New England Patriots 2015 Fantasy Outlook

Key Fantasy Relevant Losses:

• RB Stevan Ridley
• RB Shane Vereen

Key Fantasy Relevant Additions:

• None

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Overview

I decided to start my Team by Team Fantasy Outlook with the Patriots for a couple reasons:

•  They are the returning NFL champions, so that seemed like a good place to start.
• Deflate-gate is all over the news, and both ESPN and NFL Network have covered the real life impact on the Patriots, but no one has really tackled the fantasy impact.

The Patriots historically are not a true giant in the fantasy world. Bill Belichick makes sure of that. One week he’ll run the ball 40 times and the following week he may throw it 50 times. You’re  lucky if you know who the starting running back is from week to week, and if you do happen to know the starting running back, there is no guarantee he gets most of the work.

Really the only thing you can count on in New England is Rob Gronkowski, and outside of Tom Brady, the only Patriot you can truly trust in the fantasy world. For the first four games of the season, even Gronk may not have fantasy relevance if Jimmy Garoppolo isn’t any good.

I am going to break down each of the four skill positions –QB, WR, RB, and TE. I’ll  tell you who you should be targeting, who could potentially have a break out season, which players you should avoid, and an overall fantasy grade for each position.

Quarterback

Even in a year in which Tom Brady starts all 17 games, he isn’t exactly a stud fantasy quarterback to build your lineup around. He finished 11th in total fantasy points last year –which is good, but not great. With the four game suspension looming (unless it gets reduced) his value is even worse. Not to mention his receiving core, outside of Gronk, is suspect at best. Couple that with the losses of Shane Vereen and Stevan Ridley and you have a team that may struggle to find offense, especially in those first four games.

I’m not going to make a habit to talk about the backup quarterback in most of these team by team previews, but in this case I have to make an exception. Jimmy Garoppolo is a complete fantasy mystery. We have no idea what to expect from him. Hopefully through the course of the preseason we will have a better idea as to whether or not he can handle the position. He should only be looked at as a late round flier. I wouldn’t draft him as even a Tom Brady “handcuff” so to speak. He is better left on waivers until after the first week. If he lights it up against Pittsburg, then we can put him on our fantasy radar.  Position Grade: C-

Running Back

LeGarrette Blount, Jonas Gray, James White, Brandon Bolden, Tyler Gaffney, and Travaris Cadet make up one of the worst depth charts you will see at any position for any team. The top 3 have shown flashes, but none of them really make me want to use a draft pick on. Blount is suspended for the first game of the season, so Jonas Gray will have a chance to show what he can do. Gray had that game last year in which he had 201 rushing yards and four touchdowns, which is a good reason to get excited, until you realize he had 211 rushing yards and one touchdown in every other game he played in –combined!

Blount is the only running back here worth owning, and even that’s a stretch. Gray is worth a late round flier at best, unless he somehow earns the starting job in the preseason. Personally I’ll have every Patriots running back on my “do no draft” list, unless for some reason Blount slips to the really late rounds. Position Grade: D-

Wide Receiver

If it wasn’t for Julian Edelman, this group of wide receivers would rival the Patriot running backs as one of the worst in terms of depth. Brandon LaFell was good down the stretch last year, but even then he wasn’t much to write home about. Brandon Gibson and Aaron Dobson offer some sleeper appeal, but with Garoppolo throwing them the ball in the first four games, I might be inclined to let them sit on waivers until Brady comes back.

Even when Brady comes back, the way they run their offense, no receiver really has a ton of upside. There is a lot of dinking and dunking underneath. None of the receivers are really “featured” in any way. Technically Julian Edelman is their number one receiver, but he is really only viable in a PPR league. I’ll be avoiding Patriots wide receivers almost as much as I’m avoiding the running backs and the quarterback. Position Grade: D

Tight End

It’s all about Gronk here. I know they signed Scott Chandler, and everyone seems to think he is going to be the “Aaron Hernandez” of this offense. That’s crazy talk. Chandler is a big red zone target and that’s it. If you’re Tom Brady and you are in the Red-Zone, which big red zone target do you think your going to target? Exactly. Gronkowski. He is so good, that he could almost make Garoppolo look like a decent starting QB in those first four games –almost.

I’m downgrading him slightly due to the Brady suspension, but if you can survive those first four games with Graoppolo at QB, what Gronk does after Brady gets back will be worth the wait. Even with a slight downgrade, he will still be the first tight end off the board. Position Grade: A

Summary

The Patriots seemingly took a major step backward this offseason, and will be in a dogfight to win this division. I know we say that every year, but on paper at least, the Patriots have nothing their division mates should be afraid of offensively. They do still have Brady (albeit with four fewer games) and Bill Belichick, and that alone is worth at least two victories a year. I’m avoiding pretty much all of the Patriots from a fantasy perspective, I just don’t see where they are going to get their offense from. Not to mention their defense also took a step back with no Darrelle Revis, Brandon Browner, or Vince Wilfork. Overall Grade: C

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