NFL: Offseason story lines to watch

With the NFL combine starting on February 28th and Free agency starting on March 9 the NFL has no off-season. Even Bill Belichick said he was “five weeks behind 30 teams in the league in preparing for the 2017 season” after beating the Falcons in the greatest comeback in Super Bowl history.

What will the Browns do?

Cleveland has thirteen picks in the upcoming draft including the number one and number twelve pick in the first round. Along with an abundance of picks, the Browns have over a hundred million in cap space basically controlling the NFL offseason. Chief Strategy Officer Paul DePodesta has already shown a willingness to trade down in the draft accumulating as many picks as possible. It is very rare for teams to trade for an overall number one pick without an elite quarterback in mind (last year’s Jered Goff and Carson Wentz trades are the exception, not the rule). Since 2000 only three defensive players have been drafted number one Courtney Brown in 2000, Mario Williams in 2006, and Jadeveon Clowney in 2014. Depending on how the draft goes Cleveland should aim to trade the number twelve pick and continue acquiring more picks.

Where do the Quarterbacks land?

I can’t remember a free agency class being so deep with veteran quarterbacks. Kirk Cousins, Jay Cutler, Sam Bradford, Colin Kaepernick, Tony Romo, Jimmy Garoppolo and Ryan Fitzpatrick are all available either through free agency or through a trade. Teams like the  Texans, Jaguars, Broncos, Rams could all be in the market to either sign or trade for a veteran quarterback. One of the more interesting quarterback storylines is what are the Bills going to do with Tyrod Taylor? Taylor has performed well for Buffalo since 2015, however after being benched last season the relationship between player and front office may have soured.

What do teams do with their veteran running backs?

With a deep class of running backs available for the NFL draft teams have to make a decision on veteran running backs. Minnesota could move on from Adrian Peterson and his eighteen million dollar cap hit (highest among running backs in the NFL). Peterson will be a free agent next season so if the Vikings release him they would not have to eat any dead money. Trading for Sam Bradford cost Minnesota a first round pick but Stanford’s Christian McCaffrey is projected to be a second-rounder or if Minnesota wants a power back like Peterson Texas’s D’onta Foreman is projected as a second rounder as well. The Carolina Panthers will undoubtedly move on from Jonathan Stewart this offseason. Stewart has battled injuries the past few seasons in Carolina and has an 8.2 million dollar cap hit. Releasing Stewart will only cost the Panthers 3.5 million dollars. Jamaal Charles has been a fan favorite in Kansas City since his breakout season in 2009 but may find himself released this off-season. Charles is due six million dollars this season and if released would not cause the Chiefs any dead money.

Where do all the pass-rushers land?

Several Pass rushers could be available when free agency begin on March 9th. Jason Pierre-Paul, Calais Campbell, Lamar Houston, Chandler Jones, Melvin Ingram, and Nick Perry are all free agents. Elvin Dumervil could be a cap causality in Baltimore, same with Connor Barwin in Philadelphia, Mario Williams has underperformed his contract thus far with the Dolphins. A very unlikely move would be the Packers releasing Clay Matthews. Matthews is due 15.2 million dollars this season (which is very expensive inside linebacker in the 3-4 scheme). If the Packers release Matthews then they would save 11.1 million which could be used to sign anyone who can play in the secondary. A more likely scenario is that Green Bay restructures Matthews contract.

Do the Patriots trade Jimmy Garoppolo and or Gronk?

Bill Belichick has a history of trading Tom Brady’s back-ups. Drew Bledsoe was traded before the 2003 NFL Draft to the Bills for a first round pick, Matt Cassel (along with Mike Vrabel) was traded to the Chiefs in 2009 for a second round pick, Ryan Mallet was traded for a 7th round pick in 2014. It is only a matter of time before Belichick trades Garoppolo. The Brown’s number twelve pick is too high for a quarterback with only a few starts under his belt but a late first rounder like the Texans have would work perfectly. The market for Gronk is tougher to read. The tight-end market is pretty thin and only OJ Howard of Alabama has been projected to go in the first round, however, teams may be skeptic trading for an injury prone tight end. A classic Belichick would be to trade Gronk for a low round pick.