NFL 2020: Fantasy Football Week 8 Start n Sits

We are halfway through fantasy football season and it has been unpredictable, with injuries, Covid and performances that are beyond rational explanation. But we can try with statistics and trends to see who is going to give us that fantasy “W” for the week. So here we go:

Teams on a bye this week: Arizona Cardinals, Houston Texans, Jacksonville Jaguars and Washington Football Team

THURSDAY NIGHT GAME

Finally a Thursday night game with some actual fantasy relevance.

ATLANTA FALCONS @ CAROLINA PANTHERS, 49.5 O/U, PANTHERS 3 FAVORITE

START: RUNNING BACK, TODD GURLEY, FALCONS: It is a familiar refrain to start running backs against the Panthers’ defense. This is no exception. Gurley has seven touchdowns in seven games. His targets have increased from seeing just eight in the first four weeks to 12 in the last three games.

SLEEPER: QUARTERBACK, TEDDY BRIDGEWATER, PANTHERS: This is a rematch from Week 5, where Bridgewater had 313 yards, two touchdowns and zero interceptions. Since then he has ranked fifth in passing yards and seventh in completion percentage.

SIT: WIDE RECEIVER, RUSSELL GAGE, FALCONS: The Panthers have allowed per game the second-fewest fantasy points to the wide receiver position. Their slot corner Corn Elder has just given up 52 yards on 10 receptions with zero touchdowns on 16 targets.

SUNDAY EARLY GAMES

PITTSBURGH STEELERS @ BALTIMORE RAVENS, 46.5 O/U, RAVENS 3.5

This is the week of divisional rivalries.  The line from this game has gone from Ravens 5.5 to it’s current 3.5.

START: RUNNING BACK, JAMES CONNER, STEELERS: The Ravens defense is tied for fifth in yards per play at 5.1.  Before their bye week, the Philadelphia Eagles running back Miles Sanders torched them for 118 yards on nine carries.  Conner is averaging 4.75 yards per attempt and 75.2 yards per game with four rushing touchdowns.  The Steelers propensity to stick with one running back should bode well in this defensive match-up.

SLEEPER: WIDE RECEIVER, MARQUISE BROWN, RAVENS: The Steelers secondary is formidable, they are sixth in opponents passing yards per game allowed (217.5).  Even so in Week 7 the Titans AJ Brown found his way to 153 yards and one touchdown on eight targets.  Brown is even more of a deep boom or bust threat.

SIT: RUNNING BACK, MARK INGRAM, RAVENS: Ingram was injured during the Week 5 match-up and has had a bye week to recover.  The Ravens are league leading in rushing average with 5.4 yards per attempt. But this isn’t because of just one player.  The three-headed monster and Lamar Jackson who all occupy a place in the run game make for a fantasy nightmare.  

INDIANAPOLIS COLTS @ DETROIT LIONS, 50.5 O/U, COLTS 2.5

START: RUNNING BACK, JONATHAN TAYLOR, COLTS: The Lions are giving up an average of 23.4 fantasy points to the running back position.  Taylor is leading all Colts running backs with a 52.22% snap count average.  

SLEEPER: WIDE RECEIVER, MARCUS JOHNSON, COLTS: In the Colts’ Week 6 matchup Johnson was targeted eight times for five receptions and 108 yards.  His snap counts have increased from 47% Week 4, 54% Week 5 to 63% Week 6.

SIT: RUNNING BACK, KERRYON JOHNSON, LIONS: Johnson is an afterthought in Detroit.  In Week 7 he was on the field for just 14 snaps with zero rushing attempts and zero targets.  He isn’t only a sit for this game but also a drop to get better production on your roster. 

And if you are thinking of playing any of the Lions running backs, remember that the Colts are the fifth best in limiting fantasy points to the running back position. 

MINNESOTA VIKINGS @ GREEN BAY PACKERS, 54.5 O/U, PACKERS 7

This is another divisional match-up.  This game is also a rematch from Week 1, where the Packers won 43-34.

START: WIDE RECEIVER, ADAM THIELEN, VIKINGS: The Vikings have had a week to get things on track, which should mean going with your studs.  In the Week 1 meeting Thielen was targeted eight times for six receptions, 110 yards and two touchdowns.  The Packers for their part are in the bottom five in fantasy points to wide receivers, giving up an average of 26.4 a game. 

SLEEPER: TIGHT END, IRV SMITH, VIKINGS: There has been a concerted effort to get Smith more involved in the game.  In Week 1 he was targeted one time for one reception.  He has seen both his targets and snap counts increase from the one target and 60% snap count in Week 1 to 79% snap count and five targets in Week 6.  

SIT: RUNNING BACK, AJ DILLION, PACKERS: Last week should have been Dillion’s week with Aaron Jones out of the lineup.  Instead, he was on the field for 23% of the offensive snaps and had 11 yards on five carries.  He had zero goal-line caries and only one of his five carries came in the second half of the game when the Packers were in firm control.  

NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS @ BUFFALO BILLS, 43.5 O/U, BILLS 3.5

START: WIDE RECEIVER, COLE BEASLEY, BILLS: Beasley is the man when the Bills are looking to move the chains.  He has a 19% of the team’s target shares and he leads the team in red zone targets.  In a divisional match-up that looks to be competitive (although it should not) Beasley will be the safety valve that gets the Bills going. 

SLEEPER: RUNNING BACK, DAMIEN HARRIS, PATRIOTS: There is no explanation for what exactly is happening in New England.  Their offense is struggling and in the past they could rely on the quarterback to right the ship.  This season it may be slightly different.  In the collapse of last week, Harris ran the ball 12 times for 58 yards, he also had one target for one reception for 12 yards.  It is never a safe bet to rely on Bill Belichick for running back play, but in this chaos it should be Harris.  

SIT: QUARTERBACK, CAM NEWTON, PATRIOTS: This is a hard call because the Bills are allowing the fourth most fantasy points to the quarterback position.  But Newton has been bad since he came back from Covid, culminating in his benching after throwing three interceptions and zero touchdowns last week against the San Francisco 49ers. 

Opposing quarterbacks have posted a 107.2 QBR so far this season against the Bills defense.  But again, Newton has been bad.

TENNESSEE TITANS @ CINCINNATI BENGALS, 54.5 O/U, TITANS 6

START: QUARTERBACK, RYAN TANNEHILL, TITANS: Tannehill is proving to be pretty much match-up proof.  He managed 220 passing yards and two touchdowns against the Steelers defense (garbage time points count in fantasy).  This week he has a much easier match up against 25th passing defense in the Cincinnati Bengals.  

SLEEPER: QUARTERBACK, JOE BURROW, BENGALS: It is a disservice to label Burrow a sleeper at this point of the season.  Even playing with one of the most porous offensive lines he manages to excel.  Last week against the Cleveland Browns he put up 406 passing yards, three touchdowns and one interception.  The Bengals rank sixth in team passing play percentage at 63.51%.  With the one of the three highest over/under for the week, Burrow should be doing a lot of passing. 

SIT: TIGHT END, ANTHONY FIRKSER, TITANS: The Titans have both Jonnu Smith and Corey Davis back which completely devalues Firkser for fantasy purposes. Last week he was only targeted twice for two reception and seven yards.  

LAS VEGAS RAIDERS @ CLEVELAND BROWNS, 54 O/U, BROWNS 2.5

START: QUARTERBACK, DEREK CARR, RAIDERS: The team that surrendered the aforementioned 400 passing yards to Burrow now goes against a much more efficient quarterback.  Chances are Carr is not going to be throwing for 400 yards, but he has surpassed 300 yards in two games and has thrown multiple touchdowns in every game. 

SLEEPER: WIDE RECEIVER, NELSON AGHOLOR, RAIDERS: The Browns are giving up the fourth most fantasy points to the wide receiver position. Agholor has gone from being on the field for 19% of the offensive snaps in Week 1 to 78% of the offensive snaps in Week 7.  He also has seen an increase in his targets, last week he tied Darren Waller for team led with nine.  He finished the game with team leading 107 yards and one touchdown.  

SIT: RUNNING BACK, D’ERNEST JOHNSON, BROWNS: Johnson was supposed to be in a time share with Kareem Hunt when Nick Chubb went down with an injury.  Instead his touches have been dwindling.  He has gone from a high of 13 four games ago to last week’s one carry for seven yards.  

NEW YORK JETS @ KANSAS CITY CHIEFS, 48 O/U, CHIEFS 19.5

Of course there is a reason why you play the game, anything can happen on any given Sunday.  

START: RUNNING BACK, CLYDE EDWARDS-HELAIRE, CHIEFS

SLEEPER: RUNNING BACK, LEVEON BELL, CHIEFS

SIT: RUNNING BACK, FRANK GORE, JETS

 

LOS ANGELES RAMS @ MIAMI DOLPHINS, 47 O/U, RAMS 4

START: RUNNING BACK, MYLES GASKIN, DOLPHINS: The Dolphins will meet a very good Rams defense that includes Aaron Donald with a rookie quarterback in his first NFL game.  This is a play that believes Gaskin will get the carries to try and take some pressure off of Tua Tagovailoa.  It also helps that Gaskin has been targeted 29 times so is on hand to be that quick out pass that Tagovailoa may need. 

SLEEPER: RUNNING BACK, DARRELL HENDERSON, RAMS: It is impossible to know what running back will occupy the best space for fantasy purposes in the Rams backfield.  But Henderson has lead the charge so far in three straight weeks.  

SIT: QUARTERBACK, TUA TAGOVAILOA, DOLPHINS: I think Tagovailoa is going to be really good.  Just not against Donald and the Rams in his first NFL start.  If I were playing DFS, a contrarian stack of Tagovailoa and Gaskin is not out of the question. 

SUNDAY LATE GAMES

LOS ANGELES CHARGERS @ DENVER BRONCOS, 44.5 O/U, CHARGERS 3

START: QUARTERBACK, JUSTIN HERBERT, CHARGERS: Herbert is going to be a must start each week until he isn’t.  He is.  He is averaging 308.4 passing yards a game.  His touchdown to interception ratio is 12:3 and his completion rate is 67.4.  Herbert has been good both with a clean pocket and when under pressure.  According to ESPN.com stats when under pressure he is tied for 12th in accuracy percentage (70.7) and has a QBR of 100.9.

 

SLEEPER: RUNNING BACK, MELVIN GORDON, BRONCOS: Philip Lindsay is in concussion protocol, so Gordon may have the backfield to himself as he faces his former team.  The Chargers are giving up 4.5 yards per carry and last week James Robinson torched them for 119 yards, one touchdown and was targeted six times.   

SIT: QUARTERBACK, DREW LOCK, BRONCOS: Lock hasn’t looked as good since he has returned from his shoulder injury.  In his last two games has thrown four interceptions, zero touchdowns and has been sacked five times.  

NEW ORLEANS SAINTS @ CHICAGO BEARS, 44.5 O/U, SAINTS 4

START: QUARTERBACK, NICK FOLES, BEARS: It is time for Foles to show why he should be playing instead of Mitch Trubisky and currently the Saints are the team that may offer him that chance.  The Saints are giving up the second most fantasy points to quarterbacks (28.6). Justin Herbert passed for 264 yards and four touchdowns, while last week Teddy Bridgewater passed for 254 yards and two touchdowns against them.  The over/under is underwhelming but if Foles can get you two touchdown passes and a chunk of yards that’s a good thing. 

SLEEPER: TIGHT END, JIMMY GRAHAM, BEARS: There is a chance that Allen Robinson will be shadowed by Marshon Lattimore, and although he isn’t as formidable as we remember he has slowed down the production of receivers.  The Saints are less efficient with the tight end position.  They have allowed six different tight ends to score touchdowns.  The downside of course is that the Bears have played four different tight ends, so theoretically any of the four could score. 

SIT: WIDE RECEIVER, TRE’QUAN SMITH, SAINTS: Even with both Michael Thomas and Emmanuel Sanders out Smith was unproductive.  Drew Brees attempted 36 passes, Smith was targeted four times for four receptions and 54 yards.  The Bears have the fifth ranked overall defense and are eighth in opponents passing yards per game.  

SAN FRANCISCO NINERS @ SEATTLE SEAHAWKS, 54.5 O/U. SEATTLE 3

START: QUARTERBACK, JIMMY GAROPPOLO, NINERS: We know the Seahawks will score points.  We also know the Seahawks will allow opposing teams to score points.  As far as fantasy football goes the Seahawks are giving up the third most fantasy points to the quarterback position.  Garoppolo has shaken off the Miami game and has followed it with two good games.  Last week against the New England Patriots he passed for 277 yards, two interceptions and zero touchdowns, not great but this is a different defense.  Two of the last three quarterbacks who faced them have thrown for more than 300 yards and multiple touchdowns, the outlier was Kirk Cousins who had two touchdowns and 249 yards. 

SLEEPER: WIDE RECEIVER, BRANDON AIYUK, NINERS: The Niners running backs are dropping like prom dresses and in a game with the highest (tied for) over/ under it against a porous pass defense it is the catch and receive that rules.  Aiyuk had six receptions and 115 yards last week against a much stronger secondary. 

SIT: RUNNING BACK, CARLOS HYDE, SEAHAWKS: Chris Carson appears to be out for at least this week and that puts Hyde as the lead back in Seattle.  It is unfortunate that it is a defense that is second best in limiting fantasy points to the running back position.  

DALLAS COWBOYS @ PHILADELPHIA EAGLES

START: QUARTERBACK, CARSON WENTZ, EAGLES: Wentz was bad for the first three weeks of the season.  It didn’t help that his offensive line was in shambles and his receivers were injured.  His offensive line is still questionable and his receivers are no name guys who are performing better than expected…Wentz is better.  It also helps he will be going against a really…really bad Dallas Cowboys defense who are giving up the most points in the league.  What is so much better is that the Cowboys will come in with a -13 turnover differential.

SLEEPER: TIGHT END, RICHARD RODGERS, EAGLES: The Eagles love the tight ends and it appears both Dallas Goedert and Zach Ertz will be out for this game.  No problem, last week Rodgers played on 69 of the 81 offensive snaps.  He was targeted eight times and finished with six receptions and 85 yards.  

The Cowboys for their part have allowed the 10th most points per game to the tight end position.  So with the Eagles targeting the tight end position 11.7 times a game and the Cowboys giving up 2.06 PPR points per target, it looks good for Rodgers.  (Stats courtesy fantasypros.com)

SIT: QUARTERBACK, DALLAS COWBOYS: It remains to be seen if Andy Dalton gets through concussion protocol.  If not then the offense is left in the hands of rookie quarterback Ben DiNucci or maybe Garrett Gilbert.  What we have established is that none listed are Dak Prescott. 

MONDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL

TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS @ NEW YORK GIANTS, 47 O/U, 11 TAMPA

START: RUNNING BACK, LEONARD FOURNETTE, BUCCANEERS: It is super hard to predict what Byron Leftwich and Bruce Arians are going to do with their two talented running backs.  It appears on a limited sample size that Fournette is on the field for more snaps but Ronald Jones is getting more carries.  What is apparent is that Fournette is getting most of the goal-line work.  The Giants defense is pretty good, but so is Tampa’s offense. 

SLEEPER: WIDE RECEIVER, DARIUS SLAYTON, GIANTS: As good as the Buccaneers’ defense is they have surrendered 100 plus yards to three different outside receivers.  This is where Slayton lines up most of the time and since the game script predicts they will be playing from behind, throwing to Slayton who is on the field for at least 90% of the offensive snaps (92% Week 7) seems pretty reliable. 

SIT: WIDE RECEIVER, MIKE EVANS, BUCCANEERS: This could be that bounce back game for Evans who saw only two targets last week.  It could be except that he will most likely be shadowed by James Bradberry.  Bradberry has not given up over 50 receiving yards nor allowed a touchdown in six games.  Chris Godwin is out with a broken finger.  But the Bucs did acquire the services of Antonio  Brown who will also vulture Evans targets. 

 

GOOD LUCK!!! Come Talk at me on Twitter @neverenoughglt 

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