naming TEs playing the Texans was going to end this week because Maxx Williams got hurt. Then the Cardinals traded for Zach Ertz and everything is right in the world again. I don’t expect a huge week from Ertz because I don’t know how much they will feature him when he doesn’t know the full playbook. But I wouldn’t be surprised if he ends up as a top 10 play this week given the Texans’ inability to defend the position.
NOT: PASS CATCHERS
Embed from Getty ImagesDJ Moore, CAR @ NYG (Consensus Rank: WR4, My Rank: WR10)
Honestly… this is my fault. I apologize to you, DJ Moore owners. Last year, DJ was a mess. Consistently just missed 100 yards. He had some total duds in there while Robby Anderson went nuts. I had traded for DJ Moore before the season started in 2020. This year, DJ is going crazy. A top 5 WR. The targets are aplenty and everything is bliss. And then… I trade for him in Week 5.
Please direct all hate mail to my agent AKA Milo the Cat.
Back to DJ Moore, I don’t know what is happening. 13 targets and only 5 catches last week, plus he fumbles. I mean c’mon! That stat line doesn’t even make sense. He had a series of drops and yet Darnold continued to look for him. He is so much better than that box score would suggest. I don’t know if this is a Darnold thing or if he was holding in a poop or something, but I’m tired of being sad boi about this player.
Listen, I love DJ Moore. I want DJ Moore to do awesome. He should do awesome. But WR4? Ahead of DHop in his revenge game? He has to show me that he is done with my curse before he gets that type of recognition again. On top of the ranking issue, James Bradberry should be shadowing him and it is a revenge game for him after he wasn’t resigned by the Panthers in 2020. Bradberry has blossomed into a top 10 corner since he signed with the Giants. Not great for DJ Moore.
Tyler Lockett, SEA vs NO (Consensus Rank: WR22, My Rank: WR31)
Lockett actually should have a semi-favorable matchup in this game against a really underrated Saints defense. Lattimore should be on Metcalf most of this game leaving Lockett by his lonesome. The problem is that the Steelers defense was dreadful against the pass this year and Geno Smith struggled mightily last week against them. He was 23-32 for 209 yards and 1 TD. But the numbers that matter for us in the Tyler Lockett camp are these. 7 targets, 2 catches.
With Russell Wilson, Tyler Lockett was already a better NFL receiver than fantasy. His up and down nature makes managers pull their hair out. With Russ this season, he had 2 games above 26 points. He also had 2 games under 8 points. Now with Geno making the throws, the deep ball doesn’t look to be in the cards with just one attempt 30+ yards downfield through his first 49 attempts. I expect Seattle to try to win this game on the ground and in the short passing game again. If/when they do try to throw deep, I expect Geno just gives Metcalf a chance in a jump ball situation. Hitting Lockett for a deep ball is much more rhythm-based passing that Geno wouldn’t have a chance at creating in just 2 weeks.
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Kyle Pitts, ATL @ MIA (Consensus Rank: TE4, My Rank: TE7)
I know the last time I faded him it didn’t go so well. In my defense, Calvin Ridley was not ruled out at the time of my writing. But OK go ahead, fade me again. It will probably work because it is the Dolphins. This is less about Kyle Pitts and more about the other TEs ranked around him. Hockenson, Fant, Geisicki, Seals-Jones all are the best pass-catching option on their team or will be throwing the ball a ton. I would prefer those guys if I had the choice.
Pitts finally got on the same page with Ryan against the lowly Jets. The Dolphins aren’t much better and Eric Rowe has struggled with uber-athletic TEs in the past. But the Dolphins have had success in the past (like the far beyond past, like when there were dinosaurs) against immobile QBs and getting them to release the ball quicker than they want. For that reason, this feels like more of a Cordarelle Patterson and Calvin Ridley game to me. Sure Pitts will be involved, but a TE4 has an expectation of 12+ fantasy points in my mind. I think he falls short of that.
Good luck to you all this week. It is a crapshoot out there and I hope you can fling your crap farther than your opponent. I don’t think those two things are the same but I am going to go with it. Thanks for reading!
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