NFL Championship Game X-Factors and Predictions

Well, we are finally here. Championship weekend, and, more importantly, the weekend we finally get to talk about who the best two teams in football are this year. This is the weekend we get to find out what two teams we will see and talk about more on sports talk radio, sports sites, and sports channels than we ever thought possible. Nonetheless, these games are the best the NFL has to offer, and all of them feature some very talented players at all different levels and have interesting in-game matchups.

Arizona Cardinals @ Carolina Panthers:

Key Matchup: Larry Fitzgerald vs Cortland Finnegan

Why: I know a lot of people believe Josh Norman will be on Larry Fitzgerald, but the truth is, there is a very slim chance that will happen. This year Larry Fitzgerald finally moved into the slot, as head coach Bruce Arians requested, and he has been ultra productive. Why is this important? Because Josh Norman very rarely goes down into the slot to cover receivers. That job used to fall to Bene Benwikere before he was placed on injured reserve, and thus with Robert McClain playing on the outside last week, the job of slot corner this week falls to Cortland Finnegan. Finnegan is a physical corner and matches up well with Fitzgerald isn’t as much of a burner as number one receivers typically are. However how Finnegan plays will have a big say in if the Panthers blitzes work, as Palmer usually looks Fitzgerald’s when blitzed.

X-Factor: Jonathan Stewart vs Cardinals rush defense; ranked 6th in NFL giving up 91.3 rush yards per game according to ESPN Stats.

Why:  This is an extremely important part of the Carolina offensive attack as Stewart is the workhorse for the Panthers, and he sets up everything on the Panthers offense. A big part of the offensive arsenal for Cam Newton is the read option, as well as play action passes that sucks in linebackers and gives Newton clear throwing lanes, and a bigger window to throw into. If the Cardinals can stop the run game, and set up long third downs, it could stall the Panthers offensive attack that aside from Greg Olsen, doesn’t feature a big play target.

Prediction: Arizona 23, Carolina 17

Losing Tyrann Mathieu for this playoff run really hurts the Arizona defense, but this defense also has put an incredible amount of pressure on opposing quarterbacks, and the rebirth of Dwight Freeney and his spin move have certainly helped out. However to me Arizona is still the most complete team in the NFC, and probably the NFL. I know Carolina has a ferocious defensive front, and tremendous linebacker play, but their corners leave a lot to be desired and I think the Cardinals offensive line can hold off the pass rush, and stay out of third and longs to take advantage of their advantageous matchups on the outside. After all there may not be a team with receivers that go as deep as the Cardinals with Michael Floyd and John Brown also posing as serious problems outside of the incredible Larry Fitzgerald. Ultimately the Cardinals move on as Newton cannot get the ground game going, and the receivers finally get exposed with their lack of separation.

 

New England Patriots @ Denver Broncos:

Key Matchup: Julian Edelman vs Chris Harris Jr.

Why: Everyone knows by now how important Edelman is to the Patriots offensive attack, and how much Tom Brady trusts him. There may not be a better receiver in the league at getting open faster, and being more elusive in the open field than Edelman, as he has proven he can get open in less than two seconds.

On the other side, however, is Harris who is one of the best corners in the NFL, and is especially tough covering guys in the slot. However, the rub is that Harris has been battling a shoulder injury that has General Manager and Executive VP of Football Operations John Elway saying he is a game-time decision. Harris for his part, though, has said he will definitely be on the field, but clearly there is doubt if he even can play, and if he does, how effective he can be with one seriously banged up shoulder.

If Harris cannot go at anything close to one hundred percent then that will seriously hurt the Denver pass rush in getting to Brady, as there is virtually no way they can get pressure on him in less than 2.1 seconds. If Harris can play at his normal level, it could limit how fast Edelman gets open and could open the door for DeMarcus Ware and Von Miller to beat both Sebastian Vollmer and Marcus Cannon on the outside.

X-Factor: Broncos defensive line vs Patriots offensive line

Why: This seems so obvious to state because the Patriots have had offensive line troubles all season and the Broncos have the best pass rush in the league, as they led the NFL in sacks this season. The trouble spots could be Derek Wolfe against Shaq Mason at right guard, or Von Miller against Marcus Cannon in what could be a troubling night if Brady cannot get rid of the ball as he is accustomed to with both Rob Gronkowski, Edelman, and Danny Amendola on the field. The good news is Sebastian Vollmer held up extremely well last week, albeit against an extremely limited Tamba Hali and Justin Houston, but when Vollmer is in and playing, the line usually becomes stabilized.

Another boon for the Patriots is having Josh Kline and Bryan Stork playing at a high level as both have had some nagging injuries this year, as for most of the year Josh Kline has been the highest rated offensive linemen.

A key for the Broncos in the game will be to limit the gains on first and second down, and force Brady into obvious passing downs. If they can do that, and they can get pressure with just four, maybe five guys, this could be a long night for Brady and the New England offense.

Prediction: New England 34 Denver 17

I know a lot of people will say I am crazy for predicting such a lopsided game, but I honestly do not see the Broncos keeping this game close for very long. The last game these two teams played, the Patriots were without key contributors in Jamie Collins, Edelman, Amendola, and spent part of the game without Gronkowski and Hightower, and yet the game was one muffed punt away from being a runaway.

Yes, I know Brock Osweiler is not playing quarterback and Peyton Manning played well last week, as well as the fact Denver is almost completely healthy at this point, but the Patriots are a different team when they are fully healthy, and their offense is particularly exceptional with Brady, Gronk, and Edelman all together as a unit.

I see Brady running an up-tempo offense, wearing down the pass rush with their quick passing game, and Bill Belichick and defensive coordinator Matt Patricia devising a great game plan forcing Manning to throw deep toward the sidelines. This time around there will be no big rushing game for the Broncos with both Collins and Dont’a Hightower expected to be active, and Manning can no longer carry a team by himself leading the Patriots to advance to a second consecutive Super Bowl appearance and their seventh in the Belichick and Brady era.

 

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