Welcome to the first edition of my weekly Lazy Man’s Guide to Fantasy Football.  Every week I will quickly, efficiently, and with great vigor provide you with the fantasy nuggets you’ll need to know to not look like an idiot in your league.  I will NOT be providing advanced sabermetrics about each game, but I will provide you with easily digestible roster management tips and tactics, as well as advice on which players to start or avoid, injury and suspension updates where applicable, and a note on external factors, such as weather, that may impact certain games.  The focus here will be on season long leagues, but much of the information is transferable to daily or minute by minute leagues, if you’re into that type of thing.  The Lazy Man’s Guide to Fantasy Football may help you win a championship, but most importantly, it will keep you from looking like an asshole.

The Lazy Man’s week one roster advice:  Do not over think things.  Look, you could agonize for hours over whether you should flex Michael Floyd or Sammy Watkins, but you have a job, children, pest control problems, and probably alcohol to be consumed.  So, how about this strategy… start the guy you drafted higher.  For the 2015 season, there are no stats to rely upon, no trends to analyze, and no one really knows how things will unfold.  Sure, if you have two guys you think are even and one is playing Seattle and the other is playing Jacksonville, play the match up.  But, if it’s a toss-up and you’d rather focus your diminishing brain cells on consuming that twelve-pack of quadruple-hopped Norwegian style IPA in the fridge, go with the guy you drafted higher and you can curse your hangover and draft strategy come Monday.

Weather and other non-football notes:  Other than some drizzle at that juggernaut of a fantasy matchup between Tampa and Tennessee, weather should not be a factor at this weekend’s games (per the good folks at nflweather.com).

Games and player ratings:  Here they are, short and sweet game notes, and the lazy man’s patented player ranking system.

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Ballers Players expected to meet or exceed high fantasy point projections.

Bubble Players expected to squeak by with marginal production but not be total duds.

Bad Players you should avoid.  Please note, just because a guy is in the “Bad” category this week does NOT mean you should cut him, and in some cases you’ll have to start him, but temper your expectations.

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If a player is not listed I found them to be boring or obvious, so toss them in the bubble category.

I’m not including kickers because that would be dumb.

*indicates player has an injury and availability should be confirmed before game time.

Early games

Green Bay at Chicago

This should be a high scoring affair, especially for the Packers.  Chicago had one of the worst defenses in the league last year, and even with a new coaching staff and some new personnel, a week one match up with Aaron Rodgers and the Pack Attack is a tough out for anyone.  Expect Green Bay to roll but the Bears will rack up some fantasy stats while trying to keep up and in garbage time.

Ballers:  Aaron Rodgers, Eddie Lacy, *Randall Cobb, Devontae Adams, *Eddie Royal

Bubble:  Jay Cutler, Richard Rodgers, Matt Forte, *Alshon Jeffery

Bad:  Chicago DST

Kansas City at Houston

In a few weeks, it’s possible some of the Houston Texans will emerge as fantasy studs, with Deandre Hopkins leading that charge.  But this week, you can do better, as there are too many unknowns on this offense going up against a tough Kansas City DST.  Start your KC studs and avoid the Texans this week.

Ballers:  Jamaal Charles, Travis Kelce, Jeremy Maclin, Kansas City DST

Bubble:  Deandre Hopkins, Alex Smith, Cecil Shorts?

Bad:  Brian Hoyer, Alfred Blue, *Arian Foster (he’s not playing, in case you’ve been in a cave)

Cleveland at New York Jets

Between this game, Carolina at Jacksonville, and Tennessee and Tampa, the NFL is perhaps trying to get the three least watchable games off its schedule as early as possible.  The games are also largely worthless in fantasy as well.  Sure, the Jets have a few names that will not devastate your line up, but until we see some proof on the field with Ryan Fitzpatrick leading the attack, how can you be high on Brandon Marshall, Eric Decker, or Chris Ivory?  If you dont live in Cleveland and can name more than four Browns players not named Manziel you should get a 20 point fantasy bonus this week.  Start the Jets DST as a streaming play, Chris Ivory will do something, otherwise roll the dice elsewhere.

Ballers:  NY Jets DST

Bubble:  Chris Ivory, Eric Decker, Brandon Marshall

Bad:  The Browns, Ryan Fitzpatrick, Johnny Manziel (he’s not playing, neither is Tim Tebow)

Indianapolis at Buffalo

The high-octane Colts attack heads meets the revamped and Rex Ryan inspired Buffalo Bills.  There are a lot of unknowns surrounding this game, but I’m still more bullish on the Colts than some other prognosticators are.  I think Tyrod Taylor may be a decent play at some point this year, but seriously, do you want to roll him out as your week one starter?  I will say I think Percy Harvin will have a big year if healthy, but that’s as likely as me regrowing hair.

Ballers:  Andrew Luck, TY Hilton

Bubble:  Frank Gore, Andre Johnson, *LeSean McCoy, *Percy Harvin, Phillip Dorsett

Bad:  Tyrod Taylor, Buffalo DST, Dwayne Allen and Coby Fleener (which one????)

 

Miami at Washington

To steal advice from ESPN’s fantasy guru Matthew Berry, one of the key tenets of fantasy football is to minimize risk.  To put it bluntly, the Washington Redskins offense presents a TON of risk in this match up.  Sure, there’s talent at many of the skill position slots, but with two rookies starting on the O-line directly across from the likes of Ndamukong Suh and Cameron Wake, and Kirk “The Human Turnover” Cousins getting the nod at QB, is it worth the risk?  As an unabashed Redskins supporter I do think they will have some significant fantasy value this year, but if you can avoid them in week one, do it.  I think this will be a pretty low scoring affair, but Miami will pop some big plays in the passing game against an unproven Washington secondary to grab a road win.

Ballers:  Jarvis Landry, Miami DST, Jordan Cameron

Bubble:  Lamar Miller, Ryan Tannehill, Jordan Reed, DeSean Jackson, Pierre Garcon

Bad:  Kirk Cousins, Alfred Morris, *Devante Parker

Carolina at Jacksonville

Thankfully the TV schedule makers put this game at 1pm and the equally as exciting Tennessee at Tampa game on at 4:25pm, so you folks in SEC country won’t miss a minute of either!  Jacksonville bad.

Ballers:  Cam Newton, Jonathan Stewart, Carolina DST, Greg Olsen

Bubble:  Whoever plays WR for Carolina

Bad:  Jacksonville

Seattle at St Louis

Not a lot of players to get super excited about in this one.   Seattle is a better team obviously, but St. Louis will have a tough defense this year and the Seahawks have never been a “run and gun” team.  You’ll start your Seattle studs this week but don’t expect huge production, except from the DST.

Ballers:  Seattle DST

Bubble:  Russell Wilson, Marshawn Lynch, Jimmy Graham, Brian Quick?

Bad:   St. Louis RBs (Gurley out, Cunningham may be out), Nick Foles

Late games

New Orleans at Arizona

Sure, Drew Brees is not nearly as effective outdoors as he is on turf, but the Arizona retractable dome experience is as close as a guy can get to the cozy confines of the Superdome.   I think Brees puts up numbers and Brandin Cooks will be the primary beneficiary, with Benjamin Watson putting up sneaky numbers as the new starting TE in that high-powered offense.

Ballers:  Drew Brees, Brandin Cooks, Benjamin Watson

Bubble:  Mark Ingram, Carson Palmer, Andre Ellington, John Brown, Larry Fitzgerald

Bad:  *Michael Floyd

Detroit at San Diego

Which Detroit team will show up this year?   Or more specifically, which Matthew Stafford will show up this year?  A buddy of mine pointed out the fact that Stafford does well in fantasy every other year, and based on that scientific study, he’s due for a good year.  I’d say keep expectations in check until a few games play out, and I’d take Phillip Rivers over Stafford this week, especially against a Detroit defense that lost a lot of talent from last year.  Also, this game will highlight t reemergence of Stevie Johnson as a fantasy stud, especially in PPR.

Ballers:  Phillip Rivers, Calvin Johnson, Stevie Johnson

Bubble:  Joique Bell, Golden Tate, Ameer Abdullah, Matt Stafford

Bad:  Tight ends- Eric Ebron (just because), *Ladarius Green (concussion?)[wysija_form id=”1″]

Tennessee at Tampa

I hope you haven’t tied your fantasy hopes to either of these teams.  I DO think Doug Martin will have a solid year, and I DO think that Mike Evans will have some really good games, but with two rookie QBs, there will be a big “boom or bust” factor with these offenses each week, so tread lightly

Ballers:  Doug Martin

Bubble:  *Mike Evans, Harry Douglas, Vincent Jackson, Kendall Wright

Bad:  Jameis Winston, Marcus Mariota, Bishop Sankey

Cincinnati at Oakland

Cincinnati will put up healthy numbers in fantasy this year, led by AJ Green and the two-headed RB duo of Jeremy Hill and Gio Bernard.  If Andy Dalton knows what’s good for him, he’ll get Tyler Eifert in on the action as well.  It’s hard for me to get excited about the Raiders in fantasy, maybe I was burned too many times by Darren McFadden.  My guess is LaTavius Murray will not be as good as some folks think, but Amari Cooper will emerge as a star and will be as good as the Raider’s QB situation permits.

Ballers:  AJ Green, Tyler Eifert, Amari Cooper, Jeremy Hill

Bubble:  Latavius Murray, Derek Carr, Giovanni Bernard, Andy Dalton

Bad:  Oakland DST

Baltimore at Denver

Reports of Peyton Manning’s demise have been greatly exaggerated.  He could shot-put a football for 4000 yards and 40 touchdowns in a season.  Sure, new coach and offense, but he’s still going to be slinging wobbly passes to one of the most talented set of skill position players in the league.  I say Peyton and the Denver offense have a big week despite what some view as a tough matchup.  C.J. Anderson and Justin Forsett will both put up numbers, with the latter doing so through the air while trying to play catch up.

Ballers:  Peyton Manning, Demaryius Thomas, CJ Anderson, Justin Forsett

Bubble:  Steve Smith, Jr, Emmanuel Sanders, Owen Daniels, Joe Flacco

Bad:  Baltimore DST

Sunday Night game

New York at Dallas

There’s a lot of star power in this game, and some players are bound to lay eggs on the big stage.  But who?  Like the Philly and Atlanta match up, this game presents a lot of upside for almost any player who’ll be targeted more than once.  If there was more certainty about how the Dallas RBs will be used I’d have them listed as ballers, but we need more evidence to lean on one runner.  FYI, Victor Cruz looking like a no go, Reuben Randle would be a solid play at WR in his absence.

Ballers:  Tony Romo, Dez Bryant, Eli Manning, Odell Beckham, Jr

Bubble:  Joseph Randle, Darren McFadden, Rashad Jennings, Larry Donnell, Terrence Williams, Jason Witten, Reuben Randle

Bad:  Either DST, *Victor Cruz,

Monday night games

Philadelphia at Atlanta

The over under in this game should be around 200 points.  On the field turf in Atlanta, this should be a high-flying affair for both teams.  Avoid both DSTs like the plague, and plug in your favorites from either team with great enthusiasm.  Sleeper alert: Jacob Tamme.

Ballers:  Matt Ryan, Sam Bradford, Julio Jones, Darren McFadden, Jordan Matthews, Jacob Tamme

Bubble:  Nelson Agholor, Roddy White, Tevin Coleman, Ryan Matthews, Brent Celek

Bad:  Either DST, *Zach Ertz

Minnesota at San Francisco

This game will mark the beginning of the Teddy Bridgewater as a starting fantasy QB.  The kid can play, and Charles Johnson will emerge as a top-15 WR in the league.  You know what to do with Adrian Peterson, especially against a San Francisco defense that will probably have ten more players retire before the game.

Ballers:  Teddy Bridgewater, Adrian Peterson, Charles Johnson, Minnesota DST

Bubble:   Mike Wallace, Carlos Hyde, Anquan Boldin, Vernon Davis

Bad:  Colin Kaepernick, Torrey Smith

 

 

 

 

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