NFL: Great trade robbery part two

My first reaction to the Rams moving up to acquire the number one pick in the upcoming NFL Draft was WOW…….they gave up what?? Is that a miss-print????? In this draft??? Uhhhhhh????

I would imagine this is how folks felt when Jimmy Johnson pulled off the Great Trade Robbery with the Vikings in the early 90’s. The Great Trade Robbery, in summary, was a trade between the Cowboys and the Vikings. Hershel Walker was the centerpiece of the trade going from the Cowboys to the Vikings for an absurd amount of draft picks and players. Details of the trade can be found here If the players were released the Cowboys received a draft pick in return. Johnson eventually released all the players attached and wisely took the draft picks and selected the foundation for the early 90’s Cowboys dynasty (Johnson was also able to use picks acquired to trade up for the number one overall pick…..more on that trade later).

Trading for the overall number one pick or trading a player drafted number one overall in the NFL is pretty rare. Since 1970, there have been just nine times where two teams agreed on a trade knowing that it was for the first overall draft pick. Five times the number one overall pick was traded since 1991. The results have been a mixed bag.

1. In 2004, the Giants and Chargers swapped quarterbacks in the Eli Manning/Phillip blockbuster. The Giants received the number one overall pick in Eli Manning and the Chargers received the 4th overall pick Phillip Rivers along with the first pick in the third round (Nate Kaeding), a 2005 first round pick (Shawne Merriman) and a 2005 fifth round pick (Jerome Collins). Manning won two Super Bowls with the Giants (beating the Patriots……twice!). Manning served as the Patriots kryptonite during the 2007 season delivering one of the most clutch passes in Super Bowl History (to end the Patriots run for a perfect season. The Chargers built around Rivers, LaDainian Tomlinson (more on LT later), Merriman, Antonio Gates and company to several successful seasons with Marty Schottenheimer and Norv Turner. From 2012 until 2012 (Turners last year coaching) the Chargers had one losing record (when Drew Brees lost his job to Doug Flutie) and made the playoffs five times during that span. While the Giants won the trade due to the rings. I would imagine that if the Chargers could go back they would do the trade again.
2. In 2001, the Chargers were involved in another colossal trade. Falcons traded the 5th pick (LaDainian Tomlinson), third round pick (Tay Cody), and 2002 second round pick (Reche Caldwell) to San Diego for the first overall pick. In 2001, the Falcons selected Michael Vick number one overall. Vick was a transcendent player coming out of Virginia Tech and enjoyed initial success with the Falcons including winning a playoff game in Lambeau Field and going to the NFC championship game in 2004. Vick would later become the only quarterback to rush for over a thousand yards in 2006. As much as Vick’s career trajectory went up from 2001-2006 the fall would be just as swift in 2007 Vick was arrested for dogfighting. Losing Vick caused the entire Falcons franchise to rebuild. The Chargers, however, won this trade hands down with LT becoming one of the best running backs in NFL history.
3. In 1997, the Rams traded the sixth overall pick, third round pick (Dan Neil), fourth round pick (Terry Day), and seventh round pick (Koy Detmer) to New York for the first overall pick. The Rams selected Orlando Pace. Pace went on to become the premier Left Tackle in NFL history anchoring one of the best offense’s in NFL history in the early 2000’s greatest show on turf. The Jets continued to rebuild under then head coach Bill Parcels. An interesting note for this trade was Peyton Manning. At the time, Manning was undecided if he was going to leave Tennessee a year early to enter the NFL. Manning stayed in school triggering Parcells to trade the pick. This would be a game changer as Manning was selected by the Colts number one overall the following year and terrorized the Jets until the division realignment.
4. In 1995, the Bengals traded the 5th pick (Kerry Collins) and the 36th pick (Shawn King) to Carolina for the first overall pick. The Bengals selected Ki-Jana Carter with the number one pick. Carter had an amazing college career at Penn State but would blow his knee out in his rookie season and was never the same. Collins took Carolina to the playoffs and lasted seventeen years in the NFL. The Panthers won this trade by default.
5. In 1991 the Cowboys trade Ron Francis, David Howard, Eugene Lockhart, the 11th pick (Pat Harlow) and a second round pick (Jerome Henderson) to the Patriots for the first overall pick. The Cowboys selected Russel Maryland with the number one overall pick. Although Maryland never became a dominant defensive tackle the Cowboys envisioned; Maryland was a key contributor in building one of the dominant runs of the early 90’s Cowboys. The winner in the trade was Jimmy Johnson and the Cowboys. Another side note was Rocket Ismail. Ismail was the best player coming out of college but spurned the NFL and the Cowboys in favor of the CFL. Ismail would have likely been the number one overall pick that year.

Within these trades the franchise that traded up for the number one overall pick clearly had a player whom they coveted and that player was widely considered a franchise-changer. If not for some unforeseen circumstances (Manning going back to school and Ismail going to the CFL, Carter getting injured). The team trading for the pick had a player that every franchise would consider going number one. This is what is so puzzling for the Rams. Jerod Goff and Carson Wentz are not in the same category has Michael Vick, Orlando Pace, Eli Manning. This is a deep draft that lacks a clear number one pick, and the cost of the pick is concerning. To get the top pick from the Titans, the Rams gave up their first-round pick this year (No. 15 overall), their first-round pick next year, both of their second-round picks this year and their third-round pick next year. The Titans included their fourth-round pick and sixth-round pick this year.

That is a ton of draft capital. The Titans are now owners of the most draft capital in this year’s draft (pending a trade) and next year (pending trades and compensatory picks). Tennessee now has six picks in the top 76 of the 2016 draft. The Titans are sitting at picks 15, 33, 43, 45, 64 and 76. At this point, the Titans are the only team with two first-round picks for next year’s draft as well.

In the NFC West, the Seahawks and Cardinals both made the playoffs last year and are in a prime position to be contenders for not only a division title but Super Bowl contenders. The 49ers are a mystery but have talent on the roster in addition Chip Kelly has never had a losing season in the NFL. My point is this the Rams are playing for a third place finish this year possibly fourth place in the division meaning that the draft picks that now belonging to the Titans could end up being a top 15 picks possibly a top 10 pick. This trade may not end well for Jeff Fisher and the Rams.

With the trade, the Rams appear to be in the position to take a Quarterback number one. To make this trade successful for the Rams Carson Wentz or Jerod Goff need to pan out as above average starters in the NFL. LA has some pieces in places offensively and defensively but it all depends on the Quarterback situation. The Titans, on the other hand, have set themselves up for the future. With the fifteenth selection of the draft, the Titans could go a number of different directions. Reggie Ragland, A’shawn Robinson of Alabama, Jack Conklin of Michigan State, Taylor Decker of Ohio State are all players that the Titans could draft with the fifteenth selection. With the second round, the Titans could draft Derrick Henry to complement Marcus Mariota in the backfield then take a flyer on a player like Jaylon Smith of Norte Dame with the extra second round pick.

Drafting in the NFL is more about accumulating picks. Teams that are able to sustain success such as the Patriots, Steelers, Packers, Ravens collect drafts picks by trading down and using the compensatory picks to their advantage. The Titans may be years away from contention but the process is very similar to what the Cowboys did in the early 90’s. The Cowboys selected Troy Aikman number one overall then made the most famous trade in NFL history accumulating picks (accumulating picks would be an understatement) that would lay the foundation for the Cowboys dynasty of the early 90’s. The Cowboys won three Super Bowl runs during the 90’s and could have been more if not for the ego fueled power struggle that engulfed Jimmy Johnson and Jerry Jones. Now it is up to the Titans to select the right players with these picks (or make the appropriate trades with the picks). This trade will set the tone for the Rams and Titans for the next several years. If Goff or Wentz turns out to be a superstar then the Rams will win this trade regardless of whom the Titans select (quarterback on a rookie contract….NFL best asset)or the Goff and Wentz ends up as busts, the Titans select Pro Bowl caliber players and build a consistent winner off the Great Trade Robbery part two.

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