The New Orleans Saints hired San Francisco’s offensive passing game specialist, Klint Kubiak to be their offensive coordinator, after letting go of longtime coordinator Pete Carmichael.
The real question is have fantasy football managers committed the fatalist of fantasy sins and given up on a team Kubiak will resuscitate? There is after all an aging and still holding out running back Alvin Kamara, and a late-season resurgent quarterback Derek Carr, the men with a high ceiling are wide receiver Chris Olave, and the one with potential (and possibly their kick returner) Rashid Shaheed and of course Mr. Everything Taysom Hill.
What to expect from Kubiak
Last season with Kubiak as the passing game specialist the 49ers’ passing game was special:
- Tied for the sixth-fewest turnovers.
- Fourth in third down conversions percentage, 47.5%.
- Fourth in net passing yards per game, 257.9
- Second in total offense, 398.4 yards per game.
- First in red zone touchdown percentage, 67.2%.
Quarterback Brock Purdy had a league-best 113.0 pass rating and the best passer rating in the fourth quarter, at 123.8, would be remiss to mention that Purdy also led the league in yards per attempt, 9.6. But it is also important to remember that both tight end George Kittle’s 483 yards after the catch and receiver Deebo Samuel’s 527 yards after the catch were in the top 10 for the respective positions.
But enough about the 49ers, this is all about the New Orleans Saints and our fantasy football fortunes.
It has been reported that Kubiak wants to build the offense around the run game, he has said, “I think we just want to be grounded and run the football. We want to have an identity that we can run the ball versus eight-man fronts. That’s something we’re going to stress to our guys early in the offseason, building our play actions and moving the pocket off of that and trying to be a really good team on first and second downs.” That would require a drastic improvement for the Saints, as last season they were 21st in rushing yards per game (102.5) and 31st in yards per rushing attempt per game (3.6). Their leading rusher, Kamara was less than impressive in his 13 games.
Running Back, Kamara
Kamara 2023
| Rushing Attempts | Rushing Yards | Average Yards per Attempt | Average Yards per Game | Longest Run |
| 180 | 694 | 3.9 | 53.4 | 17 |
But as fantasy managers, we know that solely relying on Kamara for rushing glory is not a fantasy-winning strategy. Kamara finished as RB24 in standard leagues last season while finishing as RB14 in half-PPR and RB11 in full PPR leagues. As Andy Behrens states in his plea for drafting Kamara in 2024, last season Kamara finished as RB5 on a per-game basis.
Kamara 2023
| Targets | Target Share | Receptions | Catch Rate | Avg Scrimmage Yards/Game |
| 75 | 19.3% | 87 | 86.2% | 89.2 |
Kamara’s target share and target share, receptions, and targets were the second most amongst running backs, even though he missed four games (three from a suspension).
Kubiak is coming from a system that saw his running back last season have a 19.3% target share (first because played in more games), was fourth in targets (83), third in receptions (67), and second in receiving yards (564) for the running back position.
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If you are playing in half-PPR leagues or PPR leagues, your worry is about Kamara’s contract situation.
Quarterback, Carr
The play action and misdirection that are a part of the presumed Kubiak offensive scheme are a perfect fit with Carr. Last season Carr’s completion percentage with play-action was second with 68.2%. Purdy was ranked number one in play-action completion percentage last season
Carr’s strong finish last season coincided with the Saints playing more play-action:
| 2023 Week Played | Team Against | Completion % | Passing Yards | Yards Per Attempt | Passing Touchdowns: Int | 2024 Week Will Play |
| 14 | Carolina | 69.2% | 119 | 4.6 | 2:1 | Weeks 1 & 9 |
| 15 | New York Giants | 82.1% | 218 | 7.8 | 3:0 | Week 14 |
| 16 | Los Angeles Rams | 67.5% | 319 | 8.0 | 3:1 | Week 13 |
| 17 | Tampa Bay | 75% | 197 | 6.2 | 2:0 | Weeks 6 & 18 |
| 18 | Atlanta | 78.6% | 264 | 9.4 | 4:0 | Weeks 4 & 10 |
For the 2023 season, Carr threw for 3,878 yards with 25 touchdowns and eight interceptions. From a fantasy standpoint, he was wildly erratic with five games scoring only single-digit fantasy points and only two games with over 20 fantasy points. Purdy had two games with single-digit fantasy points and nine games with over 20 fantasy points, Purdy’s two single-digit games were against the Cleveland Browns defense and the Baltimore Ravens defense.
Carr’s single-digit fantasy games were against, the Carolina Panthers (7.7), Green Bay Packers (8.1), Tampa Bay Buccaneers (3.2), Minnesota Vikings (5.4), and the Detroit Lions (9.9). Three of the four games happened in the first four weeks of the 2023 season when Carr was learning the infamous Pete Carmichael system. Yes, he is once again learning a new system and although the Saints are reported to be tied for the easiest schedule, their first five games included the Dallas Cowboys, Kansas City Chiefs, and once again starting with the Carolina Panthers. Kubiak’s system is more quarterback-friendly (play action, pre-snap reads, and misdirection) and the whole team not just Carr is learning the system.
Last season Carr was sacked 31 times with 17 of those sacks coming in the first seven games. The Saints used the off-season to help the offensive line, with the addition of tackle Olisaemeka Udoh in free agency and the adding tackle Taliese Fuago in the 2024 NFL Draft. That and the ability to get the ball out quicker with the new scheme should help Carr, whose 5.0 under-pressure accuracy rating was 1.8 lower than when he gets a clean pocket according to playerprofiler.com.
Realistically speaking Carr has only finished as a top-10 fantasy quarterback once and that was in 2016, he consistently hoovers between QB13-20.
Wide Receivers
According to Ourlads.com, the current depth chart for the Saints has A.T. Perry, Chris Olave, and Rashid Shaheed listed as the starting wide receivers. If you are playing in the Scott Fish Bowl 14, Shaheed is an interesting sleeper addition because of his return ability. But for this redraft purposes, we will concentrate on Chris Olave. However, for all SFB14 players, I encourage you to go to Goingfor2.com for some great advice.
There are a few wide receivers that are “quarterback proof” meaning they will get theirs independent of the quarterback play, Olave is good, but he isn’t there yet. Olave is dependent on the play (and play calling) of Carr or whoever is under center.
Last season in Weeks 1-12 the Saints had the fifth-highest aDOT but also the 16th most off-target rate. When the play calling got better and Carr got better, in Weeks 13-18, the Saints were first In catchable rate with the lowest off-target rate, per fantasypros.com.
Olave is the undisputed WR1 in this offense now that Michael Thomas is gone. Thomas was on the field for 10 games last season (Olave 16) and still, Olave finished the season:
- 138 targets
- 25.2% target share
- 18.8% red zone target share
- 32 deep targets, fourth-most
Olave also had over 1,000 receiving yards for the second straight year (1,123) and was 23rd for the position in yards after catch, with 347. YAC is where the 49ers offense excelled last season.
Olave’s fantasy value was also depressed with him only reaching the end zone five times last season. The Saints were 10th in scoring offense last season averaging 23.6 points per game while the 49ers were second averaging 28.6 points per game. No 49ers wide receiver had less than six touchdowns and that was with McCaffrey vulturing the touchdowns scoring 14 with seven from the receiving position.
Even scoring only five touchdowns, Olave finished in the top 20 in half PPR leagues (WR19) and WR16 in full PPR leagues (in standard leagues he was WR24). With this new scheme that will give Carr a positive regression, Olave will benefit from the deep ball throws from (hopefully) a cleaner pocket and finish in the top 15 in PPR leagues this season.
Tight Ends
Juwan Johnson had foot surgery and is out indefinitely per CBSSports.com. Last season Johnson played in 13 games, where he was targeted 58 times for 368 receiving yards. Johnson ran 299 routes with a 68.7% route participation. That leaves Foster Moreau and Taysom Hill on the Saints depth chart for 2024.
Moreau played in 15 games with 25 targets, 193 receiving yards running 159 routes on a 29.8% route participation. Hill though listed as a tight end had his most ‘substantial’ stats in the passing category (11 passing attempts and one passing touchdown) and rushing category (81 rushing attempts for 401 yards and four rushing touchdowns).
The bonus with Hill is that he is listed as a tight end (at least on the Sleeper app) and therefore will get you stats from other positions if Kubiak utilizes him that way, making Hill the choice in this positional category.
All Right Fantasy Football Sinners Who Do You Got….
Taysom Hill
Or
Alvin Kamara
Let me know who you got and why?
As always play nice and good luck in all your fantasy football drafts! And for any of your fantasy football needs come on over to GoingFor2.com and/or DM @gladysLtyler on the app previously known as Twitter!
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