NFL DFS DraftKings Cash Game Lineup – Week 9 (Main Slate – 11 Games 11/6/16)
Each week, I’ll create a cash game lineup for DraftKings. Since this is usually posted by Wednesday, the cash game lineups may change slightly by Sunday.
In cash games, you should always look for each player to reach at least 3x value.
DraftKings Points/(Player Salary/1000) = Value
Example: If Carson Wentz has a $5,000 salary and scored 15 DraftKings (DK) points, Wentz would reach 3x value based on the formula below.
15 DK Points/($5,000/1,000) = 3x Value
I will also present a 3x stat line. The 3x stat line is not a projection, but a hypothetical stat line that would allow the player to reach three times his value. When creating your own cash game lineup, choose players who you believe can reach the 3x stat line. If you look at a player and don’t think he can reach the 3x stat line, consider choosing a different option in your own lineup.
Week 8 Lineup Review
Our week 8 lineup did well enough to cash in all the 50/50s I entered. When Randall Cobb was ruled out, I mentioned on Twitter I was going to go move up to Doug Baldwin and down to the Patriots defense. I also swapped in Davante Adams when Ty Montgomery was ruled out. Week 8 was a week to forget with late injuries and so many chalk plays not reaching value. See last week’s lineup below.
NFL DFS DraftKings Cash Game Lineup – Week 9
QB – Aaron Rodgers vs. (IND) $7,800
The Packers have the highest team total on the slate, and are home favorites. The Colts rank 29th against the pass (all defensive rankings are from Football Outsiders DVOA), and the Packers running game seems to consist of short passes to receivers out of the backfield. This sets up incredibly well for Rodgers, so I’m willing to pay up for him this week.
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3x stat line: 300 passing yards, 2 passing touchdowns, 4 rushing yards = 23.4 DK Points
RB – Ezekiel Elliot at (CLE) – $7,900
The Browns are 31st against the run and Elliot is averaging almost 25 touches per game. The Cowboys have a high team total and are favored by seven points. I can see Elliot scoring multiple touchdowns and recording 25 touches again this week. With his volume, talent, and matchup, I can’t see how you fade Elliot this week.
3x stat line: 22 carries, 117 rushing yards, 2 catches, 10 yards, 1 total touchdown = 23.7 DK Points
RB – Charcandrick West vs. (JAX) – $4,400
If Spencer Ware misses this week due to his concussion, West becomes the best value play on the board. The Jaguars are 27th against the run, and the Chiefs are favored by 7.5 points at home. West is a capable receiving back, so he should see some work in the passing game as well.
3x stat line: 15 carries, 70 rushing yards, 3 catches, 32 receiving yards = 13.2 DK Points
WR – Donte Moncrief at (GB) $5,800
With T.Y. Hilton playing on a sore hamstring, I’m guessing the Colts may look to Moncrief a bit more than usual. The Packers rank 16th against the pass, but struggle against wide receivers. Moncrief has touchdown upside as he’s scored in seven of the last eight games he’s played with Andrew Luck against an opponent other than the Denver Broncos.
3x stat line: 5 catches, 64 receiving yards, 1 receiving touchdown = 17.4 DK Points
WR – Ty Montgomery vs. (IND) – $5,800
I’m assuming Montgomery plays, and takes some or most of the running back work. The Colts are 29th against the run, and 29th against the pass. They also have struggled against receiving running backs this season. If Montgomery is healthy, I expect him to get 12-15 touches, which is enough to pay off his salary against a poor Colts defense.
3x stat line: 8 carries, 40 rushing yards, 4 catches, 34 receiving yards, 1 total touchdown = 17.4 DK Points
WR – Tavon Austin vs. (CAR) $4,200
This play is no fun to write about. Austin isn’t a great player, but sees a lot of volume. Austin will have a solid matchup this week, and averages almost ten opportunities per game so far this season.
3x stat line: 2 carries, 10 rushing yards, 6 catches, 56 receiving yards = 12.6 DK Points
TE – Kyle Rudolph vs. (DET) – $4,000
Again, I’m targeting tight ends against Detroit. The Lions have given up eight touchdowns to tight ends so far this season and rank 27th against the position. Rudolph also leads the entire NFL, wide receivers included, in red zone target percentage.
3x stat line: 5 catches, 70 receiving yards = 12.0 DK Points
FLEX – Devontae Booker at (OAK) – $6,400
Booker received 19 carries and 6 targets last week even after briefly leaving the game with a shoulder injury. Booker had five receptions and scored from three yards out. He almost had a second rushing touchdown, but fumbled while reaching for the end zone. The Raiders rank 25th against the run, and Booker should be involved in the passing game and near the goal line again this week.
3x stat line: 16 carries, 82 rushing yards, 3 catches, 20 receiving yards, 1 total touchdown = 19.2 DK Points
D/ST – Kansas City Chiefs vs. (JAX) – $3,500
The Chiefs are 7.5 point favorites and have a home game against the Jaguars. The Jaguars have a team total under 19 points, and have given up at least three sacks or multiple turnovers in six of their seven games this year.
3x stat line: 14-20 points against, 4 sacks, 3 turnovers = 11.0 DK Points (3.14x)
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